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ESPN’s FPI Projection & Betting Odds for Wisconsin Football vs. Buffalo

Here’s a look at how ESPN’s power football index sees the home opener shaking out.

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Wisconsin Badgers Football helmet
Mandatory Credit: Aaron Frey-AMF Photos. Follow @amfphotos2020 on Instagram to see more.

Luke Fickell and the Wisconsin football program enter the highly anticipated 2023 home opener at Camp Randall Stadium against the Buffalo Bulls with a lot to prove. 

This winter, the Badgers added several major pieces to their roster via the transfer portal. Wisconsin also revamped the entire coaching staff during the offseason and have their eyes on re-entering the discussion as one of college football’s premier programs. 

Before the season kicks off, let’s look at the betting lines for the upcoming contest and how ESPN’s FPI sees the game shaking out. 

Wisconsin Football vs. Buffalo Odds and Betting Lines

  • Moneyline (ML): Buffalo +1500 OR Wisconsin football -3600 
  • Against the spread: Buffalo +27.5 (-110) OR Wisconsin -27.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 U: -110)

It should come as no surprise that Wisconsin enters week one as the heavy betting favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. 

While I think that the Badgers football team will roll Buffalo and have a chance to reach the over, given the tempo I expect them to play at — I’m still not touching these lines with a ten-foot pole until I’ve seen them play with my own two eyes. 

How ESPN’s Matchup Predictor Sees the Badgers Game Shaking Out

Ahead of this Saturday’s matchup, ESPN’s FPI model gives Wisconsin football a 91% chance of winning the first game of the Luke Fickell era against Buffalo at Camp Randall. 

This projection seems about right- if not too low for my taste. I’d put it at closer to a 96% chance Wisconsin walks away with the W.

Yes, the Badgers have a new coaching staff, are implementing fresh offensive/defensive systems, and still need to play a real game together. But I just don’t see a scenario where UW loses this game. 

I anticipate the defense shredding Buffalo and Badgers football fans going home happy and optimistic about the program’s new direction. 

Damn, it feels good to be talking about Wisconsin football again.

3 Fearless Predictions for Wisconsin Football During the Luke Fickell Era



Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Dillon Graff on Twitter @DillonGraff.

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Join the Badger Notes watch party and stream Wisconsin Badgers games by following this link.

*Subscribe to BadgerNotes After Dark on Youtube and wherever you find podcasts, the official Wisconsin Badgers podcast of the Big Banter Sports Network.

Football

Wisconsin Badgers Football: What Are We DOIN Here?!

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Wisconsin Badgers Football head coach Luke Fickell vs. Purdue
Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell talks to an official during the NCAA football game against the Purdue Boilermakers, Friday, Sept. 22, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Wisconsin Badgers won 38-17.

The Wisconsin Badgers football team has been betting favorites in all four games this season, and after suffering a week two loss at Wazzou, the boys have bounced back nicely with back-to-back wins.

Last week on the BadgerNotes After Dark Pod with Coop and Dillon (shameless plug, like, follow, subscribe, comment), I told the fellas that I am just too angry while watching the games when it comes to the Badgers and how they’re playing. I wanted to go into this Purdue game level-headed, as a new man with a positive attitude toward the team.

I’ve found new targets to shift my annoyed, pent-up anger towards.

Wisconsin Football What Are We Doin Here Moment of the Week

As I sat watching the Wisconsin Badgers football team win both games by multiple scores while being incredibly unsettled every time the defense was on the field.

I couldn’t help but notice the announcers damn near cheering for the other team. I get that to some extent when a small dog like Georgia Southern hangs around with a Power Five team. But the entire second half of the Purdue game, we had to listen to Tim Brando and Spencer Tillman be overly excited at every chunk play Purdue had.

Brando was lobbying for a Touchdown at the end of the game for Purdue and was comfortable being completely wrong about it. You would have thought the Pennsylvania School of The Blind was beating up on IMG Academy the way these guys were giddy anytime Purdue moved the sticks.

I’m a sucker for a Cinderella Story, a junkie for a +500 bet, and an absolute slut for an upset.

But, fellas, Wisconsin football & Purdue are BIG Ten opponents in a week-four bout. The spread was less than a touchdown at kickoff. What are we DOIN here?!

The Badgers didn’t play as well in the second half because they played damn near perfect in the first half. So, I’m sure I am overreacting about this. But I’m playing into Wisconsin football vs. The World right now, and nobody is safe from these Twitter fingers.

Brando – Tillman, looking at you boys. Respectfully, What are we DOIN here!?

Wisconsin Football Team Suffers Devastating Blow on Injury Front



Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Jason Long on Twitter @JasonC_Long

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Join the Badger Notes watch party and stream Wisconsin Badgers games by following this link.

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Wisconsin Football Team Suffers Devastating Blow on Injury Front

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Wisconsin football; Badgers running back Chez Mellusi suffers devastating injury
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Chez Mellusi (1) is taken off the field in a cart after suffering an injury during the second half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

The Wisconsin football program has been hit hard by a gut-wrenching twist of fate, with Badgers sixth-year running back Chez Mellusi suffering what appears to be a season-ending injury.

The news has left both the team and fans in shock and has raised questions about the team’s running back depth moving forward.

Mellusi, who returned for a sixth season to make a significant impact on the team, had been a crucial part of the Badgers’ offense. His experience and versatility provided a valuable dimension to the team’s running game, making him a key asset for Head Coach Luke Fickell.

