Wisconsin Basketball vs. Maryland: Analytics Game Prediction

If you missed my latest Wisconsin Basketball Predictions, find them here:

Northwestern | Penn State | Indiana | Minnesota | Michigan St. | Nebraska | Purdue | Michigan | Rutgers | Ohio State | Iowa | Maryland | Indiana (A) | Illinois | Rutgers (H) | Purdue (A)

Sunday was a gut punch. The group was pretty rock solid in all but two aspects of the game they have firm control over. Those were:

— 3P Shooting

— Defensive Rebounding

3P Shooting:

The Badgers have been shooting the ball much better from 3 over the last 5 games heading into the Purdue Matchup after a BRUTAL February from behind the arc.

Defensive Rebounding:

The Badgers were and still are an ELITE Defensive Rebounding team. But if you look at the chart below, there are three MAJOR outliers. Two of those are vs. Purdue & Zach Edey.

Our 3P Shooting was the only aspect that prevented our Offensive Efficiency from being elite. Our 2P Shooting was really good, our TO Rate was also really good, and we actually got a ton of offensive rebounds.

Defensively, we forced a good number of turnovers, and despite their hot 3P Shooting, they turned in one of their more modest NoT eFG% Performances of the year. This will significantly benefit our future expectations of their defensive performance, as NoT eFG% is a major component of the Prediction Model. And we’ve proven extremely strong DREB% performances throughout the season, and in our most recent games, so that won’t depress our DREB% expectation vs. Maryland.

With that, let’s dive into the Prediction Model for Thursday’s matchup vs. Maryland!!!

Wisconsin Basketball Prediction Model

First, let’s start off with what comprises my Prediction Model (See Below):

Pace:

Gard Your Fickell’s Model | 66 Projected Possesions

KenPom Model | 64 Projected Possesions

Torvik T-Rank | ???

Haslam Metrics | ??? (NOT UPDATED)

Height:

Wisconsin Basketball has the Height advantage vs. Maryland, with an Average Height of 78.39 vs. 77.74 (inches).

This Height “Factor” influences my DREB% Model but is only a part of the equation. Combining the overall Height advantage and the other Metrics listed in the Model (3PAR, FTAR, 2P%, 3P%, and OPP OREB%), I can then project out each team’s DREB%.

DREB%:

Based on all the combined metrics in the DREB% Model, Wisconsin Basketball is projected to win the DREB% battle vs. Maryland, with an expectation of UW grabbing 83.39% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities in Thursday’s Matchup vs. an expectation that Maryland only grabs 72.16% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities.

DREB% is arguably the 2nd most important individual metric in basketball and a huge component in “Stop Factor”, essentially my own Defensive Efficiency Metric.

Stop_Factor:

Wisconsin basketball is also projected to win the Stop Factor advantage, by a very wide margin coming in at a projected 1.91 Stop Factor to Maryland’s 1.53.

For those unfamiliar with Stop Factor, it’s looking at a Team’s ability to be efficient on Defense.

That can come in various ways:

• Low eFG% given up to your opponent
• Forcing a lot of turnovers
• Collecting a high % of Defensive Rebounds available.

A Stop Factor over 2 is really good, or in Rutgers’ case, indicative of a truly brutal offense and NoT eFG%!

Score Prediction | Model Table | EFF Ranks:

This Wisconsin Basketball team has played much better basketball with Kamari McGee back in the lineup, I talked in the Purdue Preview that we should be cautious of confirmation bias the Rutgers’ game “seemingly” provided. I put “seemingly” because I’ll argue there was a much larger sample with him playing than just one game.

We were 15-4 in games he played in and 12-0 in games >5 Minutes Played.

So, removing the confirmation bias…we are 15-5 in games where Kamari McGee has clocked any minutes, and after the Purdue Game, we are 12-1 in Games where Kamari has played >5 Minutes!

The sample size is quite large. Don’t let the PURDUE GAME be confirmation bias that even with Kamari McGee, this team has lost all hope.

The “OTHER” Analysts:

KenPom: 68-65 | -3 Margin

Torvik: 67-64 | -3 Margin

Gard Your Fickell: 73.95 – 66.38 | -7.57 Margin

I’ve got us as much bigger favorites vs. Maryland than Torvik & KenPom.

I’ve also been on a bit of a heater in beating Vegas when looking at how the Prediction Model is performing Against-The-Spread (A-T-S). Since I deployed the model, it is 10-6 A-T-S (63%) in Wisconsin Basketball Games.

Over the Last 10 Games? The model is 8-2 A-T-S (80%).

And over the Last 5? 100%…The Model is a perfect 5-0 A-T-S.

Responsible Gambling

Let’s hope in <20 Hours we get a win regardless of covering a point spread because I couldn’t care less about the A-T-S stuff. I want WINS in March for Wisconsin Basketball. That’s it. This is just a little fun thing to play with on the side, and maybe it adds some credibility to making my Analytics Preview a Must-Read before Badger Basketball games!

On Wisconsin!

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