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ESPN’s FPI Projection & Betting Odds for Wisconsin Football vs. Buffalo

Here’s a look at how ESPN’s power football index sees the home opener shaking out.



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Mandatory Credit: Aaron Frey-AMF Photos. Follow @amfphotos2020 on Instagram to see more.

Luke Fickell and the Wisconsin football program enter the highly anticipated 2023 home opener at Camp Randall Stadium against the Buffalo Bulls with a lot to prove. 

This winter, the Badgers added several major pieces to their roster via the transfer portal. Wisconsin also revamped the entire coaching staff during the offseason and have their eyes on re-entering the discussion as one of college football’s premier programs. 

Before the season kicks off, let’s look at the betting lines for the upcoming contest and how ESPN’s FPI sees the game shaking out. 

Wisconsin Football vs. Buffalo Odds and Betting Lines

  • Moneyline (ML): Buffalo +1500 OR Wisconsin football -3600 
  • Against the spread: Buffalo +27.5 (-110) OR Wisconsin -27.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 U: -110)

It should come as no surprise that Wisconsin enters week one as the heavy betting favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. 

While I think that the Badgers football team will roll Buffalo and have a chance to reach the over, given the tempo I expect them to play at — I’m still not touching these lines with a ten-foot pole until I’ve seen them play with my own two eyes. 

How ESPN’s Matchup Predictor Sees the Badgers Game Shaking Out

Ahead of this Saturday’s matchup, ESPN’s FPI model gives Wisconsin football a 91% chance of winning the first game of the Luke Fickell era against Buffalo at Camp Randall. 

This projection seems about right- if not too low for my taste. I’d put it at closer to a 96% chance Wisconsin walks away with the W.

Yes, the Badgers have a new coaching staff, are implementing fresh offensive/defensive systems, and still need to play a real game together. But I just don’t see a scenario where UW loses this game. 

I anticipate the defense shredding Buffalo and Badgers football fans going home happy and optimistic about the program’s new direction. 

Damn, it feels good to be talking about Wisconsin football again.

3 Fearless Predictions for Wisconsin Football During the Luke Fickell Era

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Dillon Graff is a Substack Newsletter Best Selling Author and the Owner of, your go-to source for in-depth coverage of the Wisconsin Badgers. His work has been featured in top media publications like USA Today, Bleacher Report, Verbal Commits, B5Q, Saturday Blitz, and Fansided.