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Wisconsin Basketball Analytics: Why AJ Storr is the “Perfect Fit” for the Badgers

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Wisconsin basketball transfer AJ Storr
Mar 9, 2023; New York, NY, USA; St. John's Red Storm guard AJ Storr (2) brings the ball up court against the Marquette Golden Eagles during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Madison, Wis. –The Wisconsin Badgers just added a major piece to their basketball roster with the acquisition of A.J. Storr from the Transfer Portal. The 6-foot-6 guard from Peoria, Ill., had an impressive freshman year at St. John’s in the Big East, but with the arrival of Rick Pitino and the departure of Mike Anderson, Storr was in search of a new home. And after a competitive recruitment process, Storr ultimately chose the Badgers and head coach Greg Gard over top programs such as UCONN and SDSU.

Let’s explore how Storr’s “Analytics” makes him a “Perfect Fit” for what Wisconsin needs in the 2023-2024 Season and why he’ll play a pivotal role in the Badgers’ success next season.

Player Metrics – AJ Storr’s Season Trends:

Points/Shot:

Points/Shot Formula = Points / FGAs + (0.5*FTA)

Season Average = 1.07 Points/Shot

AJ Storr had an impressive season, scoring at least 0.80 points per shot in 27 out of 33 games. That’s only 6 cold nights all year, and a majority of those games came early in the season. Storr also had an unbelievable 13 games in which he broke the 1.20 Points/Shot barrier!!! That’s EXTREMELY efficient shooting

It looks as though his #’s did slide a bit down the stretch, but so did Essegians. You’d have to think that:

  1. Frosh Ceiling/Stamina plays a significant factor
  2. Teams begin to realize (as they did with Essegian) you cannot give him open looks.

Points Created/USG%:

Points-Created/USG% Formula = (Per40 Points + Per40AST Value) / (USG% * 100)

Season Average = 1.02 Points-Created/USG%

Normally, a Player’s Points-Created/USG% is HIGHER than his Points/Shot. This isn’t the case for Storr. Why is it usually higher?

Well, Assists allows you to create much higher value per “USG %” than just shooting because, unlike shooting, you only get an AST added to your USG unless it’s a make. So an AST, especially 3P ASTs, is a gold mine for adding value on a USG basis!! Storr turns it over more than he dishes to teammates for scores, so he dips in his Points/USG vs. Points/Shot.

Ball Security Factor:

Ball Security Factor Formula = DREB% + ( AST RATE – TO RATE) + STL%

Average Ball-Security Factor = 5%

This graph gives me the most hope for Storr to receive the level of minutes people expect him to get at UW next year.

You have to be able to take care of the basketball for Gard & Staff to give you consistent minutes. Limiting turnovers is the key tenant of Wisconsin Basketball, well, that and Man-Man defense. Through Storr’s first 16 games of college basketball, he ended roughly half of those at or below 0% Ball Security. That is not good. BUT!

In games 17-33, he had only ONE Game at or below 0% Ball Security!!

This is tremendous development in a single season and a terrific sign that lack of Ball-Security won’t limit the number of minutes he’ll see as a Badger!!!

USAGE %:

USAGE % Formula = % of Team’s FGAs, FTs, AST, TOs while on Court

Average USG % = 20%

This chart is really interesting because when you compare AJ Storr’s Points/Shot chart to his Points-Created/USG% chart, you’ll notice that his Points/Shot are consistently high while his Points-Created/USG% are somewhat all over the place.

Here’s the dichotomy:

In games where Storr has a low usage rate (USG) of less than 20%, he has a Points-Created of more than 1.00 about 68.8% of the time.

However, when his USG is high (more than 20%), he only achieves a Points-Created of more than 1.00 about 47.1% of the time.

The advantage for Storr is that he’ll be playing alongside Essegian, which means they can share the production load. Thus reducing the pressure to perform, and their USG rates will depend more on how well they perform rather than forcing the issue regardless.

