Wisconsin Basketball: JMU Is NOT the Cinderella You Think It Is

Wisconsin basketball is as trendy of a 5-12 upset as I remember. The No. 5 seed has always come with some bad vibes. Since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, the lower seed is 53-99 in the matchup. In fact, a 12 has advanced to the round of 32 in all but six of the past 38 tournaments.

James Madison is a good basketball team. The Dukes have amassed an impressive 31-3 record, but is the luster of that big number casting a mirage over an underwhelming Sun Belt Conference?

Wisconsin Basketball vs. James Madison: Dukes Have Faced Weak Schedule

Mar 17, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Greg Gard talks with the media during a practice day before the first round of the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

College basketball fans will remember James Madison as the highlight of the first day of the season. All the way back on Monday, November 6th, the Dukes defeated Michigan State in an overtime thriller. Since then, however, JMU has lived in relative college basketball obscurity. With a strength of schedule ranking of 293rd by adjusted efficiency margin according to KenPom, Dukes head coach Mark Byington’s squad is far from battle-tested. Wisconsin basketball boasts the country’s second-best strength of schedule.

However, do not let the teams Wisconsin has played do all the talking. Take a look at how the Badgers played those opponents. Wisconsin has notched nine wins over teams ranked in the top 50 at KenPom, 13 wins over the top 75, and 17 wins against top-100 teams. James Madison has just the one – all the way back on Monday, November 6th.

Sure, JMU does not control the quality of its conference competition. It has had a pair of opportunities against Sun Belt regular-season champion Appalachian State, but JMU lost both of those games to the team ranked 81st at KenPom. Those were the only two games since their season opener that the Dukes played a team ranked higher than 121st at KenPom.

Badgers Basketball Is Much Better Than James Madison by the Numbers

Mar 16, 2024; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard AJ Storr (2) celebrates his dunk against the Purdue Boilermakers during the overtime at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Wisconsin is a markedly better team by the advanced metrics than James Madison. The Dukes, on the other hand, are no more of a threat than the average 12-seed. Oftentimes, the most dangerous twelves are underseeded relative to their efficiency rankings. That is not the case with a JMU. The Dukes are 58th at KenPom and 71st at BartTorvik,

The Badgers are not just better overall this season, but head coach Greg Gard has his team peaking at the right time, too. According to KenPom, UW is the nation’s 17th-best team at KenPom and the 19th-best in the country at BartTorvik. If you account only for games played since March 1st, Wisconsin is ranked 13th in the country, according to Bart Torvik.

Wisconsin Basketball Has the Matchup Advantage Over James Madison

Mar 16, 2024; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Steven Crowl (22) celebrates his dunk against the Purdue Boilermakers during the second half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Go ahead and call me a nerd. Basketball games are not played in a computer simulation. Winning 31 games in any conference is a remarkable feat. Byington and his team should have incredible pride in their season.

When it comes to the actual play on the court, though, the Badgers have clear matchup advantages. There is no advantage more important than the one from the man in the middle: Big Steve.

Badgers starting center Steven Crowl has feasted in postseason play. The Minnesota native has scored in double digits in all four postseason games, averaging 14.5 points on 64.1% shooting, including an excellent 7-13 shooting from three-point range. The two-time Academic All-Big Ten honoree has been the engine of UW’s offense this season. Wisconsin basketball is 15-6 when Crowl scores in double-digits and 5-1 when he records a double-double.

Crowl knows the importance of “changing [his] mindset to be more aggressive.” With that in the back of his head, it is hard to imagine the seven-footer not taking it to James Madison’s small-ball lineup. The Dukes’ tallest player, forward TJ Bickerstaff, measures in at 6 feet and 9 inches. With a three-inch and nearly 30-pound advantage, Big Steve could shatter Cinderella’s slipper before the clock strikes midnight in Brooklyn.

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