Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) runs the ball toward the end zone against the Oklahoma State Cowboys as his teammate wide receiver Chimere Dike (13) begins to react during the Guaranteed Rate Bowl Game at Chase Field on Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2022. Ncaa Guaranteed Rate Bowl
We are in a bit of a lull with Wisconsin football news. Camp doesn’t kick off until August 1st when the Badgers travel to UW-Platteville for a week. Recruiting is winding down as the dead period is quickly approaching as well.
There are a lot of unknowns about this team because things are going to be so different from teams in the past. And that’s a good thing. It’s exciting. There’s a ton of buzz around this program right now and fans are buying into it. So while we kill some time until the football season is officially here, let’s look ahead. Who will be the team’s MVP? Freshman of the Year?
Let’s make some predictions.
Most Valuable Player
Sep 17, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) carries the football during warmups prior to the game against the New Mexico State Aggies at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Some may consider this the ‘easy choice.’ Meanwhile, others may think it’s foolish because Phil Longo is bringing the Air Raid offense to the Wisconsin football team. But I truly think Allen is going to be the most important piece in the offense this year and a huge reason if it is successful.
Last season, Allen ran into stacked boxes all season long. Because of the sub-par quarterback play, teams were comfortable putting eight or nine guys in the box to stop the run. When he got bottled up, the offense essentially stalled because the passing game was so ineffective last year.
If teams want to continue to stack the box against the Badgers, that’s fine. Tanner Mordecai will just pass all over you. If you play a nickel or dime defense to stop the pass, good luck stopping Allen running up the middle. It truly feels like a pick-your-poison situation for the defense. Chez Mellusi is a very capable running back, but if Braelon Allen wasn’t RB1 for the Badgers, I don’t think this offense would be set up to succeed as well as it is this season.
Runner up: Tanner Mordecai
Wisconsin Football Transfer of the Year
Wisconsin quarterback Tanner Mordecai avoids the rush of outside linebacker T.J. Bollers during The Launch, the team’s intra-squad scrimmage at Camp Randall Stadium Saturday April 22, 2023. Uwgrid Launch April 22 202three
This year, the Wisconsin football team brought in 14 transfer players to the program with the new coaching staff. However, I wouldn’t expect that to be the norm. I would expect Fickell and co. to use the transfer portal as needed in the future. But not to the extent they did this year.
Since the transfer portal isn’t going anywhere, I think a ‘Transfer of the Year’ category will be necessary from now on. This will be a prediction on which player coming in from the transfer portal will make the biggest impact on the Badgers this season.
Unlike the Braelon Allen MVP pick, I think this is a very obvious choice. Quarterbacks almost always have the most impact on a football game. They touch the ball every offensive play. Mordecai was brought in by this staff to lead the Wisconsin football team into their new era with his final year of eligibility left.
He transferred to Wisconsin from SMU, where he spent two years and put up video game numbers. He threw for over 7,000 yards and 72 touchdowns. Those are numbers Wisconsin football fans don’t have a lot of experience with. Granted, he wasn’t playing high-level teams at SMU like he will with Wisconsin. But if he can even be close to that with the Badgers, this offense is going to be very difficult to stop.
I don’t see another incoming transfer making the same impact as Mordecai will this season.
Runner(s) up: C.J. Williams, Bryson Green, Will Pauling, Jason Maitre
Wisconsin Football Freshman of the Year
Roseville running back Amare Snowden runs the ball against Eastpointe on Friday, October 9, 2020. Eastpointe
When I look at the incoming true freshmen, I see a lot of potential. What I don’t see is a clear path for one to make an immediate impact on this team. Especially on offense. There is one position that I feel is relatively open where a freshman could sneak in at some point in the season and make an impact.
