How Will Wisconsin Football Beat Rutgers? – Analytics Preview

It’s almost gameday, and I’m back to bring you an “Analytics” Preview of Wisconsin Football and the Badgers Week 6 Matchup vs. Rutgers!

If you missed it, read my Analytics Recap of Game 4 vs. Purdue or PART III of my “DEEP DIVE” series. Check them out!

But let’s dive into our Week 6 matchup vs. the Rutgers Scarlet Knights!!

Rutgers Offense:

Route concepts:

Rutgers really likes to utilize Out, Curl, Drag & Dig Routes in their Passing Game. Almost all of those routes except the Out routes are <5 Air Yards/ATT. So, they rarely push the ball downfield.

(The Grey Line is AIR YARDS/ATT x ROUTE)

How has Wimsatt performed from an On-TGT % standpoint?

Wimsatt really seems to struggle on those in-breaking routes. With Flats, Wheels, Outs, and Comebacks (out-breaking) as his highest On Target throws.

Whereas on Slants, Curls, Digs, and Post Routes, he struggles. Even though from an Air Yards/ATT standpoint, they aren’t any further downfield. So we should continue to expect quick/short throws that test us on the outside!!

Rutgers vs. Pass Coverages:

Looking at Rutgers (Gavin Wimsatt) and how they fare vs. particular coverages. They haven’t faced a ton of Cover 0, Cover 4 or Cover 6. What they have seen is a lot of is Cover 1. The rest has been a mix of Cover 2 | 3 | 4.

In most of his ATTs (Versus Cover 1 & Cover 3), Wimsatt has been quite Medicore from an On-TGT % basis with marks below 60%! This is true against all Coverages, excluding Cover 4! Needless to say, there will be errant throws out there on Saturday. We’ve taken advantage of those as a defense quite often in our last two matchups. I’d expect the same this Saturday!!!

Rutgers Running Game:

Run Type:

The Scarlet Knights rely on Inside Zone quite heavily. They mix-in Stretch, Outside Zone Runs, and QB Runs for the remainder of their Runs. They Run NO Power Runs, so don’t expect a lot of Guard or Tackle Pulls on Saturday. This spread & zone scheme was deployed by Purdue as well, who ran very minimal Power concepts as well.

We all know how Wisconsin football fared against Purdue in the run game. Hopefully, we watched the film and saw where those areas of opportunity were, and we’ve corrected them.

Otherwise, it could be tough sledding!! Because Rutgers can run the football a little bit!

Where they find most of their success on a YPA basis is in the Outside Zone. But they also do very well in QB Design Runs/Zone Reads. So we’ll have to be aware of Wimsatt, ranked by Rivals as a 4-Star and 10th Best Dual Threat QB in his Class. He’s shown his talents with close to 200 Yards Rushing on 4.6 YPA, and, more dangerously, 4 Rushing TDs. So in the Redzone, we’ll have to be extra aware of Scrambles & Zone-Reads and ensure we have him in our sights. Or he’ll burn us!

On top of the Outside runs, they also have been quite successful in the Inside Zone Run-Game. So they’ll be attacking the full width of the defense on Saturday!!

All other Run Plays are below 4 YPA and show a very low level of execution!

What Challenge will Rutgers Present the Wisconsin Football Offense?:

Rutgers Coverages:

Rutgers and Greg Schiano almost exclusively play Cover 1 & Cover 0! So, for those anticipating a bunch of Deep Shots downfield. I think we should see plenty on Saturday, especially with a bunch of 1-High Safety looks. Although I thought the same going into Purdue, and that didn’t materialize. That was more of a byproduct of a Strong Rushing Attack than an inability or desire to push the ball downfield vs. 1-High Safety Looks!

Rutgers should be able to challenge our Run-Game a bit better and maintain their LBs & Safety’s in the box, limiting our ability to get strong 2nd-level blocks. I think the goal will always be to challenge them downfield to push them into more Cover 3 looks which we can run on.

But if they can’t stop us, then “Pound The Rock” Longo!!!

Rutgers Pass Rush:

Rutgers really dials up pressure from the LBs. But they almost never bring pressure from the Safety or CB positions, which makes sense as they run a ton of Cover 1 Man.

It’s hard to blitz your CBs without putting some bad matchups with Safety’s & LBs on WRs!!

Rutgers hasn’t been able to get good pressure on the QB from its most used Pass Rushers (DE/DT/LB). Where they have been successful at getting pressure is by sending Safetys and Corners on blitzes! But…they don’t do it very often, and it all goes back to their Pass-Coverage choices.

I’ve been concerned with how this O-Line has performed in Pass-Blocking, given how impactful their poor performance in Week 2 vs. WSU was. But I think the Badgers can put to bed the notion that this O-Line isn’t Very Good to borderline ELITE.

