Apr 11, 2023; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Phil Longo is shown during practice Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
We’re back, and I’m so excited to bring you the TOP 10 Wisconsin Football Stats you need to know for the 2023 Season!
Well, it will be more like the Top 10 Analytics Themes you need to concern yourself with for the 2023 Season. Mostly because just giving you ONE STAT just isn’t enough. I want to flex those statistical muscles a bit more for you.
Theme #10: Phil Longo’s Red Zone Offense
Phil Longo‘s North Carolina Red Zone Efficiency Rank in 2022 was 106 in the FBS. This is about 24 slots behind the 2022 Wisconsin Football Offense. So there are legitimate concerns around Longo’s Scheme translating to Red Zone Scoring heading into the 2023 Season.
How will Wisconsin Football perform in the Red Zone with Longo:
First, we need to analyze where Longo diverged from the Top 3 Red Zone (RZ) Offenses (Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee) in 2022. I’ll start by looking specifically at Play Types, particularly the % of plays that used Motion/Play-Action/Run-Pass Options (RPO)s and what % of plays in the Red Zone DIDN’T.
Top 3 Offenses used 2X MORE Motion (Pre-Snap)
Top 3 Offenses also used ~25% Less Play-Action/RPO
This is very interesting to me; it seems, at least to this X’s & O’s novice. The Top Offenses in the RZ are trying to disrupt the Defense and get them out of position Pre-Snap with Motion. Whereas Longo’s scheme looks to be trying to disrupt the Defense with Post-Snap deception. With a healthy dose of Play-Action/RPO.
This might be where the problem lies for Longo. There just isn’t enough TIME or SPACE for longer developing plays (RPOs/Play-Action Passes) to bear fruit in the Red Zone.
If you could take one thing away from this post, just look at the YPA on Passes for Longo using Motion (Pink Column) with 6 or less in the box. On those 5 Plays, the average gain was 9 Yards/ATT. That needs to be exploited much more going forward for Longo in the Red Zone. Longo also sees outsized returns when using motion on run plays when there are 7 or more defenders in the box.
Let’s Dive Deeper into Longo’s Red Zone Play-Calls:
One thing I’ve been seeing around Twitter is analysis around efficiency with Play-Type based on how many defenders are in the box. So it begs the question, do Phil Longo‘s Play-Calls make sense based on these factors?
It looks like Longo is able to spread the field very well. About ~60% of Plays had 6 or fewer defenders in the Box. What concerns me here is the rate at which he’s doing two things.
Passing with 6 or less defenders in the box
Running with 7 or more defenders in the box.
I’d love to see a lot more running with 6 or less in the box. As well as more passing with 7 or more in the box!
Let’s go a level deeper…
A few things here are interesting to me.
Run’s with 7 or more in the box, a majority are straight runs.
Passes with 6 or less in the box a majority were Straight Dropbacks to pass.
Run’s vs. 6 or less in the box, high amount of RPO gives, so the QB is making good reads.
These are just intuitively wrong; frankly, it’s shown based on the results. North Carolina had the 5th most trips to the Red Zone in 2022 with 70. However, they converted scores only 55 times which was 106th best (Worst) in CFB. The Strategy in between the 20s is fantastic but is a struggle once inside the Red Zone. Longo will have to tighten up in 2023 if this Wisconsin Football team wants to maintain these newfound Championship expectations.
Easy Fix for Longo & Wisconsin Football:
Honestly, to get to that ELITE Red Zone efficiency will be pretty simple fixes:
Run More on “Light” Boxes (6 men or less)
Pass more on “Heavy” Boxes (7 men or More)
USE MORE MOTION to create disruption for the defense and identify (“Light” or “Heavy”) boxes
If Longo/Mordecai can execute on these three things, they’ll have much more success in the Red Zone than Longo’s North Carolina team did last year. And as I said, they are seemingly easy fixes, which gives me a TON of confidence they’ll be made. It would be absolute madness if we didn’t see these simple changes made.
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Chez Mellusi (1) is taken off the field in a cart after suffering an injury during the second half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
The injury looked bad on replay, but the cart coming out for the former Clemson transfer, along with an air cast being placed on his leg, heightened fears for the worst. Ultimately, it was confirmed that Mellusi would miss the rest of the 2023 season with a fractured fibula.
Mellusi’s fracture marked his third significant injury during his tenure with the Badgers. He was named the starter in 2021 after transferring in from Clemson but ultimately suffered a season-ending ACL tear. He would return for his 2022 campaign but miss four games in the middle of the season due to a broken arm. Now, just four games into the season, Mellusi will miss the final eight games of the regular season.
Where Does Wisconsin Football Go From Here?
Without Mellusi, UW will look to its young talent to replicate his production, which could be challenging. The fifth-year senior logged 51 carries for 307 yards and four touchdowns through four games. He also tacked on three receptions for 12 yards.
Mellusi did earn a bulk of the carries through four games, with Braleon Allen dinged up. Luckily, Allen looks to be back to his usual self, so they won’t need to rely on a younger back to take the majority of the carries. Still, the depth is a big question mark for Wisconsin’s running back room now.
Behind Allen, the Badgers have Jackson Acker, Cade Yacamelli, Grover Bortolotti, and Nate White to fill out the rotation.
