Wisconsin Basketball vs. Ohio State: Analytics Game Prediction

If you missed my latest Wisconsin Badgers basketball predictions, find them here:

Northwestern | Penn State | Indiana | Minnesota | Michigan St. | Nebraska | Purdue | Michigan | Rutgers

Wow, we’re officially in what the hell is going on mode for Wisconsin Basketball. This 2-game rough patch turned into an ugly 4-game skid QUICKLY. I laid out a semi-comprehensive tweet thread laying out my thoughts on where Saturday’s performance puts us in the “analytics” view. But also more of my thoughts around what specifically needs to change for Wisconsin to get out of this funk. Check that out here.

Let’s not relive what happened on Saturday in these words; it’ll only add more heartache. And I can assure you, we all don’t need more of that when it comes to Wisconsin Basketball right now.

With that, let’s dive into the Prediction Model for Tuesday’s LATE NIGHT matchup vs. Ohio State!!!

Wisconsin Basketball Prediction Model

First, let’s start off with what comprises my Prediction Model (See Below):

Pace:

Gard Your Fickell’s Model | 67 Projected Possesions

KenPom Model | 64 Projected Possesions

Torvik T-Rank | ???

Haslam Metrics | 65.7 Projected Possions = (Projected Points / “Should” OEFF)

Height:

Wisconsin Basketball has the Height advantage over Ohio State with an Average Height of 78.39 vs. 77.51 (inches). This influences my DREB% Model but is only a part of the equation. Combining the overall Height advantage along with the other Metrics listed in the Model (3PAR, FTAR, 2P%, 3P%, and OPP OREB%), I can try to reasonably project DREB%.

DREB%:

Based on all the combined metrics in the DREB% Model, the Wisconsin Badgers are projected to win the DREB% advantage vs. Ohio State, with an expectation of UW grabbing 79.93% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities in Tuesday’s Matchup vs. an expectation that Ohio State grabs only 74.42% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities.

DREB% is a huge component in Stop Factor, which is essentially my own Defensive Efficiency Metric. And I have now added adjustments to DREB% based on past performances. This is a new addition and has made the model much more robust!!

Stop_Factor:

Wisconsin Basketball gets a decent boost in Stop Factor, coming in at a projected 1.74 Stop Factor to Ohio State’s 1.50.

For those unfamiliar with Stop Factor, it’s looking at a Team’s ability to be efficient on Defense.

That can come in various ways:

• Low eFG% given up to your opponent
• Forcing a lot of turnovers
• Collecting a high % of Defensive Rebounds available.

Being great in all three facets contributes to a higher Stop Factor, anything above 2.00 is what I would consider ELITE Defense!

Score Prediction & Model Table:

Final Thoughts on Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State

The Wisconsin Badgers desperately need to get a win at home vs. a team they’ve already defeated this year. It’s now make-or-break time. If they can’t get it done, and continue playing the type of basketball we witnessed this past week. We have to seriously reconsider expectations around making the NCAA Field of 64.

The First Four isn’t real to me…

Looking at the schedule and my model, we’re only >five-point favorites in one remaining game (Rutgers at Home); the rest are extremely close, and we’re projected losers vs. Illinois & Purdue. If things continue to slide, there are larger and larger probabilities we will end up with less than 20 wins and double-digit losses heading into Selection Sunday. That’s a monumental collapse and could mean a First Four appearance….or worse.

Hopefully, Blackwell is back in the lineup after sitting out Saturday. Also holding out hope that Kamari is going to be back before March. Again, if things continue to slide we may be in a must-win one situation in the Illinois & Purdue games. To have a realistic shot, Wisconsin Basketball is going to need a full boat to get that done in those matchups.

It’s been a quick fall, as they fell ten spots in my metrics from #17 → #27 in just a one-week timespan. But we’re still #27; if things even remotely revert back to our season averages offensively, we will get to the coveted 20+ W & <10 L Regular Season Record. Also, given our SoS and Cumulative Quad 1 Wins, we would still most likely be in the top-four seeding territory.

While that would still seem like a massive underperformance, that’s actually a signal Gard has the program back to where people expect it. And given this year’s recruiting class and next year’s class, coupled with an even stronger core that will likely fully return AGAIN. We’re going to be set at this talent and level of play for at least the next three seasons.

Sign me up.

On Wisconsin!

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