Wisconsin Football Analytics: Evaluating Top Transfer QB Targets

Badgers Fans…I hat to break it to you but getting Cam Ward is a pipe dream for Wisconsin Football, but say we do land Cam Ward…just know he’s as good or better in every one of these categories I’m about to dive into. So yes, it’ll be good if we get him!! But no we probably won’t, so let’s take a look at who we actually can get.

In the last few days, we’ve seen reports of DeQuan Finn & Tyler Van Dyke being connected to the Wisconsin Football Team as ‘Transfer Portal’ Targets. But which do we or should we prefer of the two?

I’ll take you through the analytics informing my position and give you my take. With that…Let’s Dive In!

Coverages Coverages Coverages:

When I’m looking at a QB Target and thinking of how they’ll fit in at Wisconsin, they have to be successful vs. Cover 0/1. Teams have and are going to continue to load the box against us, forcing us to beat them over the top!

We faced Cover 0/1 nearly 50% of the time in 2023! Even with 85% Plus of our Personnel Groupings out of 11 Personnel (1RB 1TE). They know the way to slow us down is to stop the run, and force us to beat them over the top.

How Does Van Dyke & Finn Handle Cover 0/1? And for that matter, let’s look at how they fared vs. Cover 3 as well. Cover 3 is what made up another 25% of Coverage we faced in 2023. Collectively, Cover 0/1/3 was nearly 3/4 of all Coverages we saw in 2023

How I’m judging them is by looking at a new stat. I’m calling it “Passing Composite”

Passing Composite = On-TGT% * Intended Air Yards/ATT

The idea here is that the combination of these two factors is going to be pretty highly correlated to YPA. Which IS the QB Efficiency Metric. But from the data I’ve seen, Passing Composite is quite a bit more durable in terms of its correlation (predictability) Season-Season.

Which makes sense. All it’s doing is judging how well a QB puts the ball on your receivers and how well they do that in relation to the depth of those throws.

Let’s try to contextualize it a little better:

QB #1: AY/A = 7.5 | On-TGT % = 80% | Passing Composite = 6.0

QB #2: AY/A = 8.5 | On-TGT % = 75% | Passing Composite = 6.38

QB #3: AY/A = 10.5 | On-TGT % = 62.5% | Passing Composite = 6.56

It might not be intuitive to go for QB #3, who may be seen as much more of a gunslinger who is wildly inaccurate. But given how aggressive he is in pushing the ball down the field and his relative accuracy in doing so. You should see his YPA outperform QB #1 & QB #2. There’s obviously a risk to having 37.5% of your passes “Off-Target”…that’s where INTs & INT Rate come into play. So we’ll take that into account as well!

Cover 0/1:

You can see here that DeQuan Finn, has been a bit better in terms of Passing Composite vs. Cover 0/1.

Now, there’s a lot of noise in looking at this data, this isn’t an exact science. BUT…it’s one of the best I’ve seen. And it’s also one you can easily wrap your head around and say, “yeah that makes sense”…as a solid Factor for predicting of QB Success.

Now let’s look at INT Rate:

Again, there’s a risk in pushing the ball far downfield!

Finn has succumbed to that a bit, seeing an uptick in his INT Rate vs. Cover 0/1 in 2022 & 2023. But given a fairly high Passing Composite, that’s not too big of a concern for me. And when you put into context that Van Dyke has had similar INT Rates with Higher & Lower Passing Composites. It’s not a knock on him…at all!

Cover 3:

Tough to see here but both Van Dyke had down years vs. Cover 3 in 2022. But, really, the outlier here was how well Finn performed in 2023 vs. Cover 3 Coverages from a Passing Composite standpoint.

He pushed the ball downfield very aggressively and was On-Target! It showed, as he had nearly 10 Yards/Attempt vs. Cover 3 in 2023!

Again, pushing the ball downfield only means so much if you’re going to give it to the opposing team at a high rate while doing so.

That’s an area Van Dyke really struggled with vs. Cover 3 Coverages, but he also really struggled vs. 2-High Safety looks as well. Where he had nearly a 15% INT Rate vs. Cover 2 Coverages!

So, while Finn has seen +2% INT Rates, I love the fact that both his Cover 0/1 & Cover 3 INT Rates went down from 2022 –> 2023 with Higher Passing Composites. That shows growth and maturity from DeQuan, in being more aggressive but knowing where to pick his spots a bit better. This is exactly what Wisconsin football needs in 2024 from our QB!

A Wisconsin Football QB Who Can Use His Legs?:

One of the bright spots from an otherwise underwhelming Season from Tanner Mordecai, was how he utilized his legs to not only extend plays. But also to be utilized in the QB Design Run Game. While Tanner was primarily used in the Designed QB Run-Game with QB Draws, he kept a ton on the Zone-Read vs. Purdue. Wish we could have seen more of that, and how that could have squeezed a bit more efficiency out of the Run-Game, especially on 1st Down as well as 3rd & Short.

