Wisconsin Basketball Bracketology: Four or Five Seed?

Last year, during BadgerNotes‘ bracketology series, Wisconsin basketball was on the outside looking in of the NCAA Tournament. With 19 days until Selection Sunday, the Wisconsin Badgers are firmly in the 2024 NCAA Tournament field. UW head coach Greg Gard still has plenty of reasons to motivate his team. A win or loss tonight against the Indiana Hoosiers will not affect Wisconsin’s potential seeding much. Still, the Badgers are playing with a thin margin for favorable seeding in March Madness.

What Seed Will Wisconsin Basketball Be in March Madness?

Mar 17, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Greg Gard talks with the media during a practice day before the first round of the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Most likely, Wisconsin will enter the NCAA Tournament as a four or a five-seed. All but one of the bracketologists on the 2024 Bracket Matrix currently list the Badgers on the four or five line. According to T-Ranketology simulations at BartTorvik, Wisconsin has a chance at a three-seed. However, climbing that high would require UW to beat the Purdue at least once before the Selection Show.

The impact may seem small if Wisconsin only plays to bounce between a four or five seed the rest of the way. Do not fall into this trap. In my opinion, that difference is one of the most significant in the bracket for two reasons.

Wisconsin Should Avoid a Potential 5 vs. 12 Upset

12 seeds upsetting fives is a tradition as great as March Madness itself. The Badgers are no strangers to it themselves. Ethan Happ‘s career ended in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament when South Region No. 5 Wisconsin basketball fell 72-54 to No. 12 Oregon in San Jose. The potential 12 seeds waiting for fives in this year’s tournament are no slouches.

Of the four teams currently projected as 12 seeds in the Bracket Matrix, none have more than five losses on the season. Grand Canyon boasts one of the country’s most prolific scorers in Tyon Grant-Foster. Princeton, a team that made the Sweet Sixteen last year as a 15-seed, returned three of its five starters from last season. South Florida is having its best season in program history, winning its first-ever conference title in its first season under the guidance of Amir Abdur-Rahim. Abdur-Rahim led Kennesaw State to the NCAA Tournament last season. Finally, McNeese State, led by former LSU head coach Will Wade, can steal a game from anybody. According to Kenpom, it ranks in the top 16 in turnover percentage on offense and defense.

Wisconsin Basketball Can Give Its Fans an Easier Trip

Apr 4, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Sam Dekker (15) celebrates with fans after defeating the Kentucky Wildcats in the 2015 NCAA Men’s Division I Championship semi-final game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

There are two Midwest-based first-weekend sites for the NCAA Tournament in 2024. Getting to the four-line is key if the Badgers want to play in either Indianapolis or Omaha. Wisconsin fans will travel regardless of where UW plays the first weekend, but it is always easier when you have a reasonable drive rather than a cross-country flight.

The Badgers would likely be shipped out further away as a 5-seed because of a potential second-round matchup. If seeding holds, that game would be a four vs. five-seed. The Selection Committee usually avoids giving too much of a regional edge to five seeds in that potential game. For an example, look no further than the previously mentioned 2019 Wisconsin basketball team. Five-seed Wisconsin was sent to the West Coast despite first-weekend sites in Iowa and Ohio.

Wisconsin Basketball Bracketology: Key Games to Close the Season

Feb 10, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard AJ Storr (2) drives for a shot against Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Noah Fernandes (2) and forward Mawot Mag (3) during the first half at Jersey Mike’s Arena. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

With four games remaining in the regular season, every game is important. Especially with two losses separating UW from its current third-place spot in the Big Ten with eighth. For bracketology purposes, however, Wisconsin has two games of major consequence remaining.

A Key Win Remains for the Wisconsin Badgers

The first will come on Saturday. When the Badgers host the Illini, it will be Wisconsin’s best-remaining chance to secure a seventh Quad 1 win – something only five other teams in the country have. Illinois occupies a similar space to Wisconsin in current bracket projections, too.

It will also give UW a leg up on Illinois for seeding tiebreakers in the Big Ten Tournament. If it comes down to a two or three (or even four-way) tie for second place in the conference, having as many head-to-head tiebreakers as possible goes a long way.

Can Wisconsin Basketball Avoid a Bad Loss?

Wisconsin basketball can pair its wins with no bad losses on the season by defeating Rutgers on senior day. The Scarlet Knights make the trip to Madison for a rematch on March 7th. The Badgers’ loss in New Jersey was only a Quad 2 loss, but in Madison it is a Quad 3 contest. The lack of a bad loss is a huge boon to Wisconsin’s resume. Among the seven teams in the country with 12 or more combined wins in Quad 1 and 2, UW is one of only five without a Quad 3 or 4 loss.

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