Wisconsin Football vs. Washington State Analytics Game Preview

It’s almost gameday, and I’m back to bring you an “Analytics” Preview of Wisconsin Football and their Week 2 Matchup vs. Washington State!

If you missed it, read my Analytics Recap of Game 1 vs. Buffalo!

But let’s dive into our Week 2 matchup vs. the Washington State Cougars!!

Containing Cam Ward is Goal #1:

This is what it will come down to for Wisconsin; Ward is an extremely dynamic QB. So, let’s dive into how Washington State utilizes him and how we can slow him down. Because I can assure you we won’t be able to “stop” him from putting up numbers.

Route concepts:

Washington State really likes to utilize Screen Plays in their Passing Game. So that will be something Wisconsin isn’t necessarily used to, and discipline will be key in the 2nd & 3rd levels of the defense to maintain a good position to make plays on those routes!!

Other than that Curls, Outs, and Slants were the biggest pieces of the 2022 Passing Game under Cam Ward. That looks to hold true in 2023 as well. But a few more Fade balls in Week 1 for Ward…which makes me nervous, especially if UW plays as much Cover 1 as we did in Week 1!! If Washington State adds some rubs/picks on those, they could generate some BIG plays. But being as though we got beat on those in Week 1, I assume that Tressel will have our guys ready to combat that!!

Cam Ward Performance x Coverages:

In 2022, Cam Ward struggled against Cover 1, so there may be some credence to Mike Tressel running more of that Coverage Scheme. Especially if that can help generate more Pressure and or dedicate a spying LB/S who can contain any big plays out of the pocket from Ward.

But that was 2022, and obviously, our sample size for 2023 is extremely small. But Ward is pushing the ball further down the field against Cover 1 & Cover 3 with Higher On-TGT %’s & Lower INT Rates!!!

The guy is the real deal…so how do we slow him down?!?

Get Cam Ward on the move?:

On the Move, it’s pretty clear that Ward is not as accurate with his passing. His On-TGT % was significantly lower in 2022 when he was on the move vs. when he was firmly planted in the pocket. While his 2023 numbers are much better, I’m not putting much if any weight to his Week 1 Performance vs. Colorado St.!

Also, his INT Rate was nearly 2x higher while he was on the move in 2022. Through Week 1, he was able to protect the ball well. How that holds up only time will tell. But if 2022 is any indication, we must get him moving and uncomfortable. This is something Darryl Peterson mentioned quite often in his Tuesday Press Conference! If we play a bunch of Cover 1 like Week 1, pressure will have to be constant; otherwise, I’m worried Ward will be way too much to handle given time and a clean pocket

Will Wazzu be able to run the football vs. Wisconsin Football?

Run Types:

It looks like Washington State, who runs an Air Raid/Spread style, is very similar to many teams with a heavy dose of Inside Zone/Outside Zone Run Schemes and has a good mix of Power run schemes as well. Although they seem to struggle quite a bit on Power Run Schemes. But excel on the Inside Zone, which they run the most of by a pretty good margin.

The Wisconsin Badgers Struggled a bit against the Inside Zone vs. Buffalo. Giving up 5 YPA & a Stuff Rate of only 12.5%. This was especially disappointing considering they had a Hit At the Line Rate of 37.5%. Cleaning up some tackling will bode well for Wisconsin Football heading into this matchup!!!

Run Direction:

Based on what we just talked about, it should be no shock that Wazzu really relies on Inside/Middle runs to keep Defenses honest. You’ll have to commit guys in the Box, or they will run it on you!!! And they’ll have some success, especially if your tackling is suspect!!

What will the Wazzu Defense present to Wisconsin Football?:

Coverages:

Washington State will play a heavy dose of Cover 3 & Cover 1. They’ll also sprinkle some Cover 2 and Cover 4 in there as well, but it looks as though Dickert will mainly rely on Cover 3/Cover 1.

Pass Rush:

Washington State really didn’t dial up a ton of blitzes from the LB/S/CB position in their Week 1 Matchup vs. Colorado State. I suppose they didn’t need to? So, it’s obvious Colorado State certainly didn’t fail on Saturday because they were heavily pressured:

Despite good pressure on some Safety Blitzes, Washington State’s Pass Rush was…MEH. With no other Position group generating more than a 10% Pressure Rate. That isn’t very good at all!!! Hopefully, this means Mordecai will have time and a clean pocket to generate some big plays in the Wisconsin Pass Game!!!