I think Duclona is going to have a heck of a career with the Wisconsin football team. He even played in the All-America Bowl last winter. But right now, I’m putting my money on Amare Snowden having an earlier impact on the team. He is exactly the type of cornerback the coaching staff is aggressively targeting on the recruiting trail. He’s tall, extremely athletic, and versatile. He’ll have a chance to play all over the field, giving him some chances to get some early playing time.
Runner up: Jonas Duclona
Surprise of the Year
Apr 11, 2023; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin wide receiver Will Pauling (19) is shown during practice Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
The coaching staff added a ton of talent at the receiver position via the transfer portal. Some big names like C.J. Williams and Bryson Green headlined the group. But a sophomore receiver named Will Pauling transferred to Wisconsin from Cincinnati too. When he committed, he was just another depth piece that followed Luke Fickell to Madison.
But I think this little-known receiver could very well surprise a lot of Wisconsin football fans this fall when his name is called often.
This is significant because if you look back at Phil Longo‘s slot receivers, you’ll see they were a big part of the offense and put up some numbers. When he was at Ole Miss, A.J. Brown played a lot of snaps out of the slot. He had Dazz Newsome and Josh Downs at North Carolina. All three players were integral parts of the offense. Now, I’m not saying Pauling will be as good as those players. But there’s a reason Longo has him in that position.
Fans are enamored by the 4-star transfers, but Pauling is going to surprise a lot of people this year.
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Chez Mellusi (1) is taken off the field in a cart after suffering an injury during the second half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
The injury looked bad on replay, but the cart coming out for the former Clemson transfer, along with an air cast being placed on his leg, heightened fears for the worst. Ultimately, it was confirmed that Mellusi would miss the rest of the 2023 season with a fractured fibula.
Mellusi’s fracture marked his third significant injury during his tenure with the Badgers. He was named the starter in 2021 after transferring in from Clemson but ultimately suffered a season-ending ACL tear. He would return for his 2022 campaign but miss four games in the middle of the season due to a broken arm. Now, just four games into the season, Mellusi will miss the final eight games of the regular season.
Where Does Wisconsin Football Go From Here?
Without Mellusi, UW will look to its young talent to replicate his production, which could be challenging. The fifth-year senior logged 51 carries for 307 yards and four touchdowns through four games. He also tacked on three receptions for 12 yards.
Mellusi did earn a bulk of the carries through four games, with Braleon Allen dinged up. Luckily, Allen looks to be back to his usual self, so they won’t need to rely on a younger back to take the majority of the carries. Still, the depth is a big question mark for Wisconsin’s running back room now.
Behind Allen, the Badgers have Jackson Acker, Cade Yacamelli, Grover Bortolotti, and Nate White to fill out the rotation.
Acker, a redshirt sophomore, has sparingly seen some time on the field as the RB3. The Madison native has appeared in three games thus far, logging eight carries for 31 yards as well as one reception for three yards. As the RB3, he’ll be expected to step up in the wake of Mellusi’s injury when Allen needs a breather.
Converted safety Cade Yacamelli will be the likely candidate to fill Acker’s shoes in the RB3 role. He hasn’t appeared in any offensive snaps thus far, but he has seen some time on the field with special teams. Reports out of spring and fall camp indicated that Yacamelli had something in the tank as a running back, but it remains to be seen in live game reps.
It’s not the best situation for Wisconsin to be in, but UW does have plenty of contributors at tailback who could take some snaps if need be. Although this situation is a tough one all around, there could be a bright spot.
Chez Mellusi Could Return to the Wisconsin Football Program in 2024
Since Mellusi sustained his injury during the fourth game of the season, Badger fans shouldn’t rule out a sixth-year return from the standout tailback.
Although Mellusi didn’t see starter-level snaps during his time with Clemson, he never used a redshirt year. Plus, his sophomore season was impacted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, giving him another year of eligibility.
