Can Braedyn Locke Avoid Pressure and lead Wisconsin Football to Victory?

It’s almost gameday, and I’m back to bring you an “Analytics” Preview of Wisconsin Football and their Matchup vs. Illinois!

If you missed it, read my Analytics Recap of Game 6 vs. Iowa.

But let’s dive into our matchup vs. the Fighting Illini

Illinois Offense:

Personnel Grouping & Play-Mix:

Illinois really only deploys two Personnel groupings. 11 Personnel (1RB | 1TE) and 12 Personnel (1RB | 2TE), when in 11 Personnel the Illini are much more balanced. Passing “only” 58% of the time and Running 42%.

While in 12 Personnel, that Run/Pass Mix changes to become a bit more predictable. With 75% Run to 25% Pass. So if we see 2TE sets, we can assume they’re likely to run the ball.

Route concepts:

Illinois run a ton of Screen Plays, nearly 20% of all Pass ATTs! An additional 50% of their Pass ATTs come on Outs, Curls, Slants, and Digs. All with about 2.5-5 Air Yards/ATT.

So…

Roughly ~70% of their Pass ATTs are shorter than 5 Yards Downfield on Average.

But on about 15% they push the ball downfield quite aggressively! So we can’t get lulled to sleep.

(The Blue Line is AIR YARDS/ATT x ROUTE)

To Luke Altmeyer’s credit, he’s not HORRIBLE. But certainly, he struggles as he pushes the ball downfield seeing his On-TGT % drop quite dramatically from the Mid-70% —> Mid-50s%. This is also where his INTs come in as well:

Those Deep Balls are going to give Hallman, Smith, and Wohler opportunities to make some plays. Iowa didn’t give us any solid opportunities to turn them over in plus territory, Illinois will give us more chances.

Wisconsin football will have to take advantage…

Illinois vs. Pass Coverages:

Looking at Illinois and how they fare vs. particular coverages. They have seen a lot of Cover 1. The rest has been a mix of Cover 3/4 & Screens.

What we can see is that vs. Cover 1 & Cover 3 Altmeyer’s On-TGT % is around 61%

Illinois Running Game:

Run Type:

Illinois, like many teams, relies on a heavy dose of Inside Zone. What’s impressive is Illinois doesn’t get stuffed very often on those Inside Zone Runs—less than 10% Stuff Rate. The rest of their Run-Game is QB Runs, but on those runs Illinois Stuff Rate is 22% over 2X Higher. Their Stuff Rate is elevated to those levels on all the rest of their Runs.

Illinois has struggled running the ball, coming in 91st in the FBS in YPA.

What Challenge will Illinois Present the Wisconsin Football Offense?

Illinois Coverages:

Illinois plays A TON of Cover 1. The rest they sprinkle in some Cover 3 and play almost no Cover 2/4.

Illinois Pass Rush:

It’s a pretty standard look here from Illinois, as they play in a 3-man Defensive Front. A ton of “DT” Pass Rushes with few “DE” Pass Rushes and the remainder of it from LB Pass Rushes.

Illinois hasn’t been able to get a ton of good pressure on the QB from its most used Pass Rushers (DT). Where they have been successful at getting pressure is by sending CB and LB blitzes! The good news is that they rarely send their CBs, which generate the highest Pressure Rate.

However, Wisconsin football seems to struggle when the blitzes get more elaborate. I fear this will be the case given to generate pressure from that 4th and 5th Rusher. Illinois utilizes its LBs. If they get exotic with stunts and twists, I fear Locke could face a lot more pressure relative to what we’ve seen Illinois generate all Season.

Braedyn Locke vs. Mordecai Avoiding Pressure is a Must for Wisconsin Football

This is a big question for many fans coming into the game vs. Illinois. Can Braedyn Locke avoid those critical mistakes?

Comparing him to Mordecai on albeit a very small sample size and in a really hard circumstance is a bit unfair. But we’re going to do it anyway.

Looking at Locke vs. Iowa and 1 Snap vs. Ga. Southern and Mordecai from what he’s shown this entire Season:

Right now, Locke has a 2X higher Sack Rate at 9% vs. 4.33% for Mordecai.

And from a Sack – Pressure Rate, which measures his ability to avoid Sacks when faced with Pressure. Locke’s 33% Sack – Pressure Rate is about 1.7X higher than Mordecai’s.

With more reps, Locke will get better.

The question becomes how many reps and with his feet not quite as quick, how elevated at his best are these numbers to Mordecai’s?

Given the way the Wisconsin football O-Line has performed, this also gives me the most cause for concern around Locke. I don’t have questions about his “Processing” ability and Arm-Talent. I’m more concerned about his feet and avoiding pressure. If he can get to Mordecai’s level of Sack Avoidance, I think we can start to rebuild our expectations for the rest of this season!

Illinois vs. 11 Personnel:

Given how much Illinois Plays Cover 1, it’s not shocking that they load the box more often than not vs. 11 Personnel!

From a Coverage usage standpoint, when teams have gone 11-Personnel this Season, there is a bit of a changeup. They go significantly less Cover 1, with only about 55% USG. In place of that they go more Cover 3, about 27% USG.

That’s a significant deviation from their Overall style where they run about 70% Cover 1. And only 21% Cover 3. So, a very significant shift in how they operate when they get spread out!

How Will Wisconsin Football Attack Illinois in 11 Personnel?

We’ve seen our PA/RPO % drop slightly, especially last week with how much Cover 1 Man they played. This was really out of the norm for Iowa, but given the way we’ve been able to run the ball it forced their hand. They rose to the challenge.

This leads me to believe we’ll see an increase in Cover 1 from Illinois, and they’ll use Iowa’s blueprint. And given that shift we shied away from running the ball on 2nd Down vs. Iowa.

I’m very interested to see how Longo switches up the game plan, given what we were doing last week and how that didn’t work for us. We need to find ourselves more in 3rd and “Manageable” situations with Locke. If we get into some obvious passing downs, I think we’ll see constant Blitzes, and that could increase the likelihood of his pocket presence mistakes.

I’ve got the trust in Longo to get that done!

Final thoughts on Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois:

Implied Line:

VEGAS SPREAD is Wisconsin -2.5 & O/U 41. This implies a Score of:

Wisconsin Football: 23 vs. Illinois: 20

***

It’s a tough feeling losing to your rival. It’s even tougher when in that game, you lose your Starting QB, and the prospect of making a B1G Championship Game seems out of reach.

I don’t necessarily think that’s true. With Deacon Hill at the helm for Iowa, there is a legitimate chance they lose two more games this season. I’m keeping my eyes on the Rutgers & Nebraska games. Rutgers has a Top-35 Rush Defense, and Nebraska is 6th in the FBS in Rush YPA allowed at 2.7 YPA. Given Hill’s inability to throw the ball effectively, if they can’t run the ball things could get ugly for Iowa in those games.

All that to say, if we take care of business vs. Illinois. Get through Ohio State and finish out the season strong. There’s a legitimate chance we can make a trip to Indy. But it’s out of our control…and that’s what hurts most.

Given the talk in the media from the players, I don’t sense any of them have “given up” as they shouldn’t, even though many fans have thrown in the towel.

I’m not ready to do so…not quite yet. I think this group has another level they can get to. It’s just my gut feeling.

My Prediction:

Wisconsin: 38 Illinois: 20

On Wisconsin!

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