Wisconsin Basketball is Officially BATTLE TESTED with Win over SMU

That was a gutsy and gritty performance from Wisconsin Basketball on Wednesday Night. They battled and battled throughout the game, even when things were most certainly not falling their way. They were getting fantastic 3P looks that weren’t falling. Meanwhile, SMU was seemingly making everything they threw up at the hoop. It felt like Providence all over again, but unlike vs. Providence. The energy, focus and attention to detail never seemed to leave from our guys like it did vs. the Friars.

They’ve turned a corner. They have that belief in themselves that they severely lacked on the road vs. Providence. It’s beyond exciting to see that, and it gives me hope that as they transition into the “Gauntlet” (Marquette, AT MSU, AT Arizona), they’ll be able to roll with the punches and deliver some of their own!

Now.

Let’s dive deeper into the results and Analytics to further break things down!!

4-Factor Prediction vs. Actuals Analysis:

As you can recall, I projected a 3-point Win vs. SMU:

We were better in every factor but ONE on Monday Night. And you should be able to guess which one that was.

• NoT eFG% Margin | UW Lost 1.06 Points vs. Expectation
• STOP FACTOR | UW Gained 0.54 Points vs. Expectation | WOW!!
• OPP STOP FACTOR | UW Gained 1.03 Points vs. Expectation
• FT MARGIN | UW Lost 1.24 Points vs. Expectation

Based on the results, the Model would have projected a 5.20-point Victory. So some slight outperformance by UW to the Model! So let’s look at the results driving the 4-Factors to get a better sense of what happened.

NoT eFG% Margin:

UW was a little worse than expected from beyond the arc vs. SMU. Outside of 3P shooting, we were right on the mark for what was expected based on my NoT eFG% Model.

eFG% Rates:

1. AT-RIM (< 4.5FT) = 70.6% (12/17)
2. IN-PAINT = 44.4% (8/18)
3. MIDRANGE = 33.3% (1/3)
4. ATB 3s = 37.5% (5/20 = 7.5/20) | 3 > 2
5. Corner 3s = 0% (0/4 = 0/4) | 3 > 2

It really was shooting that gave SMU the bump in NoT eFG% Margin over Wisconsin Basketball Wednesday. Had they taken better care of the basketball things could have been much different. They had a 28% TO Rate in the 1st Half, now we can argue whether or not those TOs would have deflated their eFG% in the 1st Half. But when you’re hot you’re hot, and they could have easily extended a healthy double-digit lead over UW.

eFG% Rates:

• AT-RIM (< 4.5FT) = 41.7% (5/12)
• IN-PAINT = 50.0% (7/14)
• MIDRANGE = 33.3% (3/9)
• ATB 3s = 92.3% (8/13 = 12/13) | 3 > 2
• Corner 3s = 0% (0/2 = 0/2) | 3 > 2

STOP FACTOR & OPP STOP FACTOR:

A 2.08 STOP FACTOR, which is a solid performance. But it wasn’t because we kept them off the O Boards like we did vs. Virginia. In actuality, we underperformed what my DREB% Model would expect by 13%!! Massive underperformance, and is something I would chalk that up to first and foremost luck or normal variance, but also SMU’s length & athleticism which I don’t have a good way right now to build in. I could maybe add some sort of qualitative measure on a 1-5 scale to add an eye test. But in terms of quantitative “measurables” (Wingspan – Vertical Jump) I have none.

SMU STOP FACTOR:

Our Offensive Rebounding is one of the most positive developments I’ve seen and this a huge reason our Offensive efficiency is really outperforming given our eFG%.

Take a look at our OREB% in the KenPom Era:

In the last 6 years under Greg Gard, we’ve seen a complete and utter lack of Offensive Rebounding. Couple that with the poor shooting we’ve also experienced in these seasons and it’s no wonder we’ve only notched one Top 30 KenPom Offensive Efficiency Season (29th in 2021). Right now we’re #22 in Adjusted OEFF in Kenpom & our Offensive Rebounding is a HUGE part of that!

FT Margin:

Antother key area where we’ve been outperforming our recent history is FTA Rate:

I know an old adage for Bo Ryan and Gard was to make more FTs than their Opponents ATTEMPTED. This has two facets, one you’re getting to the line often and shooting a high percentage.

But also you aren’t fouling your opponent; giving them efficient offense. Wisconsin Made as many FTs as SMU Attempted, and if they keep doing that…they’re going to win a ton of ballgames this year!

• Wisconsin: FTAR = 21.0% | FT % = 92.3% | 12/13
• Robert Morris: FTAR = 23.5% | FT % = 58.3% | 7/12
• FT Margin = +5

Wisconsin Basketball Player Metrics:

Wisconsin Basketball PPS (Points Per Shot):

Chucky – Midrange 2 vs. Pull-Up 3s:

Here’s a link to a Tweet from Shot Quality surrounding Chucky’s ability to shoot Off-the-Dribble 3PT shots. Which he’s really adept at. The problem that I’ve been seeing is that he oftentimes turns down okay Pull-Up 3P looks for contested Midrange 2s.

I’m not sure why.

Harris, Kam Taylor, Flowers, Hughes, Jordan Taylor, Koenig, and Trice ALL shot those looks at an extremely high rate. All of whom shot in the Upper 30s %! It’s the one area of Chucky’s game that I really don’t like, and it’s not just hurting him. It’s hurting the team, and for no good reason. He’s a fantastic 3P shooter in Catch & Shoot & Off-Dribble 0. He needs to continue shooting them MORE!

In other news…Crowl & Wahl had the nights from an efficiency standpoint we need night in and night out (> 1.00 PPS). Given the volume we’ll see from them in our Post-Up heavy offense, that’s our engine and helps open up everything else in our offense!

Wisconsin Basketball Points-Created/USG%:

Our assist rate was down 21.9% from our season average and is impacting our Points-Created per USG Rate. But Steven Crowl was the only one in 1.00+ territory, which is unsurprising and could have been much higher had we knocked down a few more 3P looks out of the Double-Team skip passes.

Wisconsin Basketball Ball Security Factor:

Blackwell & McGee are at the top of this list in both outings down in Fort Myers! Which is fantastic to see and really important when you think of their roles and what we need from them.

A funny tweet I saw from Bart Torvik around Carter Gilmore and his 14 Trillion Wednesday Night. People may roll their eyes at his continued minutes, but I’ll say again he’s usually NEVER in the minus column in Ball-Security, almost never below 1.00 in PPS or Points-Created/USG%. And what he adds from a defensive versatility standpoint and front-court depth continues to be underrated by Badger fandom. I will continue to laud Gilmore’s impact on this team!

We’ve got Western Illinois on Monday. Hopefully, the guys were able to enjoy a great Early-Season Tournament Win & a great Thanksgiving. But I also hope they’re focused and back to work today prepping for a very important stretch of games. I’ll have a preview out Sunday or Monday morning of Western Illinois.

On Wisconsin!