So, the choice for Mellusi comes down to focusing on his health and looking to sign with an NFL team as a UDFA or moving on to the next phase of his life outside of football. On the other hand, he could return for a sixth year to boost his draft stock. It certainly wouldn’t hurt Wisconsin, who is looking at Allen potentially heading to the NFL draft after the season and having an influx of young running backs coming into the fold, such as Darrion Dupree, Dilin Jones, and Gideon Ituka.
Although Mellusi’s injury is devastating for a number of reasons, there is a small bright spot in that we could see him don the cardinal and white one more time.
Wisconsin is now headed into the bye week starting 3-1 on the season. They’ll take on Rutgers on October 7th in Madison as both teams look to improve to 4-1.
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers defensive end James Thompson Jr. (90) celebrates after sacking Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Hudson Card (1) during the first half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
In this post-game recap, we dissect the performance of the Wisconsin Badgers by analyzing their snap counts and Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades for each position group — and include a few stats that help add context to the ole eye test.
By analyzing these metrics, we can gain a clearer insight into the individual contributions of each unit to the team’s overall performance. While you can’t take these figures as gospel, this allows us to identify strengths, key contributors, and areas where Wisconsin football excelled.
Let’s dive in.
Wisconsin Football Defensive Snap Counts & PFF Grades
Purdue Boilermakers wide receiver TJ Sheffield (8) is tackled by a group of Wisconsin Badgers players during the NCAA football game, Friday, Sept. 22, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Wisconsin Badgers won 38-17.
Defensive Line:
Rodas Johnson – Snap Count: [36] – PFF Grade: [47.4]
James Thomspon – Snap Count: [35] – PFF Grade: [64.6]
The most peculiar thing about Wisconsin football beating Purdue on Friday night was senior inside linebacker Maema Njongmeta essentially not playing at all. Full disclosure: I didn’t notice it until somebody pointed it out — but he appeared to see the field for one snap on fourth down late in the game. Luke Fickell said he was available — and I have a hard time believing something more isn’t going on here — but I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
The safety rotation was also somewhat bizarre to me for several reasons: Travian Blaylock sat in favor of a heavy dosage of Preston Zachman. I was also disappointed that Austin Brown couldn’t build off a strong performance against Georgia Southern.
I don’t need to get super in-depth on this one, but the defensive front seven was BAD. James Thompson Jr. is quickly becoming a stud on the defensive line — but other than him — there weren’t any individual performances to write home about. Nobody on the Wisconsin football defense registered more than two pressures on the night, and the Badgers finished with 16 total.
Lastly, a Wisconsin Badgers defense that’s struggled with giving up chunk plays all season (bottom third in the NCAA) also has a huge tackling issue — and was credited with 16 missed tackles as a team. This Wisconsin football defense isn’t talented enough to overcome these sloppy mistakes and is a clear point of emphasis to clean up during the bye week.
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell look on prior to the start of the game at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
On Friday night, Wisconsin Football laid down a 21-point victory in their Big Ten Conference opener against Purdue; now, the Badgers sit outside the top 25 in the AP polls with a 3-1 record (1-0 Big Ten) heading into a Week 5 bye before taking on Rutgers.
Wisconsin Football Falls Outside the Top 25 in Updated SP+ Rankings
For anyone unfamiliar with the ESPN SP+ model, it’s not your father’s associated press top 25 poll. It’s a forward-facing, Predictive model that serves as a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency.
With that out of the way, the Week 4 SP+ rankings currently have Wisconsin football as the No. 27 team in the country — down two spots from last week. According to the metric, the Badgers have an overall grade of 13.2, with the No. 39 offense, No. 18 defense, and No. 4 special teams unit.
Other notable Big Ten programs in the SP+ top 10 include Michigan (1), Ohio State (3), and Penn State (10).
When the Badgers come out of the bye week, Wisconsin football begins a tough stretch of games against Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State. Let’s hope the coaching staff can make necessary defensive adjustments, clean up the penalties on offense, and work in the younger running backs who must fill the No. 2 role after losing Chez Mellusi for the season.