Wisconsin Basketball vs. James Madison: Analytics Game Preview

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WE’RE DANCING!!!

The absolute best and possibly most heartbreaking time of the year for college basketball fans. Are we going to make a deep run, or are we going to be a single clip in the highlight run of a Cinderella?

I’m hopeful for the former and will be DEVASTATED by the latter. But the guys have to go play the game, and we’ll see what happens. So first, let’s take a look at James Madison and get a flavor for who they are, how they play, and most importantly, how well they’ve played and are trending!

James Madison Dukes:

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency:

The Dukes’ are an absolute WAGON offensively, even when adjusting for their opponents. Led by Terrance Edwards, who via KenPom takes ~28% of their shots when he’s on the court, on almost 1/3 of their possessions he will be getting one up. His size is going to present a matchup problem, but although his size of 6’6 may make you think he’s a similar comp to Marcus Domask, which I know Badger Fans are going to shrivel the thought of that. But I think his game is more akin to Dalton Kenecht’s another 6’6 Wing the Badgers struggled with earlier this year.

Although he’s an extremely good scorer, Edwards doesn’t really score it at all 3-levels from what I’ve watched. So in that way he’s a bit limited to what we saw from Knecht. But their play style is almost identical.

He’ll play off the ball looking for Catch-Shoot or Catch-Drive to the hoop situations, usually playing solo wing on the backside of a P&R. Or he’ll be the one operating in the P&R with the ball in his hands looking for opportunities to get downhill or for you to slide under the screen. We went Tyler Wahl on Knecht late in the game, and I think I like that matchup for us.

I say this given how it’ll help other matchups and doing so without sacrificing Storr on him. We saw how that went with Knecht early in the year. This allows Chucky to be on their PGs, disrupting the initiation of their offense. Max is on their 6-4 Shooter, shadowing him in a matchup where he is the superior athlete. And Storr on their other 6-8 Forward Wooden who looks to be more of an outside threat. Because if there’s one thing we can’t do is collapse our eyes and attention on Edwards because there are other guys who will kill us…especially from beyond the arc.

3P Shooting:

Because, boy, are the Dukes starting to shoot it EXTREMELY WELL. After their January drought, during which they shot it at 27.22% from behind the arc, they have been on an absolute tear in February-March. Shooting it >40% and CLIMBING!

And it’s multiple guys getting it done for the Dukes:

#1 Noah Freidel: 5.88 3PA/G at 37.6%!

#5 Terrence Edwards: 3.76 3PA/G at 36.3%

#13 Michael Green: 3.73 3PA/G at 35.0%

#0 Xavier Brown: 3.57 3PA/G at 34.7%

#22 Julen Wooden: 3.36 3PA/G at 41.4%!

#2 Raekwon Horton: 1.88 3PA/G at 35.5%

That’s six….SIX guys with >1.5 3PA/G, all of whom are shooting it >34%. That is dangerous. Again, it makes me want to put Wahl on Edwards so our other matchups are prioritized correctly.

I have the utmost confidence that with Wahl as the primary defender and Blackwell/Klesmit covering in spurts, that we can match up with Edwards. What scares me is these other players are highly competent 3P shooters who can get going, and we’ve struggled to defend the 3-Ball.

A scarier aspect is that the more this team shoots it, the more dangerous they are because their percentages don’t drop off as their 3PAR rises.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure this math out. But if you’re shooting a lot of 3s and making them at a very high clip, your Offensive Efficiency is going to go to the moon!

Here is 3PEFF x (RAW) Offensive Efficiency in CBB this Season:

It will be a difficult challenge for our defense on Friday Night, but if we prioritize our defensive matchups correctly. I’ll be at much more ease than if we try to match up Chucky/Klesmit and have trickier matchups outside of Edwards.

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency:

This almost looks like the inverse chart of the Badgers’ adjusted defense; JMU got after it on the Defensive end in January and February. But they have maybe taken their eye off the ball in March on the defensive end, dropping about 18.39/100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since January. And that may be who this team is more than what we saw in January and February. They were ~100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency to start the season in November & December.

