Wisconsin Basketball Must Return to Its Roots to Stop the Skid

This is a Wisconsin basketball season from bizarro world. A program that for so long was built around its defensive identity has lost it. The Badgers team that was ranked as high as No. 6 in the AP Poll this season is nowhere to be found. What happened to the team that was once a dark-horse Final Four contender?

At this point, making the case for Wisconsin as a Final Four hopeful feels foolish, but the highs of the season’s first three months, although they feel far away now, did not happen accidentally. In the pair of games Wisconsin has won of late, it showed flashes of its ability to be a team much better than the one fans saw most of the last four weeks.

Wisconsin Basketball Lost Its Defensive Identity Despite Roster Cohesion

Mar 28, 2023; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Greg Gard looks on during the first half against the North Texas Mean Green at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

Despite last season’s failures, Wisconsin had a defense that allowed it to steal games. Propelled by the country’s 19th-best defense by adjusted efficiency, according to Kenpom, the Badgers snagged seven wins over NCAA Tournament teams. In those victories, UW held its opponents to 61.1 points in regulation. Even in last season’s 15 losses, Wisconsin allowed only 65.1 points in regulation per game. In eight games this February, the Badgers allowed opponents to score 71 points in regulation on average.

That large jump in points allowed is mind-boggling. Especially since Wisconsin basketball returned all five of its starters from last season. Keeping a roster together in college basketball today is no easy task. Usually, under Badgers head coach Greg Gard, that continuity reaps rewards on the defensive end. According to Kenpom, UW had the highest minutes continuity and was ranked 17th in Division 1 Experience in the 2017-18 season in which it had the 9th ranked defense. The following season, Wisconsin dropped to the 66th-ranked defense behind a Minutes Continuity ranking of 280th and D1 Experience of 300th – each the worst mark for the program in the Kenpom era.

Personnel Helping and Hampering the Wisconsin Badgers Defense

Jan 6, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard AJ Storr (2) and Wisconsin Badgers guard Connor Essegian (3) look on as the Wisconsin Badgers take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at the Kohl Center. Mandatory Credit: Kayla Wolf-USA TODAY Sports

Among the returning starters is Connor Essegian. The young guard’s play has been the subject of tireless debate this season. After suffering an early injury, the sophomore slipped further down Gard’s bench. Along the way, Gard put Essegian’s defensive play under a microscope. Gard was asked about the 2023 Big Ten All-Freshman Team selection in December. The two-time Big Ten Coach of the Year said Essegian “is in a funk right now defensively.” No, Gard cannot simply bench every player on the roster for being “in a funk” defensively, but his handling of Essegian looks perplexing with hindsight.

Young wing players AJ Storr and John Blackwell have largely replaced Essegian’s role in the rotation. Storr, Wisconsin’s leading scorer, has brought an offensive element the Badgers severely lacked. However, the 2023 Big East All-Freshman Team honoree has struggled on the other end of the floor. Blackwell often replaces Storr on defensive possessions in the closing minutes of tight games. If Gard truly values his team’s defensive identity, Blackwell might deserve even more minutes. To Gard’s credit, Storr only played one more minute than Blackwell in UW’s 74-70 loss at Indiana – the smallest difference in playing time between the two Badgers newcomers against power conference competition all season.

Wisconsin Basketball Creating Offense at Expense of Its Defense

Nov 6, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Max Klesmit (11) celebrates a three pointer during the second half against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at the Kohl Center. Mandatory Credit: Kayla Wolf-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive effort and offensive prowess are not inversely related. The 2015 Wisconsin Badgers defended hard and had one of the most efficient offenses ever. This season, however, there is reason to believe Wisconsin is losing its defensive identity in the luster of its early offensive success.

Scoring in college basketball is up overall, but the rate at which UW scores and allows points is a historical anomaly. This season, the Badgers scored more points in a single game than they have since 1995 with a win over Arkansas State. On the flip side, they also allowed their greatest number of points in a game since 1995 in a loss to Arizona. By points allowed, three of Wisconsin’s ten worst single-game performances since 1998-99 have come this season, according to Kenpom. Two of Wisconsin’s six worst single-game performances by points allowed in Big Ten play since ’98-99 have also come this season.

It is not just the volume of scoring either. With the 54th-ranked defense in the country by adjusted efficiency, Wisconsin basketball is on pace for its second-worst defense in 18 seasons. In that stretch, the Badgers have only had sub-50 defenses twice. The 2017-18 UW team missed the NCAA Tournament. The 2010-11 team boasted the second-best offense in the country by adjusted efficiency, led by Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor – this season’s offense is far from that.