So that’s a primer on Storr and how he performed at St. John’s in 2022-2023 in the analytic metrics I care about. This leads me to my next topic and the reason why I think Storr is the “Perfect Fit” for us!!!

AJ Storr’s Shot Profile:

Yeah….that’s called balance.

  • He drives (More to his left than his right)
  • He shoots 3’s (More Guarded Looks vs. Unguarded, and you’ll see why!!)
  • He also gets into the Dribble Pull-Up

A True 3-Level Scorer!!!

How does this compare to the current Wisconsin Basketball Wing/Forward Production?

Last season, there was a lack of 3-point shooting and dribble penetration from the 3 and 4 positions (Wahl/Gilmore/Davis/Ilver). As you can see, Storr will bring that dynamic to Wisconsin Basketball immediately. This makes Storr the “Perfect Fit” for UW at these positions for 2023-2024!!

While the ability to Penetrate & get into the Pull-Up game is an important aspect of Storr’s game, where he really shines is in his 3P Shooting!!!

3PT Shooting:

How did he perform over the course of the 2022-2023 Season?:

Grey Bars = ATTs/G | Black Line = Game X Game 3P% | Red Line = Season 3P%

  • Storr hit his stride in games 11-24, raising his 3P % from 37%-47% in that time.

  • It looks as though Storr hit the same Frosh Ceiling that Essegian hit, with his 3P% dipping to 40.4% at Year-End.

Open vs. Guarded C&S 3s:

Here is an eye-popping graph.

AJ Storr is particularly deadly at shooting catch-and-shoot (C&S) 3-pointers when left open, but his shooting efficiency drops significantly when he is heavily guarded. On the other hand, when you look at Essegian, there is not much of a difference in his shooting efficiency between open and guarded C&S 3-pointers.

Grey Bars = Ungarded 3P ATTs | Red Line = % of 3P Looks Unguarded

This chart is telling me that having both Essegian and Storr on the court will result in them BOTH getting more open and high-quality 3-point looks, which will be a huge boost to their efficiency and for UW’s entire offensive efficiency in the upcoming season.

Just think how many times we had guys on the floor who you could be content leaving open freely (Gilmore/Wahl/Davis/McGee). With the additions of Noah Reynolds and now Storr, that simply won’t be an option for opposing defenses. UW will now have Five Players from the G/F spot that will constantly be stretching the defense!!!

Why Wisconsin Basketball is better because of Storr’s Commitment:

This is a Slam-Dunk get for GG and Staff! He’s a “Perfect Fit” for Wisconsin Basketball its current needs going into the 2023-2024 Season. Storr is a highly touted Wing/Forward who is also a 3-Level Scorer. Does that remind you of anybody who was missing from UW’s Roster this season???

Now I’m not at all saying AJ Storr is the next Johnny Davis. But there are a lot of similarities to their games. The switch-up is that Storr does a lot more of his “Damage” outside the 3P Line, whereas Johnny did a ton of his work inside it!

BUT….check out these two graphs!

Here’s a comparison of Frosh Johnny and Storr:

Chew on those graphs for a little while…

Where this puts Wisconsin Basketball in terms of 247 Composite Rating:

Refresher on the Calculation:

Player’s 247 Composite Rating * MPG/200 (200 = Total Minutes of 5 Players) = Player Score

Team Composite Rating = Summation of all Player Scores

 

The win prediction model has been quite accurate, with only a slight difference of -3% in the 2022-2023 season. Based on the projected lineup and minutes distribution using the 247 Composite Projection, UW is expected to comfortably win over 25 games next season with the addition of Storr.

It seems that GG and the coaching staff have finished their work in the Portal for now unless there are any more unexpected departures. With the arrival of Reynolds and Storr, along with Yalden, Winter, and Blackwell, UW’s 2023 class looks solid. This team is going to be a serious contender next season, with a possible Big Ten title and a spot in the Elite Eight within the next two seasons!