So we’ll see who shows up in Brooklyn. Will it be the November/December/March James Madison Defense…or the January/February James Madison Defense?

Adjusted NET Efficiency:

Again, their Offense has been elite all year, but their Defense hasn’t been there all year. It peaked in January and February and valuated JMU up my Analytics. They’ve been in my Top 35 since Early February and are currently in the Top 25.

Wisconsin Basketball:

Wisconsin Basketball Adjusted Offensive Efficiency:

Our offense is absolutely COOKING. And while it’s not completely back to November-January levels, it’s certainly trending that way. I think had we not gotten banged up in the Maryland and Northwestern games, I definitely think we’d have pushed our Adjusted Offensive Efficiency to the High 120s.

Hopefully, with 4 Days off after back-back-back-back games, they can get as healthy as they did entering their opening B1G Tournament game vs. Maryland. Then a potential full-day rest between NCAA Tournament games will feel like a dream compared to the B1G Tournament gauntlet they just battled through.

3P Shooting:

One thing I talked about entering the Illinois game was our 3P shooting. And that, besides playing Purdue and our overall shooting slump in February. We’ve shot the ball really well from beyond the arc throughout this season:

3P Trend (Including ILL):

Well, we didn’t shoot the lights out against Illinois, and most of that was 2-9 output from Chucky & AJ Storr. Probably a bit of legs/base not being there as most of them were short…and for Storr in particular, I’d have rather those been drives towards the hoop. That’s where he’s at his best, getting to the rim!

What he needs to stop doing is taking those 3’s from WAY Behind the line…C&S’s & Off-Dribble 3s inside 25FT, he’d have my Ultra-Green Light. But when he pulls the trigger from beyond 25FT, you flop back in your seat and pray:

Wisconsin Basketball Adjusted Defensive Efficiency:

It’s time to discuss the Defense and what we can make out of Sunday’s Performance. Because looking at it in a vacuum, that’s a rough outing, but where did that lagging efficiency come from? Were they (ILL) scoring at will off their first looks, implying a high NoT eFG%???

NO!

We have been pretty good in Adjusted NoT Defensive eFG% in March, our second-best month of the Season, second only to November. As I’ve said before, we don’t need ELITE NoT DeFG%’s to win games with how good our offense is. But we do need it to be competent, and in that regard, we’ve been lacking in two other important areas on the defensive end.

The bigger issue for Wisconsin Basketball has been Defensive Rebounding & FTEFF given up to our opponents:

When looking at Adjusted DREB%, Wisconsin basketball had a pretty bad month of March, underperforming our Season Average substantially. But I’ll tell you, this doesn’t really concern me too much because those three games where we were below the benchmark were against Purdue, Purdue, and Illinois. Who are 16th & 20th in my Adjusted OREB% Metric, so seeing underperformance against those two teams isn’t a shock and is arguably expected. And we’re 1-1 when above benchmark against those teams and 0-3 when below benchmark, highlighting the importance that Defensive Rebounding has for delivering good Defensive Efficiency.

JMU is 51st in Adjusted OREB% based on my Analytics, so a though test for sure but not nearly the challenge that Purdue and Illinois present!

The other issue with this defense is that we’re fouling WAY TOO MUCH. We can argue and complain about the officiating in the Purdue and Illinois games, and I agree to an extent. But this has been a longstanding trend to close out this season. In February and March, our Opponent FTEFF Rates were 26.42% and 31.27%. Those are pretty brutal numbers, and we can’t blame the refs on a 23 Game sample size. Or even if we say when over-benchmark those games are due to the refs. Are you really going to do that for a 14-game sample size? I think that’s a bit foolish.

