Wisconsin Basketball Is in for a Battle vs. No. 9 Tennessee

Wisconsin Badgers Basketball had a great outing on Monday Night, if you missed it check out my Recap Post here. They have a much tougher test coming into the Kohl Center on Friday Night. The consensus #9 (AP + KenPom) Tennessee Volunteers!

This is going to be an early barometer of what Success can look like for this Wisconsin Basketball team. Stealing a win here would set us up with an early High Quad1 Win to pad our resume for March. But a loss, really doesn’t do anything to our resume (assuming it’s close).

So let’s dive into where my Model has us!

Tennessee 4-Factor Preview:

If you read my Recap Post of Arkansas State, you’ll know we look at 4-Factors when looking at the game. The model is fairly good as well:

The trick however is the predictive nature of the 4-Factor Model…

Will Wisconsin Basketball beat Tennessee?:

Based on my assumptions (with only 1 game I used some historical baselines to help fill in the blanks), UW has a SIGNIFICANT edge. With all of that coming through in FT Margin. I’m expecting a huge boost in production at the FT Line from Wisconsin.

I expect that to come with an increased FT Rate & FT%. But the majority of that is coming through FT Rate, which increased 25% vs. our 2022-2023 Season Average. Even seeing more moderate gains in that area should have a huge impact on our FT Margin, which was a significant struggle for us!

Outside of that, I think Tennessee will have the advantage. Particularly based on my DREB% Model. UW’s increased 2P% and relatively low 3PA Rate based on game one are really helping Tennessee’s projected DREB% and therefore their STOP FACTOR!

Final Thoughts on Wisconsin Basketball vs. Tennessee:

KenPom seems to think we have a fighting chance, projecting a VERY SLIM 70-69 Victory. If Wisconsin Basketball can shoot it anywhere near what the Badgers did on Monday, we’re going to be just fine.

A tall order against the #1 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Team in the Country (per KenPom). But they certainly allowed points to Michigan State, albeit in an exhibition game. But from the looks of it, both teams were playing really hard. So it bears questioning how defensive-oriented is THIS Tennessee team.

We know from past history it’s a good bet they’ll be stout defensively, but it’s time for Greg Gard and Company to put it to the test at the Kohl Center Friday Night!

On Wisconsin!

Thank you for taking time out of your busy day to read our work at BadgerNotes.com. For more Wisconsin Badgers Athletics and Big Ten content, follow us on Twitter & Facebook. You can also subscribe to our YouTube Channel. You can also follow me on Twitter @GardYourFickell

Also, be sure to check out our shop, subscribe to our newsletter, and the BadgerNotes After Dark podcast, which is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and all other streaming platforms. Because of your support, we have become one of the fastest-growing independent media outlets focused on giving a voice to the fans!