Wisconsin Basketball vs. Minnesota: Analytics Game Prediction

If you missed my latest Wisconsin Badgers basketball predictions, find them here:

Northwestern

Penn State

Indiana

Defense, Defense, Defense. That seems like it’s going to be the achilles heel for this Wisconsin basketball team. That’s also a pretty big flip in terms of expectations many had coming into the year. And that made sense, Greg Gard’s teams have historically NOT struggled in defensive efficiency. Where they always seemed to fall short was putting the ball into the hoop. I can assure you both the eye test and the analytics are saying this Badger Offense is the real deal. Add in increased USG from Max Klesmit and I would hasten to bet they’re the best offense in the country!!!

Now, overall scoring & offensive efficiency is up in College Basketball:

So…this isn’t the WORST ranked defense Gard has led. The 2017-2018 team was “Ranked” worse at #66 but would give up about 1 fewer point per 100 possessions vs. the Average D1 Team (99.1/100 vs. 100.1/100).

With that, let’s dive into the Prediction Model for Tuesday’s matchup vs. Minnesota!!!

Wisconsin Basketball Prediction Model

First, let’s start off with what comprises my Prediction Model (See Below):

Pace:

Gard Your Fickell’s Model | 66.22 Projected Possesions

KenPom Model | 65 Projected Possesions

Torvik T-Rank | ???

Haslam Metrics | 64.68 Projected Possions = (Projected Points / “Should” OEFF)

Height:

Wisconsin Basketball has the Height advantage over Minnesota, with an Average Height of 78.39 vs. 77.62 (inches). This greatly influences my DREB% Model along with the other Metrics listed in that Model (3PAR, FTAR, 2P%, 3P%, and OPP OREB%).

DREB%:

Wisconsin Basketball does NOT have the DREB% advantage over Minnesota, with an expectation of UW grabbing only 74.72% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities in Tuesday’s Matchup vs. an expectation that Minnesota grabs 74.93% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities. Almost identical DREB% predictions for both teams.

DREB% is a huge component in Stop Factor, which is essentially my own Defensive Efficiency Metric. I’m still working on adjusting my DREB% model to account for past performance and see if a team can have outsized influence over the model metrics. Still debating over the HOW to do this:

• Do I look at overall performance vs. the Model and regress over that?
• Or regress over each factor and adjust each factor in the model?

This will probably take a few weeks to test out! But for now, we’ll stick with the current model.

Stop_Factor:

Wisconsin Badgers basketball has a major edge in Stop Factor, coming in at a projected 1.61 Stop Factor to Minnesota’s 1.37. For those unfamiliar with Stop Factor, it’s looking at a Team’s ability to be efficient on Defense.

That can come in various ways:

• Low eFG% given up to your opponent
• Forcing a lot of turnovers
• Collecting a high % of Defensive Rebounds available.

Doing all three at a high level will usually put you >2.00 in Stop Factor; UW is really close to being projected there. And here’s how they do it.

Wisconsin is fairly mediocre in DeFG% given up (Got a lot worse Tuesday Night), a bit above average in forcing turnovers, but ELITE in keeping opponents off the offensive glass. But given that even the best teams offensively struggle to make >50% of their FGAs (11 NCAA Teams shoot >50% from the field), it shouldn’t shock that Wisconsin is a Top-35 KenPom Defense & ranked so highly in my Defensive Metric. Nearly half the battle defensively is not allowing 2nd Chance Points, and Wisconsin does that better than 98% of the College Basketball!

Score Prediction & Model Table:

Final Thoughts on Wisconsin Badgers Basketball vs Minnesota

Dawson Garcia is an extremely good player, what’s even more dangerous for UW is that he draws a lot of fouls. His Fouls Drawn/40 per KenPom is 38th in the country. We cannot have Steven Crowl get into foul trouble…not only for the fact Nolan Winter is not nearly ready for the challenge but also Steven Crowl is such a dynamic offensive weapon. He can score Inside & Out, Draw Fouls, but what’s most important is his passing ability. That has allowed several plus opportunities for AJ Storr, John Blackwell, and Max Klesmit to exploit. All three of whom have done so at a really high level; which begs the question how much efficiency do those three and the entire team lose with Steven Crowl off the court?

This is pretty striking data…we’re just a “decent” offense with Steven Crowl off the court. With him on the court, which has been about 72%-73% of the game. We are an ELITE Offense!

Also, look at what John Blackwell, Carter Gilmore, and Kamari McGee have provided off the bench. All three have been massive spark plugs coming off the bench, infusing our offense with more movement and energy. They each have played their respective roles in outstanding fashion, that’s everything you want out of your bench players.

Look, in talking about this Wisconsin Badgers basketball team and its expectations. Everything revolves around the defense. If they can improve their adj-defensive performance by just 3-4 Points/100 Possessions, they turn into SERIOUS National Title contenders.

If they don’t…they’re much more 2008/2011 vs. 2014/2015. I’m extremely hopeful they can improve their defense. They have the tools athletically and schematically to be really, really good. Forcing teams into a higher % of Pull-Up Jumpers & Runners out of the P&R is EXACTLY what teams should be designing their defenses to do.

The problem is that in our P&R coverage, we’ve been allowing everything but those shots at times. If we can tighten up our P&R Coverage, the legitimate ceiling for this team is to be standing on a stage in Phoenix with confetti raining down on them! If we can’t, we’ll all have another sour taste of what could have been. A tale under Gard’s tenure that has been told too much.

But that’s also what they said about Bo Ryan until 2014, Death. Taxes. B1G Reg Season Title and a ticket home in the S16 or sooner. I’m here for 2024 being Greg Gard’s breakthrough year.

On Wisconsin!

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