Wisconsin Basketball: On Brink of Disaster vs. Robert Morris?

Wisconsin basketball needs a standout performance against the Robert Morris Colonials on Friday night. Not because RMU is an impressive program that the Wisconsin Badgers should strive to be better than. But instead, because Robert Morris is precisely the opposite of that. A lackluster performance against a Horizon League opponent following a dismal performance at Providence would cast an early shadow over a long season.

Wisconsin Basketball Should Easily Defeat Robert Morris

Predictive metrics project the Badgers to win on Friday by a comfortable margin. KenPom and BartTorvik both predict a UW victory by roughly 19 points. KenPom has Wisconsin’s odds of winning at 97%, with BartTorvik slightly more bearish on the Wisconsin Badgers at 96%.

Nov 6, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard AJ Storr (2) scores under coverage by Arkansas State Red Wolves forward LaQuill Hardnett (1) during the second half at the Kohl Center. Mandatory Credit: Kayla Wolf-USA TODAY Sports

To open its season, Wisconsin left no doubt against an Arkansas State team that projects to be much better than Robert Morris. Arkansas State had its fair amount of roster turnover amid a coaching transition in the offseason. Still, longtime Colonials head coach Andrew Toole is undoubtedly worse off in the personnel departure department. RMU lost three of its four top scorers from last season, including two all-conference selections, through a combination of exhausted eligibility and the transfer portal.

As a self-proclaimed fan of mid-major (particularly Horizon League) basketball, I feel confident giving my assessment that this Colonials team is nothing special. That does not mean, however, that Wisconsin basketball cannot lose this game.

Wisconsin Badgers Play with Fire Against Inferior Opponents

For whatever reason, Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard’s teams have struggled against lesser competition with some regularity. Lehigh entered the Kohl Center last season and gave the Wisconsin Badgers quite a push. The Mountain Hawks led UW as late as 7:29 into the second half despite having one of the worst offenses in college basketball last season. A closer brush with disaster came against (Robert Morris’s Horizon League conference-mate) UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix won just three games all season but were in a two-possession game in Madison with less than five minutes remaining.

Nov 15, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Max Klesmit (right) looks to the basket under coverage by Wisconsin Badgers forward Steven Crowl (22) during the second half at the Kohl Center. Mandatory Credit: Kayla Wolf-USA TODAY Sports

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This was not unique to a uniquely disappointing Wisconsin basketball team either. Even with Johnny Davis on the team, Wisconsin barely scraped out a four-point win over Illinois State two seasons ago. In a game Davis sat out with an illness in the same season, UW escaped with a three-point victory over a Nicholls State team that finished the season ranked outside of the top 200 at KenPom.

It is overwhelmingly probable that if Wisconsin keeps playing with its food in these buy-games, it will eventually lose one. If they want to avoid a loss that could seriously hamper their resume for the NCAA Tournament, the Wisconsin Badgers need to kick this bad habit. Especially following Gard’s complaints about the lack of effort from some of his best players.

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