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Wisconsin Basketball News: Badgers Miss on Blue-Chip Recruit, Scrimmage Announced, More

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Wisconsin basketball; Badgers coach Greg Gard talks to Max Klesmit
Mar. 2, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Max Klesmit (11) talks with head coach Greg Gard during the second half of their game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Kohl Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a busy week for the Wisconsin basketball program, ladies and gents, but you’re in luck because BadgerNotes can help get you back up to speed with a roundup of some important Badgers hoops news you may have missed.

Wisconsin Basketball Misses on Five-Star In-State Recruit 

Five-star shooting guard Kon Knueppel, out of Milwaukee (WI), has been Greg Gard’s top target in the 2024 recruiting class for over two years. 

According to the industry-generated composite recruiting rankings, the 6-foot-6 sharpshooter is the No. 16 player in the country, the No. 7 SF, and the No. 1 recruit in America’s Dairyland. 

After taking official visits to Marquette, Alabama, Virginia, Duke, and UW earlier this month, the Badgers learned on Thursday that Knueppel was taking his talents to Durham and joining Jon Scheyer and the Blue Devils. 

While the news is undoubtedly disappointing, Wisconsin basketball did everything they could in this recruitment — and even put together a “substantial” NIL package. 

As it stands, UW has the No. 22 ranked recruiting class in the country, holding verbal commitments from Daniel Freitag and Jack Robison in the 2024 cycle.

Wisconsin Badgers Announce Red-White Scrimmage Date 

On Thursday, the University of Wisconsin basketball program put out a press release announcing that the annual Red-White scrimmage will take place on Sunday, October 15, at 4 PM central time. 

Per usual, the Badgers scrimmage will be free, with seating awarded on a first-come, first-serve basis. The gates will open at 2:30 PM for anyone wanting an up close and personal look at this year’s squad. 

Additionally, this will be the first Wisconsin men’s basketball event in which alcohol will be available for purchase — which is a massive win for Badgers fans. 

One last thing of note: the Red-White scrimmage takes place on a bye week for the Green Bay Packers, a savvy move by the athletic department. 

Other Wisconsin Basketball News

Although Wisconsin basketball is more than likely done in the 2024 cycle and moving on to the 2025 recruiting class, the Badgers coaches are still keeping tabs on top 150 big man Jaden Smith out of Chicago, Illinois.

According to the composite rankings, Smith is the No. 146 overall player in the 2024 recruiting cycle, the No. 26 C in the country, and the No. 5 player in Illinois.

As it stands, Smith holds offers from Georgia Tech, Arizona State, Dayton, Eastern Michigan, Illinois State, St. Louis, TCU, and others. However, Wisconsin Badgers assistant coach Dean Oliver has kept in contact with the 6-foot-11 big man and plans to attend an open gym later this fall to watch Smith again up close.

Smith isn’t your traditional Wisconsin basketball big man. He’s a rim-running shot blocker with above-average athleticism who can make plays above the rim.

His game is still a big raw, but there’s enough untapped potential to warrant maintaining contact in recruitment that is “wide open,” according to Smith. There’s also some mutual interest — so we’ll continue to monitor their relationship now that the Badgers have their answer on Kon Knuppel.



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Wisconsin Basketball Fans React: Badgers Miss on 5-Star Recruit

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Wisconsin Basketball; Badgers recruiting target Kon Knueppel
Wisconsin Lutheran guard Kon Knueppel (33) handles the ball against Pewaukee guard Nick Janowski (25) on Tuesday January 3, 2023, at Wisconsin Lutheran High School in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

The Wisconsin Badgers basketball program was in the thick of the recruiting battle for in-state prospect Kon Knueppel. The five-star prospect out of Wisconsin Lutheran (Milwaukee) officially visited UW earlier this year. A sharpshooting wing and top-20 prospect in the nation, the leading scorer on Nike’s EYBL circuit was a highly coveted prospect. After official visits with the Badgers, Marquette, Alabama, Virginia, and Duke, he has made his decision.

