Football

Analytics: Is This the Year Braelon Allen Wins the Doak Walker Award?

Can Braelon Allen win the Doak Walker Award in 2023?

Published

1 month ago

August 21, 2023

Wisconsin Football; Badgers RB Braelon Allen

Sep 3, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) rushes for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Illinois State Redbirds at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

I’m back with Part Seven of my Pre-Season Series: TOP 10 Wisconsin Football Stats you need to know for the 2023 Season! Following up my piece analyzing Tanner Mordecai’s Heisman chances this season. I promised you a follow-up in which I would analyze what Braelon Allen needs to accomplish to be in the Doak Walker Award conversation. Or you could call it the Wisconsin Badgers Running back Award, as one of our RBs has won the award four of the past 11 years, with Montee Ball in 2012, Melvin Gordon in 2014 & Jonathan Taylor going back to back in 2018 + 2019! Although Texas has “historically” and with Bijan Robinson’s latest win, tied UW with 5 Winners of the Award.

This post will take shape similar to the Tanner Mordecai piece, looking at the latest award winners and how he compares. But then we’ll look deeper at how things are shifting at Wisconsin under OC Phil Longo, matching the new age of CFB offenses. What will that mean for Braelon Allen? And what statistical measures should we be focused on if we’re to expect him to have a Doak Walker Award-Winning Season?

Let’s dive in!

What Is The STANDARD of a Doak Walker WINNING RB:

First, we’ll look at Stuff Rate, which is the single best measure of a RB, and how efficient they are at RUNNING the football! If you remember Part 4 of my series, I called out that Rushing YPA can actually skew how good a RB & the Running-Game is. This all has to do with the negative plays and how that impacts drives.

You can see here that (including Braelon), Doak Walker Award winners outside of Kenneth Walker simply don’t get stuffed. Now, Stuff Rate isn’t a 100% RB statistic. Many things can influence it, from O-Line play, and defensive Men-In-Box #’s. But to be a successful RB, you must identify the hole and ATTACK IT. Limiting plays where you’re hit and tackled behind the line.

Stuff Rate and Men-In-Box:

One thing that certainly helps and can get muddied in the overall data is how many defenders are in the box. What I like to call Light Boxes (6 Men or Less), can have a heavy influence. It certainly makes the O-Line’s job a lot easier. Let’s take a look at how that might give us even more insight into a RB’s performance:

Some very interesting insights came to me after analyzing this chart.

Braelon/JT/Blake Corum/AJ Dillion faced very few Light Boxes
1. Yet their Stuff Rates are INCREDIBLY LOW in comparison to this ELITE group of RBs
2. Is that O-Line Play? Partially…but it’s also great RB play!!!
Najee Harris/Bijan/Dobbins/Williams – all saw about 50% of their Runs vs. Light Boxes
1. OH, HOW BRAELON COULD DREAM – Or see this Fall as I’ve shared with you!
The farther Right and Up you go on this chart – the more unimpressed I am by these players
1. Lots of Light Boxes + High Stuff Rate = Really Poor O-Line or Poor RB

Will Phil Longo’s Brand of Wisconsin Football give Braelon Allen enough touches?

At B1G Media Days, Luke Fickell said he’d like to see Braelon Allen Average 18 for 140 (skip to 6:00 in) in 2023. This would imply, in a 14 Game Season, 252 ATTs. Is that enough touches? Well, if he gets 140 Yards on those touches, well, absolutely it will be. But let’s look at the lexicon on Doak Winners & Contenders and see where they roll-in in terms of Rush ATTs/G

Well…I’m not so sure 18 ATT/G will be enough for Braelon. We saw JT, Kenneth Walker, and Bijan Robinson get north of 20 Carries. However, it can be done with less. Just look at Najee Harris’ 2020 Season for Alabama. He was able to produce enough with only 19 ATT/G. But he didn’t do all of that damage that led him to a Doak Walker Award on the ground.

Dual-Threat RBs are the Future. Can Braelon Allen be One for Wisconsin Football Too?:

As you can see, Najee is near the bottom of this list. You can also see here that Bijan Robinson was “Below Average” in this group of talented RBs. And if you’re an avid College Football Fan, you know exactly where I’m going…They did their damage in a dual-threat capacity by being extremely useful in the receiving game as well!!!

