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Wisconsin Football: Don’t Press Panic on Tanner Mordecai

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Tanner Mordecai, Starting Quarterback for Wisconsin Football
Apr 11, 2023; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin quarterback Tanner Mordecai (8) is shown during practice Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Madison, Wis. –  Okay, it’s been a few days post “The Launch” of Wisconsin Football under HC Luke Fickell. So we’ve all had more time to digest the performance or, rather, poor performance from Tanner Mordecai. It was probably a very sinking feeling for those who thought we were in the Post GM5 era of Badger Football. Don’t despair any further because I’m here to tell you that it’s all going to be okay!!!

I’ll leave you with a chart that explains my thinking, and then I’ll dive into it all:

 

Mordecai is a PROVEN FBS QB:

Mordecai Career Stats:

ATTs: 968 | COMP %: 66.7% | YDS: 7,791 | YPA: 8.05 | TD:INT Ratio: 3.30

Mordecai 2022 Stats:

ATTs: 444 | COMP %: 64.9% | YDS: 3,524 | YPA: 7.94 | TD:INT Ratio: 3.30

Mordecai 2021 Stats:

ATTs: 454 | COMP %: 67.8% | YDS: 3,628 | YPA: 8.00 | TD:INT Ratio: 3.25

How is this in comparison to the Most Productive & Successful UW QBs??

Let’s start with Yards per Attempt (YPA):

When looking at YPA, he’s right in line with the best years from Scott Tolzien and John Stocco! Falling a couple of YPA short of Russel Wilson, who TRULY gave us the most profound single season of production from a Wisconsin Football Quarterback we might ever see in our lifetimes. So don’t compare Mordecai to that! And while it might not seem like a big deal to be compared to Tolzin and Stocco, trust me, it is!! Especially on a YPA basis.

Although Saturday was rough, how does his MACRO TREND (2 FULL SEASONS) look from a TD:INT Ratio:

This is where Mordecai really separates himself from a QB Production standpoint that Wilson was able to achieve over and above other successful Wisconsin Football Quarterbacks (Stocco, Tolzien, Stave, Horibrook, Coan) in the Modern Era. Extrapolating the production of those other UW QBs to their Win % and we’re looking at an almost guaranteed 10 Win season next year with Mordecai! If you look at just their best season Win %….you’re looking at an 11-Win Average.

As I referenced in my post on Phil Longo, YPA is the most predictive of Scoring Margin, meaning it is also predictive of your expected Win %. As you can see, each of these QBs was hovering around the 80% Win Percentage margin. which would equate to 10.5 wins in a 13 Game Season.

Now that’s really all surface-level stuff!

How does Mordecai fit into Longo’s Reimagined Wisconsin Football Offensive Attack?

Well, first things first, we know Longo loves his PA/RPO:

Historically Longo has liked to use about a 42% PA/RPO Mix in his Pass Attempts.

However, this year with Drake May specifically, that dropped to about 27% of Pass ATTs using Play-Action or Run-Pass Option Concepts. When comparing the 2022 season’s Mordecai and Maye had near identical PA/RPO as % of Pass ATTs:

But Mordecai is comfortable playing in a less PA/RPO intense style and heavy PA/RPO Style.

Let’s take a look at his time at OU (Heavier PA/RPO Concepts) and SMU:

  1. We can see he’s played in two starkly different systems (One more RPO/PA focused and one less so)
  2. He actually performed BETTER in the system more highly concentrated with PA/RPO (Much smaller sample size)

Why does this matter? Well, Longo actually prefers to play in a higher PA/RPO “scheme” than he displayed with Drake Maye last year:

 

How do I KNOW Mordecai will fit well into a higher PA/RPO System?:

Let me throw two charts at you:

If you look at COMP % he’s almost dead even in Straight Drobbacks (SB) vs. PA/RPO Concepts, but where the separation begins to form is in the efficiencies of those Passes. Over his career, Mordecai averages about 9.29 Y/A on PA/RPO throws while only averaging 7.62 Y/A on Straight DBs. That is a 1.67 Y/A Difference or 22% INCREASE in YPA.

And wait…there’s more!!!

When you look at TDs & INTs by Passing Concept, it gets even better:

Tanner Mordecai is absolutely deadly in attacking the defense on PA/RPO concepts. With 31 TDs to only 3 INTs!! Which isn’t to say he’s bad in Straight DBs….he is most certainly not!! With a 2.37 TD:INT Ratio in Straight DB situations, that is still 2nd best among Wisconsin Football QBs in the “Modern” Era! But the more PA/RPO you give him, I think the better he will perform!!

Let’s look at the “Scheme Fit” by Depth of Target:

Vs. Drake Maye:

Vs. Phil Longo AVG QBs:

When looking at how Longo likes to Distribute Targets by Depth, it looks like Mordecai is a tailor-made fit for his system!! He even has a higher proclivity for those quick BLOS (Behind Line of Scrimmage) throws, which accounted for over 25% of Moredecai’s Targets!

When you look at Time To Throw (TTT) in Seconds:

Mordecai is right on par with Drake Maye. In fact, he’s actually slightly better in terms of decision-making on Deep Balls and those quick BLOS throws.

