Wisconsin Football Showing Elite ‘Flashes’ Isn’t Good Enough

Man, one thing I can say about this Wisconsin Football Team is…You can never count them out. The heart, the grit, the tenacity to make football plays and ELITE winning plays is there.

But it comes in spurts or “Flashes” for us. We must have more complete games at the level of football we “FLASH” to beat teams like Ohio State.

But boy, are those flashes we have something to build on moving forward—the final drive of the 1^st half and the initial drive of the 2^nd Half. That is the level of ELITE football we can come to expect on a much more sustained basis in the Luke Fickell/Phil Longo era. Unfortunately, things have to go near perfect for us to score, and for us to score TDs, things have to be flawless right now.

Locke doesn’t have the command to battle pressure on 31% of his Dropbacks yet (Data per PFF) he needs a significant amount of reps before he’s comfortable enough navigating those situations. He’s only had 117 Dropbacks; I’ll entertain further evaluations at the 200 DB mark, which will probably come in 2 weeks.

Turning to the defense. Wow, what a hell of a performance. They got worn down as Ohio State’s 11-minute Time-of-Possession (T.O.P) edge really took its toll on UW late. But the turnovers they were able to force early reduced the toll that edge showed, at least on the scoreboard (where it matters most). Strong Pressure, and timely run stops, never allowed Kyle McCord to settle in. Unluckily for us, Kyle McCord doesn’t have to be settled to chuck it up to Marvin Harrison. What a luxury.

In the Luke Fickell Era, the expectation will be to WIN these games. We’re not there yet. Injuries to our Starting QB, both of our Star RBs, and our most dependable X receiver. Certainly, don’t help the missing piece to the puzzle right now, which is an Explosive offense.

Play-Calling & EPA:

Wisconsin football really shied away from the PA/RPO game, I think in part because of the lack of ability to establish the ground game. Especially in the 2H without Braelon it made it super challenging to catch them over committing to the run. They simply didn’t have to, to keep us at or behind the chains.

You can see the ineffectiveness of the PA/RPO game in the EPA values:

By far and away, it was our least successful Play-Call Type. And on our most critical downs. 1^st & 2^nd Down. Those are the downs, because of our lack of explosiveness – we need to make our hay. Not doing so was truly the killer, for almost the entire 1^st Half, and Post our initial TD drive of the 2nd Half we really struggled to stay ahead of the chains. Putting Locke in extremely difficult positions.

Let’s dive into the Success Rates x Down & Play-Call…

Success Rate:

Looking at the Wisconsin football Success Rates, we were severely hampered when we decided to pass on 1^st Down, with a 17% Success Rate. That is bad and won’t win us many ballgames against this level of opponent.

Equally as bad was our entire 2^nd down Success Rate, with only 14% through Passing and 25% through Rushing. If you’ve been following along this season, you’ll know that poor Success Rates on 1^st and 2^nd Downs are NOT a recipe for success.

Wisconsin Football and 3^rd Downs:

Woof.

81% of our 3rd Downs were Medium (31%) and or Long (50%) > 4 Yards-To-Go.

Again, for added context, we were sitting at 77% the other way against Rutgers, Short/”Manageable” was 59% & 18% was Medium-to-Go situations. Plainly put, we have to be better on 1st and Second Down. There’s explainability to the 2H numbers, being down Braelon & Dike. But in the 1st Half we had everyone we expected to have, and whoo boy did we waste pretty much every opportunity we were given.

Thank the 3 Braelon Allen Final Drive Runs for the 43% Run Success Rate! Other than that, everything was at or below 25%. Brutal. But what we can obviously see is that our Running Game was far more successful. Yet, much like Iowa, we severely underutilized our Run USG on 2nd Down:

Well, that is one way to look at it. The other would be to look at the impact Braelon Allen’s mishaps had… and why we might have shied away from running the football.

EPA x Player | Half | Game:

Braelon added -5 EPA on Saturday Night, highlighted by his Fumble. But that isn’t the whole story. On all but four plays, Braelon lost EPA. Those were four of his last seven touches though, signaling a great trajectory going into the 2nd Half!

Alas, we lost him and strayed away from riding him and running more on 2nd Down, keeping us in more 3rd & Manageable and severely hindering our offensive flow!

Skyler Bell and C.J. Williams also had rough outings, being targeted on some crucial downs and not being able to deliver. Williams is bearing the brunt of how I’m charting things as a couple of those “targets” were on uncatchable balls. Apologies…C.J., you may be getting dogged here, but you were also the intended receiver.