James Madison is pretty average in getting to the FT Line at a 34.2% Rate. But a deeper struggle for James Madison is that they are pretty bad once they get there shooting it at only 70.5%. Now, if we’re putting Terrence Edwards and Noah Freidel at the FT Line, that won’t be the case, as each of them shoots it >82%. The one who is pulling down the average is Bickerstaff, who has shot 23% of the team’s FTs. In those attempts, he’s shot it at 61.9%, bringing down the Team Average by 2.8%. An increase of 2.8% would put them ~120th in the Nation in FT% vs. 256th where the currently sit. So if we plan on fouling Edwards, Freidel, Wooden we’ll probably underperform the Opponent FTEFF benchmark once again and severely impact our Defensive Efficiency!

Wisconsin Basketball Adjusted NET Efficiency:

I’m quite confident with some good rest and not having to play four games in four days, Wisconsin basketball will be able to maintain much stronger levels of Defensive Efficiency. By keeping our NoT eFG% allowed low, keeping them off the O-Boards, and fouling much less! If we can do that, and our offense stays cooking…

WATCH OUT!

With that, let’s dive into the Prediction Model for Friday’s matchup vs. James Madison!!!

Wisconsin Basketball Prediction Model

First, let’s start off with what comprises my Prediction Model (See Below):

Pace:

Gard Your Fickell’s Model | 71 Projected Possessions

KenPom Model | 67 Projected Possessions

Torvik T-Rank | ???

Haslam Metrics | 67.22

Height:

Wisconsin Basketball is at a Height advantage vs. James Madison, with an Average Height of 78.39 vs. 77.18 (inches).

This Height “Factor” influences my DREB% Model but is only a part of the equation. Combining the overall Height advantage and the other Metrics listed in the Model (3PAR, FTAR, 2P%, 3P%, and OPP OREB%), I can then project out each team’s DREB%.

DREB%:

Based on all the combined metrics in the DREB% Model, Wisconsin Basketball is projected to win the DREB% battle vs. James Madison, with an expectation of UW grabbing 76.23% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities in Friday’s Matchup vs. an expectation that James Madison only grabs 72.10% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities.

DREB% is arguably the 2nd most important individual metric in basketball and a huge component in “Stop Factor”, essentially my own Defensive Efficiency Metric.

Stop_Factor:

Wisconsin is expected to win the Stop Factor Battle with an expectation we clock a 1.60 in Stop Factor, while James Madison delivers a 1.50 Stop Factor.

For those unfamiliar with Stop Factor, it’s looking at a Team’s ability to be efficient on Defense.

That can come in various ways:

• Low eFG% given up to your opponent
• Forcing a lot of turnovers
• Collecting a high % of Defensive Rebounds available.

A Stop Factor over 2 is really good, or in Rutgers’ case, indicative of a truly brutal offense and NoT eFG%!

Score Prediction | Model Table | EFF Ranks:

Final Thoughts on Wisconsin Basketball vs James Madison

We’re playing some really good basketball right now, but so is James Madison. And it’s going to be a tough battle.

The “OTHER” Analysts:

KenPom: 77 – 72 | -5 Margin

Torvik: 77 – 71 | -6 Margin

Haslametrics: 76.43 – 71.13 | -6.30 Margin

EvanMiya: 74.8 – 72.9 | -1.90 Margin

Gard Your Fickell: 78.35 – 76.86 | -1.49 Margin

Based on my Model, which puts significant weight on a teams adjusted performance over the last few games into account. It has Wisconsin as a much slimmer favorite vs. James Madison. EvanMiya is pretty much aligned with me, projecting a 1.90-point win. Whereas KenPom, Torvik, and Haslametrics have us as much bigger favorites.

We’ll see how things play out in our First Round Matchup with James Madison. Will we enforce our will with a significant size advantage? Or will they shoot the lights out against us? Can AJ Storr get to the rim at will and finish vs. an undersized frontcourt? Or will he settle for a bunch of outside shots off the dribble?

Many of these questions and more will be answered Late Friday Night. My Analytics say a slight underperformance on some of these key questions could very well cost us in Round 1. For KenPom, Torvik, and Haslametrics, they think we’ve got a comfier one on our hands Friday Night. We’ll see.

On Wisconsin!

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