I’m not deep into the X’s & O’s to understand what exactly, from a scheme standpoint, would be impacting these #’s other than pure noise. But I’ll say I know enough to pontificate the mesh points & timing of routes for the RPO Action Longo runs & Mordecai was running at SMU are somewhat similar, which should ease and quicken his transition. The fact that it hasn’t been a major discussion point throughout Spring Ball, I think, slightly confirms that!!! You add in Summer Workouts, and everyone should be on the same page going into Fall Camp!

Tanner Mordecai’s Ball Security at “The Launch” was a Blip and nothing Wisconsin Football Fans need to fret about:

 

Lastly, let’s define Ball Security.

Pro Football Focus defines it for QBs as Turnover Worthy Plays (TWP) – a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.

Let’s take a peek at how Mordecai stacks up by Passing Depth vs. Drake Maye and Graham Mertz:

You can see that Mordecai really blows both of them out of the water!! With the exception of short throws, on those throws he is a little too loose. It’s very odd to see that pop as much as it does, but in totality, he takes care of the ball EXTREMELY well, and that matters for UW Teams.

Why does that matter?

Well, when UW crosses that 2:1 TD:INT Ratio…They’ve never won less than 8 games!!!

We can get into why (2017, 2016, 2014, 2009, 2015) are outliers within this. But more importantly, how in the heck did a RS Freshman Joel Stave, Danny Obrien & Curt Phillips Platoon at QB combine for a 2.2 TD:INT Ratio in 2012?!?!? Completely destroying up the nice little stat I wanted to use, saying UW has never won Less than 10 Games when they have a QB with a > 2.00 TD:INT Ratio.

But alas, we’ll have to trudge on without it!!!

But the point remains, Mordecai has proven he can be that guy, given the illustrious college career he’s already had. If he can maintain that level of play, and the MAJORITY of the data says to me he can. So sleep well and feel safe in maintaining your high expectations going into the 2023 Wisconsin Football Season!


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Breaking Down the Wisconsin Badgers Newest 2024 Defensive Line Commit

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Wisconsin Football defensive line commit Hank Weber

Wisconsin Football Lands Commitment From 2024 DL Hank Weber

Madison, Wis. — In need of a serious revamping of the defensive line, the Wisconsin football coaching staff knew these next couple of weekends would be huge for the future of the defense. 

The first domino of that DL revamp fell on Monday when the Badgers received a verbal commitment from 2024 three-star defensive lineman Hank Weber out of Brentwood, Tennesee, following an official visit to Madison this past weekend. 

According to 247Sports, Weber is the No. 99 DL in the country and the No. 37 player in Tennessee. The three-star recruit chose Wisconsin over offers from North Carolina, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Purdue, Virginia Tech, and several others. 

“Wisconsin had everything that I was looking for in a college and program,” Weber said. “The defense that coach Mike Tressel runs was appealing because of how aggressive it is. And I’ve been told that coach Fickell sometimes likes to lead the defensive line meetings. That was a huge deal for me.”

The 6-foot-4, 250-pound defensive prospect is Greg Scruggs’ first commit in the 2024 recruiting cycle. 

Scouting Report

Hank Weber is, by my evaluation, a solid but unspectacular prospect. That’s not to say I’m writing him off, though. 

Although his pad level and ability to get off the ball were underwhelming, his pursuit and technique after the snap stood out. There is an undeniable blend of length and power as a pass-rusher that you love to see, and he strikes me as the type of assignment-sound player that could develop into a reliable starter with some time to fill out his frame. 

One thing I love about Weber is that he also plays offensive line, so he’s got a tenacity and motor about him that is a must-have in a defensive line prospect. 

Overall, I think Weber was a solid get, and for a re-tooling defensive line, he’s a solid start to what should be a large class of recruits at the position. I’ll like this commit even better if he’s paired with someone that has more pass-rushing upside.

The Impact of Hank Weber Joining the Wisconsin Football Program 

Vernon Woodward is commitment No. 10 for the Wisconsin football program in the 2024 recruiting cycle, joining Mabrey Mettauer, Grant Stec, Robert Booker, Derek Jensen, Thomas Heiberger, Landon Gauthier, Kyan Berry-Johnson, Kahmir Prescott, and Vernon Woodward.

With his addition, UW now has the No. 21 recruiting class in the country, per 247Sports.


Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Dillon Graff on Twitter @DillonGraff.

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Wisconsin Football Adds Australian Punter, New 2024 Commit, More

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Wisconsin Badgers Football Stadium
Sep 3, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; General view of Camp Randall Stadium prior to the game between the Illinois State Redbirds and Wisconsin Badgers. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a busy couple of days for the Wisconsin football program, ladies and gents, but fear not because BadgerNotes can help get you back up to speed with a roundup of some important Badgers news you may have missed.

Wisconsin Badgers Address Their Special Teams Need

Exiting spring practice, Wisconsin football head coach Luke Fickell voiced his concern about the Badgers’ punting situation.

“I’m a little bit concerned we’ve got to figure some things out probably in the punting situation,” Fickell said after the final spring practice. “I know it’s a tougher time, but we don’t get outside nearly as much to see those guys have an opportunity to punt the ball and for us to return it as well.”