To highlight somebody, obviously look no further than Will Pauling. The guy always seems to be making plays, but there was opportunity for him to have an even bigger night with some uncharacteristic mishaps. Obviously he made up for those and then some. But we probably need perfect outings from Pauling Game-in Game-out, unrealistic but necessary expectations.

The other highlight was Bryson Green; he came to ball Saturday Night. His two massive plays in the 2nd Half gave us life, putting us into or on the doorstep of OSU territory. Wisconsin football needs more consistent production out of Bryson, especially if we see Dike out for an extended period of time.

Wisconsin Football Defense:

There is not much to say about the Wisconsin Football Defense other than that it was a hell of a performance.

They just got worn down with OSU holding a +11 Minute Edge in Time of Possession (T.O.P). You can see it clearly in the data. While they allowed some big plays through the OSU Passing Game….check that…the Marvin Harrison Passing Game. Ohio State came in at ~7 YPA through the air in both Halves. Where the breakdowns came was on the ground, where UW went from allowing 3.6 YPA or about 0.25 YPA BELOW their Season Average.

But in the 2nd Half, we became worn down, and that YPA allowed ballooned to 5.2 YPA, a 1.6 YPA gain for OSU. It allowed them to get even more aggressive on 2nd Down and, ultimately, some huge plays that broke our back defensively.

The highlights were the Turnovers! Two INTs and a Strip Sack. If I told you we would be +2 in the Turnover Column, that would have been in many fans’ formula for beating OSU. But really, all Turnovers do is put you in an advantageous field position. All but one (Hallman’s) really “flipped” the field.

So, while they were huge from the standpoint of disallowing an Ohio State Scoring Drive, their impact was “muted” in translating to +14 Swings and were instead +7 TOs. The turnovers we’ve been getting have been good..great even, but not “game-breaking” excluding Ricardo Hallman’s!

Who is a certified…#DUDE!!

Final Thoughts:

Lost the Field Position Battle – EVEN with 3 Takeaways:

Our Average Starting Yards-To-Go was 72.8, while Ohio State’s was 62.4 Yards-To-Go!

That’s ~1.00 Expected Points of Field Position, EACH DRIVE. Over 12 Possessions each (Give or Take those late game Possessions), that’s 12 Points.

And we lost by 14. Makes you think…

Now, I’m in no way blaming our Special Teams Unit.

Sending Vakos out for a 54-Yard Attempt was a choice, a punt that probably saves a decent chunk of “AVG” Starting Field Position. If not for a boneheaded INT that overreliance on his leg jumpstarted a “should have been” TD Drive.

We got smarter and punted in + Territory. The defense then forced a punt albeit one that went to our 7 Yardline. Kudos to the OSU Punter. Although some severely challenged that move, it made all the sense in the world given the prior I just alluded to, the faith in the defense, and the lack of trust in the offense.

Okay. Maybe I’m adding that last one. But I believe that thought process would be warranted without Braelon/Dike.

If we sit back and analyze how this game differed from the expectations going in. I would say the Defense performed at the level of “They have to do THIS…for us to Win”.

The Offense, not so much. But is that more of an indication of where Ohio State is at than where Wisconsin is at? Ohio State’s defense was/is going to be fantastic all Season. That’s what it looks like versus an Offense that Flashes brilliance but is otherwise substandard.

Ohio State’s Offense, outside of Marvin Harrison Jr. is slightly above-average. That’s what our Defense looks like against that level of competition.

They can hang.

They just need much more help from their offense.

Which is why I’m so excited for this home stretch. The Defense can feast on some truly substandard offenses! And Braedyn Locke and this Offensive Group can find their footing and begin to put some Full-Game performances together. If that happens, we’ll find our way to Indianapolis on December 2nd.

And give our Opponent one HELL of a Matchup.

On Wisconsin!

Thank you for taking time out of your busy day to read our work at BadgerNotes.com. For more Wisconsin Badgers Athletics and Big Ten content, follow us on Twitter & Facebook. You can also subscribe to our YouTube Channel. You can also follow me on Twitter @GardYourFickell

Also, be sure to check out our shop, subscribe to our newsletter, and the BadgerNotes After Dark podcast, which is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and all other streaming platforms. Because of your support, we have become one of the fastest-growing independent media outlets focused on giving a voice to the fans!