We are currently 24th in Sack Rate through this Season, and if you exclude the WSU game, which has been an anomaly thus far. We’d have a Sack Rate that is the 12th-best in the Country!

Now, Sack Rate isn’t a complete O-Line Stat, but it definitely is a good barometer. But if you look at even just Pressure Rate Allowed, INCLUDING the WSU game, Wisconsin is 10th Best in the Country. The real problem was our Sack-Pressure Ratio in the Washington State Game was way too high!! Even throughout the Season, we’re 37th in Sack-Pressure Ratio, so when the dam breaks, there’s a higher chance it will lead to a sack!

Thankfully, the Big Guys up front have been walling up nicely! We just think they aren’t because when they DO FAIL, it’s led to a Sack! You’d have to dive deeper into the film to assign the blame between OL | RB | QB as to who takes the blame!

Rutgers vs. 11 Personnel:

Rutgers doesn’t look to load the box against 11 Personnel. Which we know is Phil Longo’s Bread-and-Butter Personnel grouping!!

They also significantly change their Coverage Usage when teams have gone 11-Personnel against them this Season. With only 36% Cover 0/1 USAGE. With a near equal 28% Cover 3 Usage!!!

But given our ability to Run the Football, especially against lighter boxes, I don’t think this will be the case on Saturday!!

How Will Wisconsin Football Attack Cover 0 & Cover 1 in 11 Personnel?:

This is a necessary question, because I think we’ll see a lot of Cover 1 just based on how well we’ve run the Football out of 11 Personnel!

There will be plenty of 1 on 1 opportunities for this WR Group and Mordecai to attack. Can we convert those opportunities? It will continue to be the question until we actually see it! They came sparingly vs. Washington State, which stymied us down the stretch and never truly got them to back off such aggressive Coverage and Box-Heaviness. If Rutgers loads the box and blows up the run, how will we respond?

This strategy that WSU used made our PA/RPO game successful. I’d like to see some increased usage of that if we see some loaded boxes pre-snap. Hopefully, with some connections in the Play-Action/RPO where they’re caught out of position and off-balance, we can get them to back off and play our Dairy Raid more honestly! But it’s also risky with such a Man-Man Heavy Defense, as their guys will be locked onto the TEs/Slots to take away those quick routes.

But I don’t think we should avoid it, especially if they play Cover 1!! Because when we’ve tried to pass it out of 11 Personnel vs. that Coverage, we’ve had far more success in PA/RPO concepts than Straight DBs to Pass!

Another reason why I think you’ll see Rutgers stick with a lot of Cover 1 is because Longo and Co. have ABSOLUTELY SHREDDED Cover 3 this year. It doesn’t matter what we do, PA/RPO or Straight DB. We’re averaging a scorching hot 9+ YPA on all types!!!

Final thoughts on Wisconsin Badgers vs. Rutgers:

Implied Line:

VEGAS SPREAD is Wisconsin -13 & O/U 44. This implies a Score of:

Wisconsin Football: 27 vs. Rutgers: 14

Final Thoughts:

I’m not sure that anyone believes in Luke Fickell & this Wisconsin Football Team yet. And I keep scratching my head, thinking, well…why not?

Well…

1. They haven’t played a single complete game, dominating from start to finish.
2. They’ve Lost a Game.
3. They’ve lost a cornerstone piece to their offense for possibly the Season
4. The Defense has lacked the ability to get consistent pressure
5. They’ve given up Gash Plays on the Ground
6. They’ve had broken coverages, allowing huge plays through the Air

But…

Despite these flaws, and despite them repeatedly putting us in a position with our backs against the wall. Most notably, being down 18 Points on the Road. We were still in a position to beat that now Top-15 WSU Team. Everyone else, we’ve beaten by 3 TDs. So take stock. I urge you!

I think what it should do is highlight a fact people aren’t assuming. And actually, they seem to have in reverse. Despite us not having the athletes with the skills USC, Penn State, Ohio State, or Michigan might have we still have something of theirs we didn’t for the better part of a decade.

We still have guys who can play, just not quite to that level. But we’re starting to get more of those top-tier SKILL Position 4-Star Players.

But what we have now is a SCHEME that puts our guys in consistent positions to make the best plays. They don’t always make them, absolutely, but they are there for the taking. That’s coaching, and that’s the edge I don’t think we’ve had on BOTH sides of the ball for the better part of a decade.

I’m glad my record highlights myself as being FIRMLY on this team’s bandwagon through all the ups and downs. I still believe this Team is 11-1 “Good”. That is where the facts still lead me to as a possible outcome.

And this team is SO CLOSE to breaking out; I’ve got this strong gut feeling it’s coming against Rutgers. Vaulting us into this October Stretch vs. Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State.

My Prediction:

Wisconsin football: 41 Rutgers: 17

On Wisconsin!

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