Thankfully, that issue was addressed with Wisconsin landing a commitment from Atticus Bertrams, a native of Melbourne, Australia, who will be on scholarship in 2023.

Bertrams had previously committed to USC in 2021 but didn’t enroll. Instead, he spent his time training at Prokick, an academy in Australia that has produced six Ray Guy Award-winning punters.

He immediately slots in as Wisconsin’s top punter ahead of Jack Van Dyke and Gavin Meyers, who left something to be desired during spring practice. Bertrams has some big shoes to fill following the departure of Andy Vujnovich.

Wisconsin Football Lands Commitment From 3-Star Florida CB 

Following an official visit to Madison, the Wisconsin football coaching staff added their first cornerback prospect of the 2024 cycle in three-star cornerback Vernon Woodward, out of Winter Park, Florida.

According to the industry-generated composite rankings, he is the No. 74 cornerback in the 2024 recruiting class and the No. 128 player in Florida.

Woodward chose UW over scholarship offers from Ole Miss, Illinois, Cincinnati, Missouri, Purdue, UCF, Virginia, West Virginia, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and several others.

As a junior, the 6-foot-2 cornerback registered 57 tackles, three forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. But perhaps the most telling stat from Woodward’s junior season is that he was targeted only twice all year, which speaks volumes about his ability to blanket WRs at that level. 

You can watch his HUDL film here.

Vernon Woodward is commitment No. 9 for the Wisconsin football program in the 2024 recruiting cycle, joining Mabrey Mettauer, Grant Stec, Robert Booker, Derek Jensen, Thomas Heiberger, Landon Gauthier, Kyan Berry-Johnson, and Kahmir Prescott. 

Other Wisconsin Football News

According to a report from Bruce Feldman of The Athletic, the Wisconsin football team is adding a senior defensive analyst to the coaching staff. 

UW is adding Rhode Island defensive coordinator and defensive backs coach Jack Cooper as a senior defensive analyst next season after serving in his previous role since 2020. He also served as a quality control coach for Nebraska for two seasons. 

Coach Cooper helped lead Rhode Island to a top-50 defensive unit in 2021 and a 7-4 record overall, their highest win total in two decades. 

This addition is precisely the kind of coaching hire top-tier programs are making nowadays because they don’t count against the allowed amount of paid assistants. The beauty in adding an experienced coach like Jack Cooper is that you have an internal candidate you’re comfortable with should someone on your staff move on. 


Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Dillon Graff on Twitter @DillonGraff.

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Wisconsin Football Kicks off Official Visit Weekend With a Bang

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Wisconsin Badgers football
Oct 25, 2014; Madison, WI, USA; The Wisconsin logo at midfield of Camp Randall Stadium following the game between the Maryland Terrapins and Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin won 52-7. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Madison, Wis. — The Wisconsin football program kicked off its massive June 2 recruiting weekend with a bang. Following an official visit, the Badgers coaching staff added their first cornerback prospect of the 2024 cycle in three-star cornerback Vernon Woodward, out of Winter Park, Florida.

According to the industry-generated composite rankings, he is the No. 74 cornerback in the 2024 recruiting class and the No. 128 player in Florida.

For Woodward, this was his first trip to Madison, and he chose UW over scholarship offers from Ole Miss, Illinois, Cincinnati, Missouri, Purdue, UCF, Virginia, West Virginia, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and several others.

The 6-foot-2, 180-pound cornerback is Paul Haynes first commit at the position and got the recruiting assist on Woodward from fellow Florida natives Ricardo Hallman and Jonas Duclona, who hosted him on his visit.

The Skinny 

In Vernon Woodward, the Wisconsin football program is getting a big corner with measurables this coaching staff covets above all else. His frame and skillset align well with the type of athlete that Luke Fickell and his staff have successfully developed. 

As a junior, he registered 57 tackles, three forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. But perhaps the most telling stat from Woodward’s junior season is that he was targeted only twice all year, which speaks volumes about his ability to blanket WRs at that level. 

Woodward’s length is impressive; he has quick feet, dissects plays well, and isn’t afraid to come downhill and tackle. That’s an area that excites me about his game. Getting off blocks and being an asset in the run game should allow him to be a playmaker on UW’s defense. 

The Impact of Vernon Woodward Joining the Wisconsin Football Program 

Vernon Woodward is commitment No. 9 for the Wisconsin football program in the 2024 recruiting cycle, joining Mabrey Mettauer, Grant Stec, Robert Booker, Derek Jensen, Thomas Heiberger, Landon Gauthier, Kyan Berry-Johnson, and Kahmir Prescott. 

With his addition, UW now has the No. 22 recruiting class in the country, per 247Sports.


Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Dillon Graff on Twitter @DillonGraff.

Follow this link and use promo code: BADGERNOTES for 25% off your next True Classic order.

Join the Badger Notes watch party and stream Wisconsin Badgers games by following this link.

*Subscribe to Locked on Badgers on Youtube and wherever you find podcasts, the only daily Wisconsin Badgers podcast on the internet.

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