Top Wisconsin Basketball Recruiting Target Commits to Duke

The 2024 recruit announced his commitment to the Duke Blue Devils on the website formerly known as Twitter. Wisconsin basketball fans used the same website to voice their opinions on his decision. Some took it in stride. Others, not so much.

Despite what you might think, some level-headed people are on the internet. Even people in college basketball fandom. I know, shocking, right?


At the end of the day, these are teenagers trying to make the best decisions for the future. It is important to remember that. Watching Wisconsin basketball fans take a commitment to another program in stride is always a welcome sight.

Wisconsin Basketball Fans Have Harsh Reaction to Recruit’s Decision

Not all fans took the high road this time. Some had to get some pretty negative feelings out there.


Getting my head checked aside, these last two are so odd to me. “I am not saying this 17-year-old I have never met before is dead to me, but I did want to say it.” Or do you prefer, “I want to say a lot of mean things, but do not fret! I am showing restraint at this time!” Who asked? At least they make for good content for me to riff on!

Wisconsin Basketball Fans Want Greg Gard Fired

Check your watch! What time do you have? Mine must be broken because it says it is once again time to fire Badgers head coach Greg Gard. The Wisconsin basketball head coach, who has won two of the last four Big Ten titles, simply cannot manage to do anything right.


Maybe this was a bad metaphor. A broken watch is still right twice a day, after all. Oh well, it stays in.

Wisconsin Sports Celebrities Comment On Kon Knueppel Committing to Duke

Okay, “celebrities” (multiple) may be pushing it. I mean no disrespect to the Don – the one real celebrity here. Scary Alvarez and Packers beat reporter Rob Demovsky added their thoughts on Knueppel’s commitment Thursday night.


Despite losing out on Knueppel, Wisconsin basketball still has a solid 2024 recruiting class. The group ranks 22nd nationally and fifth in the Big Ten according to the 247Sports Composite. It is comprised of two commits, Daniel Freitag and Jack Robison.

Wisconsin Football Fans React: Badgers Defeat Georgia Southern



Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Kedrick Stumbris on Twitter @KedrickStumbris.

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Wisconsin Basketball Announces 2023-24 Big Ten Schedule

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Wisconsin Badgers basketball head coach Greg Gard
Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard is shown during the second half of their game Thursday, March 2, 2023 at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wis. Purdue beat Wisconsin 63-61.

You read that right: Wisconsin Basketball is right around the corner. Although football season just started, it’s never too early to talk Badgers hoops.

The Big Ten released the 2023-2024 men’s basketball schedule. Just like last year, Wisconsin will have one conference game in December and then return to Big Ten play again in January. This is one of the toughest and most exciting schedules I have seen recently.

Let’s take a look at some early thoughts on the schedule.

Wisconsin Basketball Has a Tough First Week of December

I mentioned how tough this schedule will be for Wisconsin basketball, and the first week of December is indicative of that. The Badgers will host Marquette on December 2nd, travel to East Lansing for their Big Ten opener against Michigan State on December 5th, and then head to Arizona on December 9th.

Safe to say, Wisconsin basketball fans will get a good sense of how great this team can be early on.

Wisconsin Basketball Has an Exciting Home Schedule

The Kohl Center should be rocking this year. Wisconsin basketball has a plethora of really intriguing home games this season. UW will have 13 games this year where they face a NCAA tournament team from last year. With nine of those being at the Kohl Center. Five Friday night home games, which include matchups with Tennessee, Indiana, and Michigan State.

On top of that, 5 Saturday/Sunday home games, including matchups with Marquette, Purdue, and Illinois. With the addition of alcohol being served at the Kohl Center now, I expect the Wisconsin basketball home crowd to be rowdy this year!



Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Griffin Gamble on Twitter, @gamble_griffin3

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