Where Are All These Points Coming From?

Wisconsin guard Max Klesmit (11) scores on Iowa forward Ben Krikke (23) during the first half of their game Tuesday, January 2, 2024 at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisconsin.

If you have watched Wisconsin basketball this season and bemoaned this veteran team’s inability to stop penetration, your eyes do not deceive you. By two-point shot percentage allowed, UW has posted three of its ten worst defensive performances since ’98-99, according to Kenpom. Indiana’s 69.7% shooting performance from inside the arc on Tuesday was the third-worst allowed by the Badgers in Big Ten play and fourth-worst allowed in any game by the Badgers since ’98-99. This defense is incredibly soft right now.

A chicken-and-egg question comes with this soft defense. Is Wisconsin chasing teams off the perimeter, or are teams choosing to take the ball inside? The Badgers do not allow teams to shoot many three-point attempts. However, the attempts UW has allowed this season always seem to find the net in key moments. Only thirty teams in the country allow a higher three-point shooting percentage than Wisconsin. Frankly, despite the low number of threes attempted against it, it is hard to give this Wisconsin defense credit for anything right now.

Wisconsin Basketball Needs to Bring Back Rock Fights

This is not a case to slow down Wisconsin’s pace of play. The Badgers’ victory over Iowa in January was played at the highest tempo of any Big Ten game Wisconsin has played since ’98-99, according to Kenpom. UW snagged that win by driving to the hoop and doubling-up the Hawkeyes in free throw attempts. In Wisconsin’s loss on Tuesday at Indiana, the Badgers recorded their sixth-lowest free throw rate in a single game since ’98-99. Wisconsin basketball attempted three shots from the line in the first half and none in the final 20 minutes.

Compare the loss at Indiana to UW’s two most recent wins. Against Maryland, Wisconsin connected on 28 of 31 free throw attempts. The Badgers made 11 more free throws than the Terrapins attempted. Against Ohio State, Wisconsin basketball attempted 14 more and made 10 more free throws than Ohio State. Clearly, remnants of what makes this team great are there.

Too often, when Wisconsin cannot get stops, it abandons its attempts to get to the free throw line too. Against Ohio State, Wisconsin allowed only 54 points. Against Maryland, a respectable 70. If the Badgers allow defensive neglect and offensive struggles to snowball, how much worse can this get?

The Wisconsin Badgers Do Not Look like a March Madness Lock

Mar 17, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Greg Gard talks with the media during a practice day before the first round of the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Wisconsin’s work early in the season has made it a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Understandably, that may sound perplexing because Wisconsin looks nothing like a March Madness team right now. Fans have seen this maddening decline firsthand, but it is worth putting numbers to feelings.

According to the power ratings at BartTorvik, Wisconsin ranks 25th in the country. That mark, measured using adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, is based on the Badgers’ full body of work this season. Currently, UW ranks 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 58th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Recently, things look much bleaker.

Since February 7th, when Wisconsin basketball lost to the Michigan Wolverines, UW rates as just the 92nd-best team in the country with an offense ranked 81st and a defense ranked 116th. This drop off is stark, but the significance of the drop off is even more daunting. Only 25 teams in the country have slipped more compared to their pre-February 7th standing than Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Basketball Must Embrace a Defense-First Mindset

Amid the Essegian debate in December, I defended Gard’s short leash with the sophomore shooting guard. My defense of Gard was premised on the idea that Gard is a defense-first coach. Since then, the defensive lapses on his team have compounded into collapses. A team which once looked like a shoe-in for a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament is now fighting for that fourth spot.

It feels hard to separate the Badgers’ defense and offense at this point. Going back to the beginning of this eight-game stretch, Wisconsin’s offense and defense often struggle together. Against Nebraska, the Badgers attempted 28 three-pointers in regulation (well above their average of 19.8 per game) and only shot one second-half free throw. If Wisconsin cannot stop opponents from getting penetration and is unwilling to work for it themselves, this team will continue to struggle.

Unless the Badgers are willing to put in the work, embrace the defense-first mindset of their coach, and bring that rock-fight energy to both ends of the floor, it will be a short March. It is time to stop chasing aberrational offensive outbursts in the program record book. It is time for Wisconsin basketball to get back to its roots.

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