Analytics: Is This the Year Braelon Allen Wins the Doak Walker Award?

I’m back with Part Seven of my Pre-Season Series: TOP 10 Wisconsin Football Stats you need to know for the 2023 Season! Following up my piece analyzing Tanner Mordecai’s Heisman chances this season. I promised you a follow-up in which I would analyze what Braelon Allen needs to accomplish to be in the Doak Walker Award conversation. Or you could call it the Wisconsin Badgers Running back Award, as one of our RBs has won the award four of the past 11 years, with Montee Ball in 2012, Melvin Gordon in 2014 & Jonathan Taylor going back to back in 2018 + 2019! Although Texas has “historically” and with Bijan Robinson’s latest win, tied UW with 5 Winners of the Award.

For Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3  | Part 4 | Part 5 | Part 6

This post will take shape similar to the Tanner Mordecai piece, looking at the latest award winners and how he compares. But then we’ll look deeper at how things are shifting at Wisconsin under OC Phil Longo, matching the new age of CFB offenses. What will that mean for Braelon Allen? And what statistical measures should we be focused on if we’re to expect him to have a Doak Walker Award-Winning Season?

Let’s dive in!

What Is The STANDARD of a Doak Walker WINNING RB:

First, we’ll look at Stuff Rate, which is the single best measure of a RB, and how efficient they are at RUNNING the football! If you remember Part 4 of my series, I called out that Rushing YPA can actually skew how good a RB & the Running-Game is. This all has to do with the negative plays and how that impacts drives.

You can see here that (including Braelon), Doak Walker Award winners outside of Kenneth Walker simply don’t get stuffed. Now, Stuff Rate isn’t a 100% RB statistic. Many things can influence it, from O-Line play, and defensive Men-In-Box #’s. But to be a successful RB, you must identify the hole and ATTACK IT. Limiting plays where you’re hit and tackled behind the line.

Stuff Rate and Men-In-Box:

One thing that certainly helps and can get muddied in the overall data is how many defenders are in the box. What I like to call Light Boxes (6 Men or Less), can have a heavy influence. It certainly makes the O-Line’s job a lot easier. Let’s take a look at how that might give us even more insight into a RB’s performance:

Some very interesting insights came to me after analyzing this chart.

1. Braelon/JT/Blake Corum/AJ Dillion faced very few Light Boxes
   1. Yet their Stuff Rates are INCREDIBLY LOW in comparison to this ELITE group of RBs
   2. Is that O-Line Play? Partially…but it’s also great RB play!!!
2. Najee Harris/Bijan/Dobbins/Williams – all saw about 50% of their Runs vs. Light Boxes
   1. OH, HOW BRAELON COULD DREAM – Or see this Fall as I’ve shared with you!
3. The farther Right and Up you go on this chart – the more unimpressed I am by these players
   1. Lots of Light Boxes + High Stuff Rate = Really Poor O-Line or Poor RB

Will Phil Longo’s Brand of Wisconsin Football give Braelon Allen enough touches?

At B1G Media Days, Luke Fickell said he’d like to see Braelon Allen Average 18 for 140 (skip to 6:00 in) in 2023. This would imply, in a 14 Game Season, 252 ATTs. Is that enough touches? Well, if he gets 140 Yards on those touches, well, absolutely it will be. But let’s look at the lexicon on Doak Winners & Contenders and see where they roll-in in terms of Rush ATTs/G

Well…I’m not so sure 18 ATT/G will be enough for Braelon. We saw JT, Kenneth Walker, and Bijan Robinson get north of 20 Carries. However, it can be done with less. Just look at Najee Harris’ 2020 Season for Alabama. He was able to produce enough with only 19 ATT/G. But he didn’t do all of that damage that led him to a Doak Walker Award on the ground.

Dual-Threat RBs are the Future. Can Braelon Allen be One for Wisconsin Football Too?:

As you can see, Najee is near the bottom of this list. You can also see here that Bijan Robinson was “Below Average” in this group of talented RBs. And if you’re an avid College Football Fan, you know exactly where I’m going…They did their damage in a dual-threat capacity by being extremely useful in the receiving game as well!!!

Obviously, Kenneth Walker is the exception, but being in the outermost quadrants is where you’re going to have to be to win a Doak Walker Award for Best RB in CFB. So even if Braelon is only getting 18 Rushing ATTs, if he can supplement those lost carries with touches in the Passing Game. And if he is productive like Najee & Bijan, that may be his ticket to bringing the Doak Award Back to Wisconsin Football.

He’s shown progression over his two seasons with the Wisconsin football team, but I expect to see an even bigger jump with little to no losses in Rushing Yards Production.

The Recipe for Braelon Allen to Return the Doak Walker Award to Wisconsin Football:

I think we all have a general idea of what the recipe is. It’s one that allows Braelon Allen to play a Full Season at 100%! That’s first and foremost. With Phil Longo’s system and having Tanner Mordecai & a LOADED WR room, I believe he’ll see a massive flip in % of Light Boxes he’ll face this year. For some context, here is the analysis I’ve done in a previous post highlighting it:

Longo’s Scheme will make that a necessity for opposing defenses to lighten the box, and if they refuse. Mordecai & that WR room will have tons of space and even more space to pick those defenses apart!

Braelon Allen vs. Light Boxes:

You can see in Braelon’s 2022 Season he regressed quite substantially in Stuff Rate. Well, he also saw a significant amount more heavy boxes in 2022!!

1. Braelon 2021 | % Light Boxes = 30% – Stuff Rate = 12.97%
2. Braelon 2022 | % Light Boxes = 17% – Stuff Rate = 17.03%

I would hope we will see the % of Light Boxes flip completely on its head, mirroring what Longo has shown during his time at UNC. But that would honestly be a dumb move by opposing defenses. Just look at what Braelon did in 2021 from a YPA & Light Box %:

He was at 2018 JT level performance, just incredible stuff in his True Freshman season. Obviously, opposing defenses got A LOT smarter and loaded the box on him repeatedly. Also, an unfortunate reality was the UW Passing Game was far too inconsistent in 2022. So much so that the offense never achieved an appropriate balance to challenge that strategy. And we saw his YPA drop precipitously last season.

Final Thoughts on Braelon Allen and his chances to win the Doak Walker Award:

The Running Back role has changed and not only in the NFL but in College Football as well. You can see some of those changes in the charts I’ve just shared, particularly with two of the latest winners, Najee Harris and Bijan Robinson. Who saw a higher % of their Total Yards come through the Receiving game than past Winners, as you’ll see below:

So for Wisconsin football RB Braelon Allen to succeed, stay healthy, and ultimately put himself in a position to compete for the Doak Walker Award. I would love to see him get 18 Rush ATT/G & 2-4 Receptions/G. Getting to that 1,800-1,900 Total Yardage output would imply about 6.4 Yards/Touch.

But I will warn that implies a total of 294 touches. In two whole seasons, he’s touched the ball 437 times. In 2021 he had 194 total touches (186 Rush ATTs + 8 Receptions), and in 2022 he had 243 total touches (230 Rush ATTs + 13 Receptions). So he increased his touches by 25%, but to reach 294 touches, he’ll need to increase his workload another 21%!!!

Can he stay healthy while doing so?

Well, in my opinion, considering all of the factors we’ve just gone through (Light Box % + Receptions vs. Rushes). Increasing both of those (which will happen with Longo) will put a significanly lighter toll on his body. So no, I don’t think Braelon increasing his usage and putting up Najee Harris/Bijan Robinson-type numbers is even close to being outside a realistic scenario this season.

On Wisconsin!

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