Wisconsin Basketball Picked 5th in B1G; Where Will Badgers Finish?

Last month, Wisconsin basketball was picked to finish fifth in the Big Ten according to the preseason media poll. After finishing 11th last season, that would be a welcome jump in the standings, but how much do the Wisconsin Badgers need to improve to get there?

Wisconsin plays its final preseason scrimmage tonight. In just five days, the Badgers take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Madison on Monday, November 6th, to start college basketball season. Be ready with the ultimate Wisconsin Badgers basketball season preview series from BadgerNotes:

• Day 10: Is Tyler Wahl a Top-10 Defender in Program History?
• Day 9: Badgers Face Early Test Against the #9 Ranked Tennessee Volunteers
• Day 8: Wisconsin Basketball Has One of the Most Challenging Schedules in the Country, Featuring Eight Ranked Matchups
• Day 7: 7 Games the Badgers Must Win to Get Back to the NCAA Tournament
• Day 6: Has Wisconsin Head Coach Greg Gard Fixed His Sixth Man Problem?

Wisconsin Basketball Picked to Finish in Crowded Fifth Place

In the preseason poll, the Purdue Boilermakers finished first, followed by the Michigan State Spartans in second, and the Maryland Terrapins in third. The gap in voting points between second and third place, however, was larger than the gap between third and sixth place. Following the Terrapins are the Illinois Fighting Illini, Wisconsin Badgers, and Indiana Hoosiers.

Oct 10, 2023; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Greg Gard speaks to the media during the Big Ten basketball media days at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

It is not only human polls that reflect this crowded tier behind the top two teams in the conference. KenPom projects Wisconsin to finish in a three-way tie for their with Illinois and Maryland at 12-8. BartTorvik projects an even more muddled second tier of the Big Ten. His projections have Illinois, Maryland, Wisconsin, the Indiana Hoosiers, the Northwestern Wildcats, and the Ohio State Buckeyes in a six-way tie for third all at 11-9.

Wisconsin Basketball Was Close to a Top Finish Last Season

The Big Ten always has a mushy middle in its conference standings. Just a two-win improvement last season, for example, would have jumped Wisconsin basketball from 11th to fourth place. Keep in mind that the Badgers lost four conference games decided by three points or fewer, and that jump does not seem far-fetched.

Feb 5, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Greg Gard looks on during the first half against the Northwestern Wildcats at the Kohl Center. Mandatory Credit: Kayla Wolf-USA TODAY Sports

In his tenure as head coach of the Badgers, Greg Gard has never lost double-digit conference games in back-to-back seasons. After finishing 7-11 and ninth place in the Big Ten in 2018, Wisconsin doubled its win total and finished fourth the following season. Following the 2021 season, in which UW went 10-10 and finished sixth in the conference, it finished 15-5 atop the standings in 2022.

How Can the Wisconsin Badgers Improve From Last Season’s 11th Place Finish?

Wisconsin has a simple recipe to finish in the top three or four of the conference standings: win key games against other members of the mushy middle. Plus, the Badgers get a favorable scheduling draw with these teams. Wisconsin plays Maryland, Illinois, and Northwestern only once each this season and hosts all three. Ohio State and Indiana are both home-and-home games for UW this season.

Beginning February 13th, Wisconsin basketball plays five games that will go a long way in deciding its fate in the conference standings. In that stretch, UW hosts Ohio State, travels to Iowa, hosts Maryland, plays on the road at Indiana, and hosts Illinois. Four of those five games are against “mushy middle teams.” As always, college basketball in Madison really heats up in February and early March.

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