Wisconsin Basketball to Get Back on Track vs. Robert Morris

Things don’t look great for the Wisconsin Badgers basketball program right now, coming of back-back losses in Non-Conference for the first time since 2019-2020, where we lost 3 straight vs. Richmond, New Mexico, and North Carolina State. Unfortunately, we don’t have a Michah Potter waiting in the wings (NCAA is still wild for making him sit that Semester) to save us from a 5-5 Start.

But I could argue that the new pieces (Storr/Blackwell/Winter) will take 5-10 games to settle into their roles and get a feel for High-Level basketball. It’ll be a baptism by fire so to speak, with 6 of our first 10 games vs. Top-68 KenPom Teams.

I would say Top-50, but Providence was 57 when we played them (Now #47). Once we get through that stretch, I hope, but I really believe those 3 will be battle-tested enough to compete in the B1G right away. And boy do we need all of their abilities as well as the depth they provide. However, Winter hasn’t cracked 15 Minutes in any outing so far this year, mainly because his defense has struggled, especially in the P&R Coverages once he figures that out, which will only come with more reps and learning, will he get the minutes necessary to sustain some offensive output.

Okay, enough rambling….let’s get into the Analytics & Prediction Model!!!

Robert Morris Predicted 4-Factors:

1. NoT eFG%: 35%
2. DREB%: 74%
3. OREB%: 21%
4. FTAR: 31%

Wisconsin Basketball Predicted 4-Factors:

1. NoT eFG%: 43%
2. DREB%: 79%
3. OREB%: 26%
4. FTAR: 36%

Will Wisconsin Basketball beat Robert Morris?:

Based on my Model, it should be a relative blowout for the Wisconsin Badgers with a ~11 11-point victory as the projection. KenPom is a bit more aggressive, projecting an 83-61 victory (+22 Points). Although I would love to share that optimism, I’m not sold we’ll be able to buck what Providence and Tennessee have both exposed of our offense.

We are scared of pressure and physicality! Like really scared. Now unfortunately for Robert Morris, they aren’t going to intimidate UW. They just don’t have the size and strength to do so, with their tallest player coming in at 6-9 215 and a True Freshman it ain’t going to cut it. If Tyler Wahl & Steven Crowl can’t feast tonight, we’ve got some serious problems! If we see any outperformance It’ll be in NoT eFG% Margin & OPP STOP FACTOR moving in UW’s Direction. So in a sense, that 10.91 Prediction should be looked at as more of a floor than anything.

Wisconsin Basketball STOP FACTOR:

Wisconsin basketball should have an easy road ahead of them Friday Night! With Robert Morris really struggling from 2P% heavily impacting their eFG%, and what I can imagine is going to be a very determined UW Defense keeping them out of easy paint touches. They are going to STRUGGLE to score the ball.

And to add insult to injury they are going to have an even tougher time getting Offensive Rebounds. With a projected -13% reduction based on Robert Morris’ OREB ability, I would surmise it’s going to fall short based on the Badgers’ size advantage. Couple those two together and you get a really strong projection in STOP FACTOR for Wisconsin Basketball at 1.89!!

Robert Morris STOP FACTOR:

The opposite will be true for Robert Morris as they face this Badgers offense. Although we’ve struggled vs. Tennesee (2H) and Providence (1H) our eFG% is still afloat based on our performance vs. Arkansas State.

Coupling that with a rather frisky OREB team Gard has assembled. It’s the highest OREB team since 2017, where they grabbed 35.8% of OREB Opportunities! And you’ll see a rather low projected STOP FACTOR for Robert Morris at 1.45!

Three Kyes for Wisconsin Badgers Basketball vs. Robert Morris:

• LIMIT JUSTICE WILLIAMS
  • Justice Williams is the engine for Robert Morris:
    • 32.5% USG RATE | 28.8% AST RATE | 37.9% FTA Rate
    • Personal Foul Efficiency = 2.00X (95th Percentile)

His M.O. is to get downhill and attack the rim looking to finish or get fouled. If that’s not there, he’ll look for dish opportunities for his teammates. On the defensive end he’s going to get up in your grill without fouling. He gets about 2 times the amount of Steals + Blocks to his Personal Fouls! If he’s able to set the tone early for Robert Morris, they could keep it interesting far longer than we might like!

• FEED STEVEN CROWL
  • In Quad 3 & 4 Games last year, Steven Crowl’s Shooting looked like this:

These are absurdly good #’s… Rim & 3 PPS of 2.16 & 2.03 is like Frank Kaminsky-level good. But therein lies the problem, he only puts these numbers up vs. Lower-Level Competition. Here’s what it looked like vs. Quad 1 & Quad 2 opponents last Season:

Still, really strong “At-Rim” Production, but his “Paint” production (In-Paint >4.5FT) went down dramatically from ~1.27 PPS → ~0.88 PPS. Even worse was how his 3P Shooting fared, moving from 1.95 PPS → 0.55 PPS! The level of competition for him does not increase this much, which signals to me he’s got a huge confidence issue. If scoring 36 vs. Bradley wasn’t enough to spark his confidence, maybe another 30+ Point Outing will. If we’re going to make the run we hope to this season, Steven Crowl has to be a big part of it.

Let’s get him going early and often!!!

• CHUCKY NEEDS TO BE ASSERTIVE!

I’d like Chucky to be more assertive early in this game, I think when he gets his confidence going he pushes the tempo which helps us start the Offense vs. a more scattered defense. This helps us get deeper post position early in the shot clock, which we work best out of. If the defense can get set and extend pressure, we really haven’t handled that well so far.

Another added benefit is it can also put Storr in easier and smoother opportunities to get going early. As opposed to what feels like some forced action by him at the beginning of games through the first three games!

On Wisconsin!

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