Wisconsin Basketball Final Bracketology Projection: Badgers One of 3 for 2 Spots

Wisconsin basketball will finally have its NCAA Tournament fate revealed today. The selection show begins shortly after the Badgers walk off the court in the Big Ten Tournament final. You can watch the full reveal of the 68-team bracket at 5:00 PM Central on CBS.

“Buckle up. This week may be a rollercoaster.” The last words of my previous bracketology update proved prophetic. After Chucky Hepburn willed UW past regular season conference champion Purdue, the Badgers snagged their best win of the season. That win has propelled Wisconsin up in the bracket.

Wisconsin Basketball NCAA Tournament Seeding: A Coin-Flip Proposition

Mar 17, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Greg Gard talks with the media during a practice day before the first round of the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Before conference tournament championship week started, Wisconsin was firmly a No. 6 seed. Bracketologists quickly bumped up the Badgers after they beat the Boilermakers in their semifinal. According to the composite projection at Bracket Matrix, Wisconsin basketball is the third of four No. 5 seeds. The space between the fives and sixes, however, is very slim.

By average seed ranking, the difference between the Badgers and the top No. 6, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, is three times closer than the difference between Texas Tech and the next closest six-seed. Frankly, I think there are two fives available for these three teams (ranked by their average seeding across all bracketologists): Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Texas Tech.

The five and six seeds in the NCAA Men’s basketball tournament, as projected at bracketmatrix.com—the number furthest to the right is the average seed projection for each team, taking all bracketologists’ predictions into account.

Will the Wisconsin Badgers Get a Five-Seed in March Madness?

Despite the close margin, I believe Wisconsin will make the five-line. Year over year, the selection committee has proved susceptible to some recency bias when evaluating the events of conference championship week. After getting the biggest resume win of the week among all at-large teams, Wisconsin basketball could benefit from that bias.

Wisconsin has outlasted Purdue in OT and is headed to the Big Ten title game!!

76-75 victory💪

Wisconsin -> 5 seed
Purdue -> 1 seed

— T3 Bracketology™️🏀 (@T3Bracketology) March 16, 2024

Other bracketology experts smarter than myself agree. T3Bracketology bumped Wisconsin to a five with the win over Purdue. The current Bracket Matrix bracketology champion, Bracket Dom, not only agrees with the Badgers as a five, but he already had them there before the victory on Saturday.

Championship Saturday is officially underway and we already have a handful of notable results! ✍️

Take a look at what happened in all the key games so far, as well as how they may affect the bracket. pic.twitter.com/lMoWVg0eXz

— Bracket Dom – Primetime Bracketology (@BracketDom) March 16, 2024

Today’s championship game will likely have little or no effect on Wisconsin’s seeding. Big Ten and SEC fans know the consideration, or lack thereof, that the selection committee gives to the Sunday power conference tournament title games. With the bracket reveal just moments after the buzzer sounds in Minneapolis today, there is little time for meaningful discussion of the final game before March Madness begins.

Simply put, enjoy today’s game; do not worry too much about a potential loss. Soon after it ends, regardless of who raises that trophy, you will have a bracket in your hand and a smile on your face.

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