The Magic Question is…which Poison will Wazzu pick vs. Wisconsin Football?:

Washington State vs. 11 Personnel:

It looks like vs. 11 Personnel, Washington State keeps the box “Light” (6 Men or Less) about 64% of the time! Braelon & Chez are currently SALIVATING for ROUND 2!!! For those who believe we MUST AIR IT OUT to be successful, just think we have the best Running Back, and they’re going to be in 1:1 situations with LBs & Ss nearly 65% of the game. Why wouldn’t you want to pound the rock and make the defense start to commit 7 guys into the box? And then you can start to air it out and push the ball downfield on Cover 2 and Cover 1 coverage?!?

So let’s analyze how Washington State likes to defend 11 Personnel, which was UW’s most favored package in Week 1.

11 Personnel Run D:

Nothing shocking here. Stuff Rate “should” increase as Washington State loads the box and their opponents decide to run the ball! What is fairly interesting is how high BOTH Stuff Rates are. Washington State was a bit fiesty against the run last year, it seems. And looking at the statistics, it checks out…they were a top 45 Run Defense last year; nothing to scoff at. But I have confidence they weren’t facing Wisconsin Football caliber O-Line’s out of 11 Personnel for most of 2022-2023!

11 Personnel Pass D:

What is interesting here is that even though opponents saw a bunch of light boxes vs. 11 Personnel, they still decided to pass the ball quite often. This probably is a Pac-12 symptom. If they show 70% Light Boxes vs. Wisconsin Football and Longo’s RPO style, Mordecai will give it and Let Braelon Allen & Chez Mellusi RUN WILD!!!

Final thoughts on Wisconsin Badgers vs. Washington State:

Implied Line:

VEGAS SPREAD is Wisconsin -6.5 & O/U 58.5. This implies a Score of:

Wisconsin Football: 33 vs. Washington State: 26

That’s a Chris Berman Line right there; nobody knows how we will get to those numbers. Swami Sez.

Final Thoughts:

Let’s dispense with all the talk about Week 1. It’s over. We beat the dead horse with our analysis, and now it’s time to see what this will look like against a Power 5 Opponent. This was always going to be the gut-check game: Do we really have it, or Do we not?

I think this team has it! Cam Ward will be a tough QB to face. He’s got really good arm strength. He can throw every ball on the Route Tree, and most dangerously, he can use his feet to extend plays. But what UW will need to do is pressure him and make him make off-platform throws. At least, that’s what the data suggests based on his 2022 Performances, where his On-TGT % and INT Rate showed he was a fair bit worse off-platform.

We’re going to put up points against Washington State. I’m not concerned at all about that. Hell, we put up 38 Points on Buffalo, and 67% of our drives in the 1H were duds with no scores. That’s not something you could say about a Paul Chryst offense. Tanner Mordecai had a few mistakes, but the beautiful part is that IT DIDN’T COST US. Now, to beat teams like Ohio St. | Penn St. | Michigan, we need him to play clean + make a few really dynamic plays.

Washington State isn’t one of those teams; so we don’t need really dynamic plays from Mordecai. What we need is for him to continue to execute Longo’s calls by taking what the defense gives him. Which could mean giving on a ton of RPOs and dinking and dunking when they load the box. Letting our WR core make plays in space to extend to 10/15/20 yard chunks! And we also need him to take care of the ball, the benchmark for me with Tanner is an INT Rate <1.75%. Right now, he’s at 6.4%. A clean game against Washington State will get him right back on track to where he needs to be!

I think this line implies Vegas isn’t sold on Luke Fickell, Phil Longo & Mike Tressel…yet. I think Saturday vs. Washington State is the true arrival of this Wisconsin Football Team.

My Prediction:

Wisconsin: 45 Washington State: 20

On Wisconsin!

Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow me on Twitter @GardYourFickell

Join the BadgerNotes watch party and stream Wisconsin Badgers games by following this link.

*Subscribe to BadgerNotes After Dark on Youtube and wherever you find podcasts, the official Wisconsin Badgers podcast of the Big Banter Sports Network.