Acker, a redshirt sophomore, has sparingly seen some time on the field as the RB3. The Madison native has appeared in three games thus far, logging eight carries for 31 yards as well as one reception for three yards. As the RB3, he’ll be expected to step up in the wake of Mellusi’s injury when Allen needs a breather.
Converted safety Cade Yacamelli will be the likely candidate to fill Acker’s shoes in the RB3 role. He hasn’t appeared in any offensive snaps thus far, but he has seen some time on the field with special teams. Reports out of spring and fall camp indicated that Yacamelli had something in the tank as a running back, but it remains to be seen in live game reps.
It’s not the best situation for Wisconsin to be in, but UW does have plenty of contributors at tailback who could take some snaps if need be. Although this situation is a tough one all around, there could be a bright spot.
Chez Mellusi Could Return to the Wisconsin Football Program in 2024
Since Mellusi sustained his injury during the fourth game of the season, Badger fans shouldn’t rule out a sixth-year return from the standout tailback.
Although Mellusi didn’t see starter-level snaps during his time with Clemson, he never used a redshirt year. Plus, his sophomore season was impacted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, giving him another year of eligibility.
So, the choice for Mellusi comes down to focusing on his health and looking to sign with an NFL team as a UDFA or moving on to the next phase of his life outside of football. On the other hand, he could return for a sixth year to boost his draft stock. It certainly wouldn’t hurt Wisconsin, who is looking at Allen potentially heading to the NFL draft after the season and having an influx of young running backs coming into the fold, such as Darrion Dupree, Dilin Jones, and Gideon Ituka.
Although Mellusi’s injury is devastating for a number of reasons, there is a small bright spot in that we could see him don the cardinal and white one more time.
Wisconsin is now headed into the bye week starting 3-1 on the season. They’ll take on Rutgers on October 7th in Madison as both teams look to improve to 4-1.
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers defensive end James Thompson Jr. (90) celebrates after sacking Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Hudson Card (1) during the first half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
In this post-game recap, we dissect the performance of the Wisconsin Badgers by analyzing their snap counts and Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades for each position group — and include a few stats that help add context to the ole eye test.
By analyzing these metrics, we can gain a clearer insight into the individual contributions of each unit to the team’s overall performance. While you can’t take these figures as gospel, this allows us to identify strengths, key contributors, and areas where Wisconsin football excelled.
Let’s dive in.
Wisconsin Football Defensive Snap Counts & PFF Grades
Purdue Boilermakers wide receiver TJ Sheffield (8) is tackled by a group of Wisconsin Badgers players during the NCAA football game, Friday, Sept. 22, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Wisconsin Badgers won 38-17.
Defensive Line:
Rodas Johnson – Snap Count: [36] – PFF Grade: [47.4]
James Thomspon – Snap Count: [35] – PFF Grade: [64.6]
The most peculiar thing about Wisconsin football beating Purdue on Friday night was senior inside linebacker Maema Njongmeta essentially not playing at all. Full disclosure: I didn’t notice it until somebody pointed it out — but he appeared to see the field for one snap on fourth down late in the game. Luke Fickell said he was available — and I have a hard time believing something more isn’t going on here — but I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
The safety rotation was also somewhat bizarre to me for several reasons: Travian Blaylock sat in favor of a heavy dosage of Preston Zachman. I was also disappointed that Austin Brown couldn’t build off a strong performance against Georgia Southern.
I don’t need to get super in-depth on this one, but the defensive front seven was BAD. James Thompson Jr. is quickly becoming a stud on the defensive line — but other than him — there weren’t any individual performances to write home about. Nobody on the Wisconsin football defense registered more than two pressures on the night, and the Badgers finished with 16 total.
Lastly, a Wisconsin Badgers defense that’s struggled with giving up chunk plays all season (bottom third in the NCAA) also has a huge tackling issue — and was credited with 16 missed tackles as a team. This Wisconsin football defense isn’t talented enough to overcome these sloppy mistakes and is a clear point of emphasis to clean up during the bye week.
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell look on prior to the start of the game at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
On Friday night, Wisconsin Football laid down a 21-point victory in their Big Ten Conference opener against Purdue; now, the Badgers sit outside the top 25 in the AP polls with a 3-1 record (1-0 Big Ten) heading into a Week 5 bye before taking on Rutgers.
Wisconsin Football Falls Outside the Top 25 in Updated SP+ Rankings
For anyone unfamiliar with the ESPN SP+ model, it’s not your father’s associated press top 25 poll. It’s a forward-facing, Predictive model that serves as a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency.
With that out of the way, the Week 4 SP+ rankings currently have Wisconsin football as the No. 27 team in the country — down two spots from last week. According to the metric, the Badgers have an overall grade of 13.2, with the No. 39 offense, No. 18 defense, and No. 4 special teams unit.
Other notable Big Ten programs in the SP+ top 10 include Michigan (1), Ohio State (3), and Penn State (10).
When the Badgers come out of the bye week, Wisconsin football begins a tough stretch of games against Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State. Let’s hope the coaching staff can make necessary defensive adjustments, clean up the penalties on offense, and work in the younger running backs who must fill the No. 2 role after losing Chez Mellusi for the season.