Wisconsin Football Losing to Indiana Isn’t Cause for Panic

I think Saturday was confirmation bias fodder for many who believe this staff isn’t the Wisconsin Football Program’s saving grace…

I disagree.

While this Program feels as though its as far away from Week 12 2017 on the brink of a CFP berth, I’m here to tell you we’re not that far off. The loss to Indiana is inexcusable, I don’t think it’s on the Staff.

Injuries at Key Offensive positions can’t be excluded from the calculus. Yet some are…

But there are far deeper structural issues I’ve come to notice, not just from those injuries but from our roster construction as a whole. And it comes on both sides of the Football. Recruiting will be a MUST for Fickell and Company to get this thing to where they want it.

This requires something most fans currently don’t have…

Patience.

With that let’s dive into the Game!

The “Run the Ball Crowd”…Is Right!!:

There has been a distinct shift in our Play-Calling tendencies, and the Success has been spiraling downwards! We’ve been trying to establish the Passing Game first before the Run Game.

It’s hard to do when your Success Rate, on 1st Down Passing is 9%.

That has led to us being behind the chains far too often, with those shifts and the lack of success early. It’s pushed us into Passing on 2nd Down far too often. Vs. Iowa, Ohio State & Indiana our 2nd Down Run Rate was far below our Season Average.

This can’t happen especially when our Success Rate (“SR”), is 9% lower on Passes on 2nd Down over the season!

The story is clear, we are far more successful when we can commit to establishing the run.

What’s also interesting that I’ve observed is the PA/RPO Pass game has receded from the game plan quite largely.

This over-reliance on the Straight DB passing game is certainly a “choice” for Longo, considering that’s putting a ton of weight on RS-FR Braedyn Locke’s shoulders.

Not quite sure that’s fair.

Wisconsin Football and Phil Longo need more Production out of the TEs:

Longo loves to utilize the TEs in the Passing-Game. He used them increasingly throughout his tenure at UNC. And that has…fallen off a cliff.

Part of that is the 247 Composite is well below where it needs to be.

I gave Riley Nowakowski a .8000 Grade which is rather generous given the fact that he received an N/A grade from 247 Sports coming out of HS. Needless to say, Jack Pugh and Grant Stec can’t get into the thick of things soon enough!!

Final Thoughts on Wisconsin Football and their Loss vs. Indiana:

• Third Down & Distance seems to be Make or Break:

63% of our 3rd Downs >7 Yards to go…is NOT a recipe for success

Forcing 10 Straight DBs to Pass where the Defense can pin their ears back and get after a young QB. This leads to some less-than-ideal results!!!

We’ve been very successful in 3rd & Short situations, and 3rd & Medium as well. But the 3rd & Longs are absolutely KILLING US as an offense! Especially with a Young QB.

I think for Longo the idea has to be if we don’t execute on 1st Down, let’s just dial up a run. That way, we can possibly get into 3rd and Medium by picking up 4 yards. It goes heavily against our recent tendencies and should generate some short-term success.

It should also help when we dial up some PA/RPOs on 2nd Down as we see some heavy boxes Pre/Post Snap!

• Our Inside LBs looked much MUCH better:

Jake Chaney & Jordan Turner both had RDEF Grades per PFF of 80+. With Chaney coming in at the Team Lead of 88.9! Maema, came in at 64.1, with his 1 Missed Tackle really hurting his Grade given his limited work. So overall between the 3 of those players who had really struggled this year, they’re all coming into their own. Understanding their reads and really filling those gaps better.

• Pass Blocking Improved DRAMATICALLY:

Obviously, the two critical Sacks seem to be overshadowing a really great performance from the O-Line. Those sacks were really the only pressures that “matter” were given up all game.

Now, some could put some honus on the O-Line for the tipped passes. In my opinion those are all on Locke, he needs to change his arm angles to fit those passes into tight windows. It’s a learning experience for the young QB.

This Season isn’t what we all thought or hoped it would be for Wisconsin Football. Injuries and a Roster that WASN’T what we thought it was severely impacting that. Especially for our Offense. Defensively, we’re fine obviously some big plays given up on 3rd and Long situations sour that taste. But IU really did a whole lot of nothing all game.

If we can start to eliminate those big plays defensively, those back breaking plays on 3rd Down or in the wrong situation we’ll be just fine and get through this final 3 Game stretch!

The offense, I hate to say it as many have been clamoring for Locke as “the guy” after his outing vs. Illinois. It’d be really nice to get Mordecai back for the Nebraska and Minnesota games.

Because we really need an experienced QB vs. two programs that have some talent and in Nebraska’s case, a very competent Head Coach. If he’s available, I think Fickell owes it to Mordecai (who likely isn’t going to the NFL), the Team (who deserves the best shot at a win), and the fans (who also deserve the best shot at wins).

On Wisconsin!

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