Wisconsin Basketball vs. Purdue: Analytics Game Prediction

If you missed my latest Wisconsin Basketball Predictions, find them here:

Northwestern | Penn State | Indiana | Minnesota | Michigan St. | Nebraska | Purdue | Michigan | Rutgers | Ohio State | Iowa | Maryland | Indiana (A) | Illinois | Rutgers (H) | Purdue (A) | Maryland (BTT) | Northwestern (BTT)

Another really big win, this one after an extremely slow start. It was so bad I almost started kicking myself for taking PTO to watch this game. I was starting to think, “Maybe it’s better if I DON’T watch the games.” – “Am I the Problem?”.

But Greg Gard must have said something at the Under 12:00 Media TO that lit a fire under everyone. At that point, we were -73 in NET Efficiency: UW: 67/100 Possessions, NW: 140/100 Possessions. We finished the rest of the way UW: 111/100 Possessions, NW: 96/100 Possessions +15 Net Efficiency.

All of this without Chucky Hepburn, our best Defensive Guard, and our Offensive Engine. Truly gritty stuff from Max Klesmit today, who really slowed down Boo Buie; I had given him a lot of demerits recently for his defensive efforts. But boy did he prove me wrong today! He also stepped up for Chucky in a very quiet fashion, dishing out 7 Assists, I’m not sure that was mentioned once during the broadcast & shame on me for not noticing it either.

Oh, and AJ Storr played the best game of his Season. And Steven Crowl is now confident and taking 4 3PA/G in the BTT at a 75% clip. The point is EVERYONE is doing whatever we need from them to get wins. It’s what we saw before Kamari’s injury, and I’m so glad it’s back. It’s really fun basketball to watch.

Let’s take a peek at how our Adjusted Efficiencies are trending, inclusive of the NW Game:

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency:

The trend is back to where we need it, would love to see us consistently >120 Adjusted Efficiency. That’s where we were pretty much all year, and was that dip considerably in February down to 114.08. In March, we’re at 124.61, and that’ll be the job done all day every day!

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency:

Here’s what I said post Maryland:

“Getting Kamari McGee back has done WONDERS for our defense. It gives Gard the flexibility to demand more from Storr/Klesmit when he can go comfortably to a Hepburn/McGee/Blackwell lineup and not lose much offensively but get a whole hell of a lot more on the defensive end. That’ll make you play harder if you’re Klesmit or Storr, and we’ve seen that post-Rutgers 2H.

It looks like they’ve turned a massive corner. Credit McGee’s healthiness. Yes, individually, he’s not going to alter games. But his overall value to this team, as I described above, continues to show.

We are now 16-5 in games he’s played, 13-1 in games where he clocks >5 Minutes, and 7-1 where he clocks >10 Minutes!!!”

I’m just going to go ahead and reiterate this. We’re now 17-5 | 14-1 | 8-1 in those qualifying matchups. Now we know that our Offense isn’t sustainable without Chucky. But Kamari is definitely a more vocal leader when he’s on the floor. I can hear and see him on the broadcast, constantly communicating with the guys. Everyone’s locked in when he’s on the floor defensively, so it’s not shocking to me at all when I look at this next graph:

That’s the key right here, the defense is the key for this group, and what Kamari McGee gives them on that end of the floor is extremely important!

Adjusted NET Efficiency:

We’re back where we need to be from a NET Efficiency standpoint. I don’t think we’re close to being an ELITE Defense, or really have the ability to be. But if we can be competent like we were until February, we can win a lotta ball games versus a lot of teams. The right time to be playing your best ball is in March, and the Badgers are looking good…right on cue!!

With that, let’s dive into the Prediction Model for Saturday’s matchup vs. Purdue!!!

Wisconsin Basketball Prediction Model

First, let’s start off with what comprises my Prediction Model (See Below):

Pace:

Gard Your Fickell’s Model | 67 Projected Possesions

KenPom Model | 66 Projected Possesions

Torvik T-Rank | ???

Haslam Metrics | ??? (NOT UPDATED)

Height:

Wisconsin Basketball has the Height advantage vs. Purdue, with an Average Height of 78.39 vs. 78.21 (inches).

This Height “Factor” influences my DREB% Model but is only a part of the equation. Combining the overall Height advantage and the other Metrics listed in the Model (3PAR, FTAR, 2P%, 3P%, and OPP OREB%), I can then project out each team’s DREB%.

DREB%:

Based on all the combined metrics in the DREB% Model, Wisconsin Basketball is projected to win the DREB% battle vs. Purdue, with an expectation of UW grabbing 77.12% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities in Saturday’s Matchup vs. an expectation that Purdue only grabs 73.1% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities.

DREB% is arguably the 2nd most important individual metric in basketball and a huge component in “Stop Factor”, essentially my own Defensive Efficiency Metric.

Stop_Factor:

The Stop Factor Battle is expected to be DEAD EVEN for Wisconsin vs. Purdue based on my Model.

For those unfamiliar with Stop Factor, it’s looking at a Team’s ability to be efficient on Defense.

That can come in various ways:

• Low eFG% given up to your opponent
• Forcing a lot of turnovers
• Collecting a high % of Defensive Rebounds available.

A Stop Factor over 2 is really good, or in Rutgers’ case, indicative of a truly brutal offense and NoT eFG%!

Score Prediction | Model Table | EFF Ranks:

Final Thoughts on Wisconsin Basketball vs. Purdue

This is the last team we want to play; it’s just flat-out exhausting trying to defend Zach Edey. But we’ve got him, we can’t sit and pout about it. We’ve got to have the swagger that we’re playing well enough to where his impact won’t decide the game. That’s the only way you beat them, you can’t let Loyer/Smith/Jones get things going, because Edey is going to get his that’s a given.

The “OTHER” Analysts:

KenPom: 72 – 78 | +6 Margin

Torvik: 70 – 78 | +8 Margin

Gard Your Fickell: 75.19 – 76.94 | +1.75 Margin

Based on my Model, which puts significant weight to your adjusted performance over the last few games into account. It has Wisconsin as much smaller dogs to Purdue than KenPom and Torvik. Not sure how to account Back-Back-Back as that’ll certainly impact things. And if Chucky is another scratch these numbers are also not accounting for that!

We finally lost to Vegas, and I’m fine with that. I had been on a bit of a heater in beating Vegas when looking at how the Prediction Model is performing Against-The-Spread (A-T-S). Since I deployed the model, it is now 11-7 A-T-S (61%) in Wisconsin Basketball Games.

Over the Last 10 Games? The model is 7-3 A-T-S (70%).

And over the Last 5? The Model is now 4-1 (80%) A-T-S.

Responsible Gambling

It’s a quick turnaround, and back-backs are tough even for NBA guys. We’ll see how a back-back-back will be against arguably the Best Team in the Country. I’m hopeful for another strong performance. I think we should go all out, playing Chucky if he can go & Tyler Wahl. I think there’s definite potential that if we beat Purdue we can find ourselves on the 4/5 line. If we can beat Purdue & ILL/NEB I think there’s a legitimate case for a 3 Line Bid:

We’d be 19-5 Fully Healthy (Kamari)

Our “Potential” Quad Record in those 26 Games:

Q1: 6-4

Q2: 6-1

Q3: 3-0

Q4: 4-0

I’d put that resume up against anyone else vying for a #3 Seed. But the optics for the committee to do so are probably too much, especially when the team we’d most likely bump would be Duke.

So the chance is REALLY slim, but with any chance to get a #3 I feel like we’ve got to go all out for it.

On Wisconsin!

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