Obviously, Kenneth Walker is the exception, but being in the outermost quadrants is where you’re going to have to be to win a Doak Walker Award for Best RB in CFB. So even if Braelon is only getting 18 Rushing ATTs, if he can supplement those lost carries with touches in the Passing Game. And if he is productive like Najee & Bijan, that may be his ticket to bringing the Doak Award Back to Wisconsin Football.

He’s shown progression over his two seasons with the Wisconsin football team, but I expect to see an even bigger jump with little to no losses in Rushing Yards Production.

The Recipe for Braelon Allen to Return the Doak Walker Award to Wisconsin Football:

I think we all have a general idea of what the recipe is. It’s one that allows Braelon Allen to play a Full Season at 100%! That’s first and foremost. With Phil Longo’s system and having Tanner Mordecai & a LOADED WR room, I believe he’ll see a massive flip in % of Light Boxes he’ll face this year. For some context, here is the analysis I’ve done in a previous post highlighting it:

Longo’s Scheme will make that a necessity for opposing defenses to lighten the box, and if they refuse. Mordecai & that WR room will have tons of space and even more space to pick those defenses apart!

Braelon Allen vs. Light Boxes:

You can see in Braelon’s 2022 Season he regressed quite substantially in Stuff Rate. Well, he also saw a significant amount more heavy boxes in 2022!!

Braelon 2021 | % Light Boxes = 30% – Stuff Rate = 12.97%

Braelon 2022 | % Light Boxes = 17% – Stuff Rate = 17.03%

I would hope we will see the % of Light Boxes flip completely on its head, mirroring what Longo has shown during his time at UNC. But that would honestly be a dumb move by opposing defenses. Just look at what Braelon did in 2021 from a YPA & Light Box %:

He was at 2018 JT level performance, just incredible stuff in his True Freshman season. Obviously, opposing defenses got A LOT smarter and loaded the box on him repeatedly. Also, an unfortunate reality was the UW Passing Game was far too inconsistent in 2022. So much so that the offense never achieved an appropriate balance to challenge that strategy. And we saw his YPA drop precipitously last season.

Final Thoughts on Braelon Allen and his chances to win the Doak Walker Award:

The Running Back role has changed and not only in the NFL but in College Football as well. You can see some of those changes in the charts I’ve just shared, particularly with two of the latest winners, Najee Harris and Bijan Robinson. Who saw a higher % of their Total Yards come through the Receiving game than past Winners, as you’ll see below:

So for Wisconsin football RB Braelon Allen to succeed, stay healthy, and ultimately put himself in a position to compete for the Doak Walker Award. I would love to see him get 18 Rush ATT/G & 2-4 Receptions/G. Getting to that 1,800-1,900 Total Yardage output would imply about 6.4 Yards/Touch.

But I will warn that implies a total of 294 touches. In two whole seasons, he’s touched the ball 437 times. In 2021 he had 194 total touches (186 Rush ATTs + 8 Receptions), and in 2022 he had 243 total touches (230 Rush ATTs + 13 Receptions). So he increased his touches by 25%, but to reach 294 touches, he’ll need to increase his workload another 21%!!!

Can he stay healthy while doing so?

Well, in my opinion, considering all of the factors we’ve just gone through (Light Box % + Receptions vs. Rushes). Increasing both of those (which will happen with Longo) will put a significanly lighter toll on his body. So no, I don’t think Braelon increasing his usage and putting up Najee Harris/Bijan Robinson-type numbers is even close to being outside a realistic scenario this season.

On Wisconsin!

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Wisconsin Football Suffers Pair of Crushing Injuries Ahead of the Season Opener

Football

The Implications of Chez Mellusi’s Injury for Wisconsin Football

Published

3 hours ago

September 25, 2023

Jake Maier

Wisconsin football; Badgers running back Chez Mellusi suffers devastating injury

Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Chez Mellusi (1) is taken off the field in a cart after suffering an injury during the second half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

The Wisconsin Badgers football program is heading into the bye week on a high note with a 38-17 win over Purdue. The Badgers showed some flashes of potential in their Big Ten opener, but the biggest storyline coming out of the game was the injury to Chez Mellusi.

The injury looked bad on replay, but the cart coming out for the former Clemson transfer, along with an air cast being placed on his leg, heightened fears for the worst. Ultimately, it was confirmed that Mellusi would miss the rest of the 2023 season with a fractured fibula.

Mellusi’s fracture marked his third significant injury during his tenure with the Badgers. He was named the starter in 2021 after transferring in from Clemson but ultimately suffered a season-ending ACL tear. He would return for his 2022 campaign but miss four games in the middle of the season due to a broken arm. Now, just four games into the season, Mellusi will miss the final eight games of the regular season.

