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Wisconsin Football vs. Purdue: FPI Predictions & Gambling Odds

Here’s a look at how ESPN’s FPI & Vegas odds makers see Wisconsin’s matchup vs. Purdue shaking out.



Wisconsin football; Badgers nickel cornerbacks Jason Maitre and Owen Arnett
Sep 16, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers cornerback Jason Maitre (23) celebrates with safety Owen Arnett (18) following an interception during the second quarter against the Georgia Southern Eagles at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Wisconsin Badgers football (2-1, 0-0 B1G) parlayed a strong second-half performance into a 35-14 victory over the Georgia Southern Eagles on Saturday afternoon at Camp Randall Stadium.

Now, Luke Fickell and the Badgers are gearing up for their first Big Ten conference game of the season, where they’ll travel to West Lafayette for some Friday Night Lights action against the Purdue Boilermakers (1-2).

Before that happens, let’s look at the betting lines for the upcoming contest and how ESPN’s FPI sees the game shaking out.

Wisconsin Football vs. Purdue Odds and Betting Lines

  • Moneyline (ML): Purdue +195 OR Wisconsin football -238
  • Against the spread: Purdue +6 (-110) OR Wisconsin -6 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 54 (O: -110 U: -110)

Last week, Wisconsin football covered for the first time all season, but most people walked away not feeling any better about this Badgers team.

That most likely has to do with UW’s remarkably slow first-half starts. Thus far, the Badgers have been outscored in the first half by their opponents 41-30 despite playing less talented programs.

Conversely, Wisconsin is outscoring opponents 65-21 in the second half, which proves the Badgers staff has done an excellent job of making halftime adjustments.

Do I think UW will win this game? Yes. Given what we’ve seen, do I feel good about betting on them in any capacity? No. But I’m a gambling man, so I’ll take Wisconsin football to cover and hit the over.

How ESPN’s FPI Sees the Wisconsin Badgers Week 4 Matchup Shaking Out

Ahead of this week’s matchup, ESPN’s FPI model gives Wisconsin football a 63.2% chance of winning its home matchup vs. Purdue.

This projection seems fair to me. Purdue has been a passing team for years, which makes the Boilermakers a threat against a struggling Badgers secondary. However, their defense isn’t anything to write home about (allowing 409.3 YPG), so Wisconsin should, in theory, have no issues moving the ball.

As far as Big Ten opponents go, Purdue is on the weaker end, considering they’ve already lost to Fresno State and Syracuse. So, if Wisconsin football can’t win this by more than one score, we could be in for a rollercoaster season during conference play.

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Dillon Graff is a Substack Newsletter Best Selling Author and the Owner of, your go-to source for in-depth coverage of the Wisconsin Badgers. His work has been featured in top media publications like USA Today, Bleacher Report, Verbal Commits, B5Q, Saturday Blitz, and Fansided.