Wisconsin Basketball vs. Rutgers: Analytics Game Prediction

If you missed my latest Wisconsin Basketball Predictions, find them here:

Northwestern | Penn State | Indiana | Minnesota | Michigan St. | Nebraska | Purdue | Michigan | Rutgers | Ohio State | Iowa | Maryland | Indiana (A) | Illinois

There are literally…no more words to be said.

It’s all meaningless without a tally going into the Win Column. And we’ve only been able to do that at a rate of 28% since Jan. 31st! The backslide has been MASSIVE.

How much can be attributed to Kamari McGee’s injury? Well Some. It certainly hasn’t had a negligable impact on this team!

But as his absence extends, that crutch to me should get smaller and smaller. Because, at some point, you have to adapt to a scenario where he doesn’t come back this season. Then, if he does, you only get the positive benefit.

The unfortunate reality is that we don’t have the necessary balance in our guard depth behind him. This is a failing of Greg Gard, plain and simple. Daniel Freitag can’t get here soon enough, and John Blackwell adding P&R ability to his game can’t come soon enough. It’ll add balanced depth to the guard position for Greg, something more minutes from Connor, Lindsey or frankly Blackwell can’t currently provide.

Kamari McGee was that extra ball-handler who could not just initiate the offense but do so at a high level. This is an underappreciated and EXTREMELY undervalued skill. Initiating offense at 23 Feet is much different than doing so at 25-28 Feet.

Small things add up, and we’ve felt the brunt of that in February and now into March. Hopefully, we can generate some mojo with a win against Rutgers.

With that, let’s dive into the Prediction Model for Thursday’s matchup vs. Rutgers!!!

Wisconsin Basketball Prediction Model

First, let’s start off with what comprises my Prediction Model (See Below):

Pace:

Gard Your Fickell’s Model | 65 Projected Possesions

KenPom Model | 65 Projected Possesions

Torvik T-Rank | ???

Haslam Metrics | 67.5 Projected Possions = (Projected Points / “Should” OEFF)

Height:

Wisconsin Basketball is at a Height advantage vs. Rutgers, with an Average Height of 78.39 vs. 77.37 (inches). This Height “Factor” influences my DREB% Model but is only a part of the equation. Combining the overall Height advantage and the other Metrics listed in the Model (3PAR, FTAR, 2P%, 3P%, and OPP OREB%), I can then project out each team’s DREB%.

DREB%:

Based on all the combined metrics in the DREB% Model, Wisconsin Basketball is projected to win the DREB% battle vs. Rutgers, with an expectation of UW grabbing 82.88% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities in Thursday’s Matchup vs. an expectation that Rutgers only grabs 71.76% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities.

DREB% is arguably the 2nd most important individual metric in basketball and a huge component in “Stop Factor”, essentially my own Defensive Efficiency Metric.

Stop_Factor:

With such a strong projected DREB% (well earned), Wisconsin basketball is also projected to have a strong Stop Factor advantage, coming in at a projected 2.02 Stop Factor to Rutgers’ 1.59.

For those unfamiliar with Stop Factor, it’s looking at a Team’s ability to be efficient on Defense.

That can come in various ways:

• Low eFG% given up to your opponent
• Forcing a lot of turnovers
• Collecting a high % of Defensive Rebounds available.

A Stop Factor over 2 is really good, or in Rutgers’ case, indicative of a truly brutal offense and NoT eFG%!

Score Prediction | Model Table | EFF Ranks:

Final Thoughts on Wisconsin Basketball vs Rutgers

Enough talk. More doing.

Let’s hope the analytics are right…because we are all in alignment.

KenPom: 70-61

Torvik: 69-60

Haslammetrics: 71.29 – 61.15

EvanMiya: 70.5 – 63.2

Gard Your Fickell: 71.44-61.02

It “should” be a 7-10.5 Point win for Wisconsin. But those are just words and predictions. It’s time for Greg Gard and this squad to re-establish that Wisconsin was as good as the analytics thought they were on January 31st. That team still exists they just need to find the mojo again.

Step 1 of that journey begins Thursday.

On Wisconsin!

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