Where Does Wisconsin Football Go From Here?

Without Mellusi, Wisconsin football will look to its young talent to replicate his production, which could be challenging. The fifth-year senior logged 51 carries for 307 yards and four touchdowns through four games. He also tacked on three receptions for 12 yards.

Mellusi did earn a bulk of the carries through four games, with Braleon Allen dinged up. Luckily, Allen looks to be back to his usual self, so they won’t need to rely on a younger back to take the majority of the carries. Still, the depth is a big question mark for Wisconsin’s running back room now.

Behind Allen, the Badgers have Jackson Acker, Cade Yacamelli, Grover Bortolotti, and Nate White to fill out the rotation.

Acker, a redshirt sophomore, has sparingly seen some time on the field as the RB3. The Madison native has appeared in three games thus far, logging eight carries for 31 yards as well as one reception for three yards. As the RB3, he’ll be expected to step up in the wake of Mellusi’s injury when Allen needs a breather.

Converted safety Cade Yacamelli will be the likely candidate to fill Acker’s shoes in the RB3 role. He hasn’t appeared in any offensive snaps thus far, but he has seen some time on the field with special teams. Reports out of spring and fall camp indicated that Yacamelli had something in the tank as a running back, but it remains to be seen in live game reps.

It’s not the best situation for Wisconsin to be in, but UW does have plenty of contributors at tailback who could take some snaps if need be. Although this situation is a tough one all around, there could be a bright spot.

Chez Mellusi Could Return to the Wisconsin Football Program in 2024

Since Mellusi sustained his injury during the fourth game of the season, Badgers fans shouldn’t rule out a sixth-year return from the standout tailback.

Although Mellusi didn’t see starter-level snaps during his time with Clemson, he never used a redshirt year. Plus, his sophomore season was impacted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, giving him another year of eligibility.

So, the choice for Mellusi comes down to focusing on his health and looking to sign with an NFL team as a UDFA or moving on to the next phase of his life outside of football. On the other hand, he could return for a sixth year to boost his draft stock. It certainly wouldn’t hurt the Wisconsin Badgers, who is looking at Allen potentially heading to the NFL draft after the season and having an influx of young running backs coming into the fold, such as Darrion Dupree, Dilin Jones, and Gideon Ituka.

Although Mellusi’s injury is devastating for a number of reasons, there is a small bright spot in that we could see him don the cardinal and white one more time.

Wisconsin football is now headed into the bye week starting 3-1 on the season. They’ll take on Rutgers on October 7th in Madison as both teams look to improve to 4-1.

Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here. Also, like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin football news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Jake Maier on Twitter @JakeJMaier.

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Football

Wisconsin Football Defensive Snap Counts & PFF Grades vs. Purdue

Published

6 hours ago

September 25, 2023

Dillon Graff

Wisconsin football; Badgers defensive end James Thompson Jr.

Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers defensive end James Thompson Jr. (90) celebrates after sacking Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Hudson Card (1) during the first half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

Luke Fickell and the Wisconsin Badgers football team (3-1, 1-0 B1G) kicked off Big Ten play with a 38-17 victory over Ryan Walters and the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium on Friday night.

In this post-game recap, we dissect the performance of the Wisconsin Badgers by analyzing their snap counts and Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades for each position group — and include a few stats that help add context to the ole eye test.

By analyzing these metrics, we can gain a clearer insight into the individual contributions of each unit to the team’s overall performance. While you can’t take these figures as gospel, this allows us to identify strengths, key contributors, and areas where Wisconsin football excelled.

Let’s dive in.

Wisconsin Football Defensive Snap Counts & PFF Grades

Purdue Boilermakers wide receiver TJ Sheffield (8) is tackled by a group of Wisconsin Badgers players during the NCAA football game, Friday, Sept. 22, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Wisconsin Badgers won 38-17.

