Wisconsin Basketball vs. Illinois: Analytics Game Prediction

If you missed my latest Wisconsin Basketball Predictions, find them here:

Northwestern | Penn State | Indiana | Minnesota | Michigan St. | Nebraska | Purdue | Michigan | Rutgers | Ohio State | Iowa | Maryland | Indiana (A)

There’s not much to say. Nobody loves where Wisconsin Basketball is at right now. As I’ve said continuously, this team is going to be limited by it’s defense.

How we get better at guarding the P&R will be the key to getting us back into the 2nd weekend conversation.

1. Do we get out of our staple “Drop Coverage”?
2. Can our guards figure out how to get over the top of screens, taking pressure off Crowl/Winter?
3. Does getting Kamari McGee back right size Chucky/Klesmit minutes maximizing everyone’s play throughout a 40-Minute Game?

I hope that #1 is a NO. I’m very much a proponent with our personnel of going to Drop Coverage. I also don’t think when executed right…there are enough capable PGs/CGs that can do enough damage to hurt you through the midrange/floater/pull-up 3P game. That’s what Drop Coverage is designed to do. Not everyone has the athletes Houston & Iowa State have to get more aggressive with their bigs, as you have to have they can get switched off onto quick guards in a scramble situation and hold their own.

Nolan Winter & Steven Crowl aren’t in that category. I think getting McGee back and having our guards really focus on getting over the top of ball-screens is how we get back to a Top-75 Defense. On January 31st, my analytics had us as the #66 ranked defense in the country. Which was not great, but it was certainly “good enough”, given how strong our offense is.

Speaking of…because some people don’t seem to understand very well.

Our offense has been at its best since the 2013-2015 Final Four Teams. And it’s 4 Points per 100 Possessions, BETTER than any team in the Greg Gard era. The issues plaguing this team are all on the defensive end. Their offense is, without a doubt, Top-20 in the country. And quite comfortably so, as they’ve put up great numbers vs. every type of defense the good ones & the bad ones.

With that, let’s dive into the Prediction Model for Saturday’s matchup vs. Illinois!!!

Wisconsin Basketball Prediction Model

First, let’s start off with what comprises my Prediction Model (See Below):

Pace:

Gard Your Fickell’s Model | 69 Projected Possesions

KenPom Model | 67 Projected Possesions

Torvik T-Rank | ???

Haslam Metrics | 67.8 Projected Possions = (Projected Points / “Should” OEFF)

Height:

Wisconsin Basketball is at a Height disadvantage vs. Illinois, with an Average Height of 78.39 vs. 79.65 (inches). This Height “Factor” influences my DREB% Model but is only a part of the equation. Combining the overall Height advantage and the other Metrics listed in the Model (3PAR, FTAR, 2P%, 3P%, and OPP OREB%), I can then project out each team’s DREB%.

DREB%:

Based on all the combined metrics in the DREB% Model, Wisconsin Basketball is projected to lose the DREB% battle vs. Illinois, with an expectation of UW grabbing 70.47% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities in Tuesday’s Matchup vs. an expectation that Illinois grabs 74.66% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities. Illinois is one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country. They are #6 in Adjusted-OREB% in my analytics. So even though Wisconsin is near or is actually ELITE from a defensive rebounding standpoint. I’d say ELITE. Wisconsin is the #12 Best Adjusted-DREB% in my analytics. Even so the model is giving the edge to Illinois!

DREB% is arguably the 2nd most important individual metric in basketball and a huge component in “Stop Factor”, my own Defensive Efficiency Metric.

Stop_Factor:

Wisconsin basketball is also at a disadvantage in Stop Factor, coming in at a projected 1.30 Stop Factor to Illinois’ 1.52. Both of these numbers are low, and a testament to how good both of these teams are offensively but also how bad they are defensively as well!!

For those unfamiliar with Stop Factor, it’s looking at a Team’s ability to be efficient on Defense.

That can come in various ways:

• Low eFG% given up to your opponent
• Forcing a lot of turnovers
• Collecting a high % of Defensive Rebounds available.

EFF Ranks | Score Prediction & Model Table:

Final Thoughts on Wisconsin Basketball vs Illinois

Defense, Defense, Defense, I’ll continue to keep harping on this. That’s where this team has the most room for growth from an analytics perspective. Right now, based on my metrics, I have this Wisconsin Basketball team as the 129th (Now 152nd) ranked Defense in the country. That’s not good. But, they’ve proven they can be serviceable defensively, we just haven’t seen it as of late.

Before the 5 of 6 slide they were #66th in my Defensive Efficiency Rankings. This isn’t “Elite,” but with such a good offense, it was more than good enough to compete for a B1G Title and, more importantly (for some), to make a run at a Final Four!

Most of these defensive issues are On-Ball, which to me are more or less effort-based, with a small portion due to athleticism.

So this is a very fixable issue, which continues to give me a lot of faith this team can exceed where expectations now sit. Getting Blackwell and McGee back and healthy will give a huge boost in their own right. But Chucky/Klesmit/Blackwell/Storr all need to have better footwork in getting over the top of screens to take pressure off our bigs playing 1-2 in the P&R. There are so many downstream defensive breakdowns that happen when we don’t do this very well. It’s not rocket science it’s just added focus and effort on the defensive fundamentals.

If we can return to extremely fundamental defense, add to our guard depth with a healthy McGee and Blackwell. Reset your expectations of this Wisconsin Basketball team to where you had them on January 31st. If we can’t, grab the Tums…because there will be a ton of heartburn in March for Badger Fans!*

That’s it. That’s all there is to say, as unfortunately, the issues have remained constant. Enough of the excuses around McGee being out. We have to start playing like we’ll never get him back, it’s adapt or die at this point. And if you get him back great! Just stop counting on it to happen…

It’s put up or shut up time for this Wisconsin Basketball team. If they can’t put up Saturday vs. Illinois and get a massive confidence-boosting win. We rally behind them and will them to make a run in March.

If they don’t, it’s shut-up time for Badger fans, and we retreat until next season.

On Wisconsin!

Thank you for taking time out of your busy day to read our work at BadgerNotes.com. For more Wisconsin Badgers Athletics and Big Ten content, follow us on Twitter & Facebook. You can also subscribe to our YouTube Channel. You can also follow me on Twitter @GardYourFickell

Also, be sure to check out our shop, subscribe to our newsletter, and the BadgerNotes After Dark podcast, which is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and all other streaming platforms. Because of your support, we have become one of the fastest-growing independent media outlets focused on giving a voice to the fans!