Wisconsin Basketball Collapsing at the Finish Line – Time to Panic?

Wisconsin Badgers head basketball coach Greg Gard and his program are grappling with a familiar adversary: late-season turbulence.

Despite a promising start to their campaign that saw Wisconsin climb to No. 6 in the Associated Press Top 25 Poll, the Badgers now find themselves mired in a deeply concerning slump, raising legitimate questions about their ability to weather the storm and right the ship. 

Wisconsin is no longer ranked, nor should they be. The Badgers have shifted from being a serious contender for the Big Ten title, holding an 8-1 record in league play, to standing at 10-7 and no longer guaranteed of securing a double-bye in the conference tournament.

In this venting session, I’ll delve into the root causes of the Wisconsin basketball team’s struggles, assess the leadership of Coach Gard, and share where my head is at with this team during this period of adversity. 

Wisconsin Basketball Finds Itself in a Downward Spiral

To say February wasn’t kind to Greg Gard and the Badgers would be an understatement.

Wisconsin basketball had a disheartening 2-6 record for the month, never won back-to-back games, and racked up zero wins on the road.

Now, the Badgers season hangs in the balance, and Wisconsin faces an uphill battle to salvage their once-promising campaign. At the end of January, many people thought this team had Elite 8 potential — now they’re just hoping to squeak out wins against Big Ten bottom feeders.

The team’s most recent loss to Indiana epitomizes their struggles, marking their sixth defeat in eight games. Despite turning the ball over just three times, scoring on half of their offensive possessions, collecting 10 steals, and taking 22 more shots from the field, the Badgers still pissed down their legs when it mattered most.

Why, you ask?

Defensive breakdowns and inconsistent effort. Those all too familiar themes persistently haunt Wisconsin basketball and hinder their ability to preserve leads or close out games.

This team has no defensive identity whatsoever, and I have serious doubts they’re going to find one this late in the season.

Why Hasn’t Wisconsin Basketball Been Good Defensively? 

According to KenPom, Wisconsin basketball is No. 53 in adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s okay, maybe even ‘good’ by their metrics, but it’s also a far cry from what we’ve seen historically.

Why isn’t this team better defensively? That’s the question I’ve struggled with the most.

I’d classify Chucky Hepburn, Max Klesmit, John Blackwell, and Tyler Wahl as well-above-average to plus on-ball defenders.

I know he’s been out for a while, but Kamari McGee is another player I’d throw into that category as an impactful defender. Steven Crowl has historically been adequate — as has Carter Gilmore. Rotational pieces like Connor Essegian, Nolan Winter, and Markus Ilver aren’t great defenders, but they also don’t play substantial enough minutes to affect the team’s defensive metrics drastically, in my opinion.

AJ Storr isn’t a very good defender — but this is hardly all on him. There’s more to this — but I can’t put my finger on it. This team should be better on defense — Wisconsin has done more with far less than this group brings to the table.

We’ve seen over a large body of work that, when appropriately executed, Greg Gard’s defensive system forces opponents to take mid-range jumpers, limits three-point attempts, and avoids unfavorable matchups through its strict man to man principles. That’s what you want. 

In short, the system works. We have proof.

On paper, Wisconsin basketball has enough talent, depth, and experience to be far better on defense. The Badgers returned 92% of its production from a team that ranked No. 19 in adjusted defensive efficiency a year ago, so what is the reason for their shortcomings?

I don’t have the answer — but if Gard can’t effectively convey his message to this team in a digestible way that resonates and translates to better defensive execution, we’re likely facing an early exit in March and left talking about what could have been.

Should Greg Gard Be on the Hot Seat?

I’ve been a long-time Greg Gard supporter. He’s among the top coaches in the Big Ten and runs the Wisconsin basketball program in a sustainable way that keeps them in contention most seasons.

Most high-major programs would kill to have someone like him.

But I’m starting to have some doubts creep in. I’m not a reactionary person who would call for a coach to be fired during the season. Not when that coach has the 9th best winning percentage in league play all-time. Having won two of the last four league titles is nothing to shake a stick at.

That said, the best coaches tend to have their teams playing their best ball at the end of the season — and this is the second year in a row we’ve seen the Wisconsin Badgers start out hot and then fall off a cliff.

I don’t think Gard is on the hot seat by any means. But Gard’s ability to navigate these turbulent waters will be under a microscope. Wisconsin is an attractive job, and if things continue trending in this direction, it might be worth entertaining conversations about a change at the helm.

I’m not there yet.

In my opinion, Gard likely has at least until the end of next season, regardless of how the 2023-24 season unfolds, especially considering that most of the team besides Wahl could potentially return. However, there are undoubtedly cracks within the foundation of the program.

When evaluating any Wisconsin basketball season, I make an effort to take a step back and consider the overall body of work. You’re never as good as your best stretch or as bad as your worst, but it’s become harder over the last two seasons to know what exactly this group is.

I’d like to clarify: I still think Gard is the right man for the job. We’ve seen him navigate through adversity and maximize Wisconsin’s potential numerous times, and he’s a proven winner. Further, I appreciate his ability to adjust over the years, aligning his fundamental principles with the evolving nature of the game. But we’ve started to see higher levels of variance from the Wisconsin basketball program. That’s a problem.

Gard’s ability to make tactical adjustments, motivate his players, and foster a winning mentality falls squarely on his shoulders. Let’s hope the Wisconsin Badgers can rediscover their winning formula as they navigate through the final stretch of the season.

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