Defensive Line:

Rodas Johnson – Snap Count: [36] – PFF Grade: [47.4]

James Thomspon – Snap Count: [35] – PFF Grade: [64.6]

Darian Varner – Snap Count: [15] – PFF Grade: [62.1]

***

Gio Paez – Snap Count: [23] – PFF Grade: [44.1]

Curt Neal – Snap Count: [19] – PFF Grade: [49.0]

Ben Barten – Snap Count: [16] – PFF Grade: [59.4]

Inside Linebackers:

Jake Chaney – Snap Count: [71] – PFF Grade: [61.2]

Jordan Turner – Snap Count: [70] – PFF Grade: [48.8]

*Maema Njongmeta – Snap Count: [1?] – PFF Grade: [N/A]

Outside Linebackers:

C.J. Goetz – Snap Count: [53] – PFF Grade: [55.0]

Darryl Peterson – Snap Count: [45] – PFF Grade: [56.6]

Jeff Pietrowski – Snap Count: [14] – PFF Grade: [55.6]

Kaden Johnson – Snap Count: [5] – PFF Grade: [79.1]

Cornerbacks:

Ricardo Hallman – Snap Count: [71] – PFF Grade: [69.2]

Jason Maitre – Snap Count: [69] – PFF Grade: [58.2]

Alexander Smith – Snap Count: [50] – PFF Grade: [74.9]

Nyzier Fourqurean – Snap Count: [21] – PFF Grade: [56.0]

Safeties:

Hunter Wohler – Snap Count: [71] – PFF Grade: [71.6]

Kamo’i Latu – Snap Count: [36] – PFF Grade: [59.7]

Preston Zachman – Snap Count: [61] – PFF Grade: [53.6]

Defensive Analysis:

The most peculiar thing about Wisconsin football beating Purdue on Friday night was senior inside linebacker Maema Njongmeta essentially not playing at all. Full disclosure: I didn’t notice it until somebody pointed it out — but he appeared to see the field for one snap on fourth down late in the game. Luke Fickell said he was available — and I have a hard time believing something more isn’t going on here — but I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

The safety rotation was also somewhat bizarre to me for several reasons: Travian Blaylock sat in favor of a heavy dosage of Preston Zachman. I was also disappointed that Austin Brown couldn’t build off a strong performance against Georgia Southern.

I don’t need to get super in-depth on this one, but the defensive front seven was BAD. James Thompson Jr. is quickly becoming a stud on the defensive line — but other than him — there weren’t any individual performances to write home about. Nobody on the Wisconsin football defense registered more than two pressures on the night, and the Badgers finished with 16 total.

Lastly, a Wisconsin Badgers defense that’s struggled with giving up chunk plays all season (bottom third in the NCAA) also has a huge tackling issue — and was credited with 16 missed tackles as a team. This Wisconsin football defense isn’t talented enough to overcome these sloppy mistakes and is a clear point of emphasis to clean up during the bye week.

Wisconsin Football Offensive Snap Counts & PFF Grades vs. Purdue

Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers football news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Dillon Graff on Twitter @DillonGraff.

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Join the Badger Notes watch party and stream Wisconsin Badgers games by following this link.

*Subscribe to BadgerNotes After Dark on Youtube and wherever you find podcasts, the official Wisconsin Badgers podcast of the Big Banter Sports Network.

Football

Wisconsin Football Falls Outside the Top 25 in Week 4 SP+ Rankings

Published

9 hours ago

September 25, 2023

Dillon Graff

Wisconsin football; Badgers head coach Luke Fickell

Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell look on prior to the start of the game at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

On Friday night, Wisconsin Football laid down a 21-point victory in their Big Ten Conference opener against Purdue; now, the Badgers sit outside the top 25 in the AP polls with a 3-1 record (1-0 Big Ten) heading into a Week 5 bye before taking on Rutgers.

The ESPN SP+ rankings were updated following the Week 4 slate, and the Cardinal and White slipped in the latest polls despite their 38-17 triumph over the Boilermakers.

Wisconsin Football Falls Outside the Top 25 in Updated SP+ Rankings

For anyone unfamiliar with the ESPN SP+ model, it’s not your father’s associated press top 25 poll. It’s a forward-facing, Predictive model that serves as a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency.

With that out of the way, the Week 4 SP+ rankings currently have Wisconsin football as the No. 27 team in the country — down two spots from last week. According to the metric, the Badgers have an overall grade of 13.2, with the No. 39 offense, No. 18 defense, and No. 4 special teams unit.

Other notable Big Ten programs in the SP+ top 10 include Michigan (1), Ohio State (3), and Penn State (10).

When the Badgers come out of the bye week, Wisconsin football begins a tough stretch of games against Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State. Let’s hope the coaching staff can make necessary defensive adjustments, clean up the penalties on offense, and work in the younger running backs who must fill the No. 2 role after losing Chez Mellusi for the season.