Wisconsin Basketball vs. Indiana: Analytics Game Prediction

If you missed my latest Wisconsin Badgers Basketball Predictions, find them here:

Northwestern | Penn State | Indiana | Minnesota | Michigan St. | Nebraska | Purdue | Michigan | Rutgers | Ohio State | Iowa | Maryland

Well, the model was much closer than what KenPom/Torvik/Haslametrics had predicted in last Tuesday’s matchup vs. Maryland. My Model predicted a 70.41-68.24 victory for Wisconsin. Whereas KenPom/Torvik/Haslametrics predicted a 67/68-61/60 victory for Wisconsin. My model, I’m guessing, puts a lot more weight on the last 5 games and the “adjusted” performance in those games. That led the model to show a much higher projected performance for Maryland based on Wisconsin’s poor defense.

And that’s been the story: Poor defense. It is something highly out of character for a Greg Gard coached team.

And it will continue to be the limiting factor for this Wisconsin basketball team. They had an opportunity not to get killed by the analytics, keeping Maryland under 1.00 PPP. But we allowed them to score 14 points on 6 possessions in the last 56 seconds. Open 3P jumpers and WAY TOO MANY fouls highlighted the near collapse.

Much of which is built off the same issue. Controlling dribble penetration or the lack of controlling it. We cannot guard the P&R and attacking dribble penetration from opposing guards. If we can’t figure that out, as I’ve said before, we WILL get bounced far too early in March. Getting McGee back as a competent on-ball defender will be a massive win for Wisconsin’s defense.

On the positive side…Chucky put together another terrific performance. He’s really becoming a “Complete” PG. Not just dishing, not just scoring but doing both throughout the game at the appropriate times. He’s continuing to put his best performances together again and again. It’s fantastic to see and actually raises our Offensive ceiling.

The Wisconsin Badgers offense is not the issue. Maryland’s defense is legit, and to put as much pressure on the rim as we did led to a good chunk of our FTs. We’re 38th in the country in FT Efficiency (FT Attempt Rate * FT Shooting %). Getting to the line doesn’t mean as much if you shoot 60% vs. 80%, but we shoot it closer to 80% than 60%. So if we can get to the FT line 20+ Times a game, our offensive efficiency will skyrocket!!!

With that, let’s dive into the Prediction Model for Tuesday’s matchup vs. Indiana!!!

Wisconsin Basketball Prediction Model

First, let’s start off with what comprises my Prediction Model (See Below):

Pace:

Gard Your Fickell’s Model | 68 Projected Possesions

KenPom Model | 66 Projected Possesions

Torvik T-Rank | ???

Haslam Metrics | 64.18 Projected Possions = (Projected Points / “Should” OEFF)

Height:

Wisconsin Basketball is at a Height disadvantage vs. Indiana, with an Average Height of 78.39 vs. 79.15 (inches). We’ll see how big of an impact Kel’el Ware will have in this matchup. This Height “Factor” influences my DREB% Model but is only a part of the equation. Combining the overall Height advantage and the other Metrics listed in the Model (3PAR, FTAR, 2P%, 3P%, and OPP OREB%), I can then project out each team’s DREB%.

DREB%:

Based on all the combined metrics in the DREB% Model, Wisconsin Basketball is projected to win the DREB% advantage vs. Indiana, with an expectation of UW grabbing 78.87% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities in Tuesday’s Matchup vs. an expectation that Indiana grabs 75.24% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities.

DREB% is a huge component in Stop Factor, which is essentially my own Defensive Efficiency Metric.

Stop_Factor:

The Wisconsin Badgers get a slim advantage in Stop Factor, coming in at a projected 1.69 Stop Factor to Indiana’s 1.63.

For those unfamiliar with Stop Factor, it’s looking at a Team’s ability to be efficient on Defense.

That can come in various ways:

• Low eFG% given up to your opponent
• Forcing a lot of turnovers
• Collecting a high % of Defensive Rebounds available.

Score Prediction | Model Table | EFF Ranks:

Final Thoughts on Wisconsin Basketball vs Indiana

Defense, Defense, Defense, I’ll continue to keep harping on this. That’s where this team has the most room for growth from an analytics perspective. Right now, based on my metrics, I have this Wisconsin Basketball team as the 129th-best Defense in the country. That’s not good. But, they’ve proven they can be serviceable defensively, but we just haven’t seen it as of late.

Before the 5 of 6 slide they were #66th in my Defensive Efficiency Rankings. This isn’t “Elite,” but with such a good offense, it was more than good enough to compete for a B1G Title and, more importantly (for some), to make a run at a Final Four!

Most of these defensive issues are on-ball, which to me are more or less effort-based, with a small portion due to athleticism.

So this is a very fixable issue, which continues to give me a lot of faith this team can exceed where expectations now sit. Getting Blackwell and McGee back and healthy will give a huge boost in their own right. But Chucky/Klesmit/Blackwell/Storr all need to have better footwork in getting over the top of screens to take pressure off our bigs playing 1-2 in the P&R. There are so many downstream defensive breakdowns that happen when we don’t do this very well. It’s not rocket science it’s just added focus and effort on the defensive fundamentals.

If we can get back to extremely fundamental defense, add to our guard depth with a healthy McGee and Blackwell. Reset your expectations of this Wisconsin Badgers team to where you had them on January 31st. If we can’t, grab the Tums…because there will be a ton of heartburn in March for Badger Fans!

On Wisconsin!

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