In all likelihood, Mellusi will finish the season with 40 carries for 268 yards (6.7 YPC) and four touchdowns. The 5-foot-11, 212-pound tailback also caught two passes for 14 yards.

Wisconsin Football Faces Uncertain Future Without Chez Mellusi

The injury occurred during the fourth quarter of the game, leaving Chez Mellusi visibly shaken, and he was carted off the field, surrounded by his teammates. It was a stark reminder of the physical toll that football can take on even the most dedicated and talented athletes.

While the full extent of Mellusi’s injury hasn’t been disclosed, the ole eye test suggests it could be a season-ending setback. Wisconsin football now has a significant void to fill in their running back rotation.

One of the critical challenges facing Luke Fickell and his coaching staff is finding a suitable replacement for Mellusi. His unique skill set and experience will not be easily replicated, and the team will be forced to rely on converted fullback Jackson Acker and Cade Yacamelli to fill the No. 2 role behind Braelon Allen.

The loss of Mellusi is not just a blow to the team’s on-field performance but also a heartbreak for a player who had worked tirelessly to contribute to the Badgers’ success.

As the Wisconsin football team navigates this challenging period, the focus now shifts to rallying together and finding a way to continue their season on a positive note. The road ahead is undoubtedly more arduous without Mellusi, but adversity has a way of uniting a team and bringing out their best.



Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Dillon Graff on Twitter @DillonGraff.

Follow this link and use promo code: BADGERNOTES for 25% off your next True Classic order.

Join the Badger Notes watch party and stream Wisconsin Badgers games by following this link.

*Subscribe to BadgerNotes After Dark on Youtube and wherever you find podcasts, the official Wisconsin Badgers podcast of the Big Banter Sports Network.

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Football

Wisconsin Football Defeats Purdue: Here’s What Stood Out

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Wisconsin football; Badgers QB Tanner Mordecai and Bryson Green
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Tanner Mordecai (8) celebrates with Wisconsin Badgers wide receiver Bryson Green (9) after running for a touchdown during the first half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

In their Big Ten opener at Ross-Ade Stadium, Luke Fickell and the Wisconsin football program (3-1, 1-0 B1G) secured a 38-17 victory over Purdue (1-3, 0-1 B1G), extending the Badgers winning streak against the Boilermakers to an unprecedented 17 consecutive games.

Here are a few things that stood out from the Wisconsin Badgers week four victory over Ryan Walters and the Purdue Boilermakers. 

Wisconsin Football Utilized Tanner Mordecai as a Dual-Threat QB on Friday Night

Wisconsin football needed to get off to a fast start after three consecutive subpar first-half performances, and the Badgers offense answered by jumping out to a 14-0 start behind the legs of quarterback Tanner Mordecai

He finished the game with 14 carries, amassing 58 yards and scoring twice on the ground while also completing 63% of his passes for 174 yards & one interception.

While Mordecai’s performance wasn’t flawless, his ability to create plays with his legs did help create running opportunities for Braelon Allen. As a result, Allen carried the ball 16 times, racking up 116 yards and scoring two touchdowns.

This new dynamic clearly caught Purdue off guard and played a crucial role in providing the much-needed quick start for the Wisconsin football offense.

Wisconsin Football Just Became Real Thin at Running Back

Chez Mellusi‘s return for a sixth season has had a significant impact on the Badger offense.

Thriving in Phil Longo’s system, Mellusi entered the game as Wisconsin’s leading rusher. Unfortunately, he sustained what appeared to be a significant injury in the fourth quarter, likely marking the end of his collegiate career.

With Mellusi out of the picture, Wisconsin football will now turn to converted fullback Jackson Acker and presumably Cade Yacamelli to fill the No. 2 role behind Braelon Allen.  

Due to Allen’s injury history, the new coaching staff intended to restrict his number of carries to safeguard his health. Now, Luke Fickell must determine whether they are still willing to adhere to this plan without a 1B tailback at his disposal.

This is a difficult situation for Wisconsin football in general, but it’s especially tough for Mellusi personally. I hope he makes a full recovery because it’s always disheartening to witness a player’s college career conclude in such a manner.

Prayers up. 

Other Wisconsin Badgers Musings 

Jack Nelson had another brutal game with at least three penalties. I’m not sure what’s going on right now — but I’m shocked at how poor and undisciplined the Stoughton native has been through four games. 

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Wisconsin football found themselves a kicker. Nathaniel Vakos is now 7-for-7 on the season, and it looks like he’s the best placekicking option the Badgers have had since Rafael Gaglianone.

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CJ Williams put together the best game of his Badgers career — which was great to see — finishing with five catches for 56 yards. It was an encouraging sign for the passing attack moving forward. 

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The University of Wisconsin football program might not have a terrific defensive line this year — but James Thompson Jr. is most definitely a dude for the Badgers. He finished with six tackles, 2.0 TFLs, a sack, plus a pass-breakup. 

Wisconsin Football Team Suffers Devastating Blow on Injury Front



Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Dillon Graff on Twitter @DillonGraff.

Follow this link and use promo code: BADGERNOTES for 25% off your next True Classic order.

Join the Badger Notes watch party and stream Wisconsin Badgers games by following this link.

*Subscribe to BadgerNotes After Dark on Youtube and wherever you find podcasts, the official Wisconsin Badgers podcast of the Big Banter Sports Network.

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