But as you’ll see, DeQuan Finn is on a completely different level when looking at what I call the “QB Rushing Efficient Frontier”.

What the QB Rushing Efficient Frontier essentially tries to look at is Yards/ATT AND Yards/Game.

Essentially, asking the question, “Can you be productive in the QB Run-Game on high volume?”. Let me tell you Dequan Finn can be! Tyler Van Dyke, might have that potential actually. But he certainly hasn’t done it on high volume.

Designed QB RUNS:

As you can see, Dequan Finn is well above the rough Efficient Frontier drawn here, which compares Van Dyke, Mordecai & Finn. He is able to maintain much higher YPAs on QB Designed Runs, and given how much excess YPG on the ground he’s getting, he can do it on high volume as well.

Something Van Dyke has not shown but was also never really asked to do! It’s a big question mark surrounding Van Dyke.

How Can Each Potential Wisconsin Football QB Handle Pressure?:

I like to think of these last stats as the “Cherry On-Top”.

In modern college football, as a quarterback, you need to be able to throw the ball well. You also, more than ever, need to have some impact in the Designed QB Run-Game. Whether that be in Zone-Reads/RPOs/QB Draws, you have to be able to make the defense account for YOU.

If they don’t have to, it puts a lot more honus on the O-Line/H-Back/TE  to execute that much more. So if you don’t have those two skills as a QB, you’re not going to be a game-changing QB and you best have a really good group of teammates around you to cover up the issues that’ll cause.

But at some level, there are going to be plays where things break down. How you handle those situations as a QB is critical. Those are going to be the plays where you’re going to make mistakes: Interceptions, Fubmbles, Intentional Grounding. Huge EPA losing plays that have to be avoided.

DeQuan Finn outperforms Van Dyke MASSIVELY!

Finn saw an insane amount of pressure over his time at Toledo. And he lowered his Sack-Pressure Ratio (QB Elusiveness) every…single…season! He might not know what to do with all the time he has behind a Wisconsin football O-Line who, for all its criticism, actually kept the QB quite clean in 2023!

Not to make this a Finn Fest, Van Dyke has also improved his elusiveness/craftiness over his career. As he too, lowered his Sack-Pressure Ratio every single season.

But it’s not just about avoiding sacks, albeit that is hyper-critical. A broader examination of handling pressure is can you turn lemons into lemonade?

QB Scrambles:

When looking at QB Scrambles, it definitely begins to paint a prettier picture for Van Dyke, who shows he can be capable of picking up some yards on Scramble opportunities. That, coupled with his Sack-Pressure Ratio, makes me a bit less concerned with his mobility. But will he be able to return to his 2021 level of Scrambling Output with his 2023 “Craftiness” in the pocket? He’s dealt with injuries for much of the last two seasons, which makes me cautious.

All that to say, his output from a mobility standpoint isn’t anywhere CLOSE to what DeQuan Finn is producing. And it’s on every level, Sack-Pressure Ratio, Yards/Att, and Yards/Game. He’s making teams pay for poor rush lanes or dropping too many into coverage! And there’s a massive difference in Net/Incremental EPA of lowering your Sack Rates, while simultaneously GAINING yards in those “Pressure” situations vs. the Average QB. Or in this case Finn vs. Van Dyke.

Total QB Rushing:

And so, when you look at the QB Rushing Frontier over their entire careers, DeQuan Finn is beyond a doubt one of the more valuable QBs in the country in terms of the benefit he adds using his legs.

We’ll also see it in the Read-Option game which is something you can’t exactly quantify but is, without a doubt, the aspect I’m most excited about from us potentially picking up DeQuan Finn. Making those Backside DEs/LBs/Safetys stay out of position and having to key on an extra runner will have fantastic benefits for a RB Room that’s going to be quite inexperienced in 2024! Relieving that pressure is going to gain us some incremental YPA in their performance as well by simply being a threat!

Who should Wisconsin Football Prioritize in the QB Portal?:

It’s easy. DeQuan Finn.

While I don’t want this to sound like I wouldn’t want Tyler Van Dyke or that I would be upset about that. I’d just much rather have DeQuan Finn. I think he’s equally as good now. If not, I believe he projects to be BETTER in moving to Wisconsin. Whereas with Van Dyke he is going to take a big step back in WR Talent coming to Wisconsin, barring any future transfers.

Couple that fact with how dynamic DeQuan Finn is at using his feet along with his arm to defeat defenses. The choice is simple for Fickell & Longo.

Do whatever it takes to get DeQuan Finn on campus. He gives us exactly what we need from our QB in 2024. If he signs, you can reignite the hype train for this upcoming Season. If it’s Van Dyke, I’m quite cautiously optimistic. Optimistic, but I’ll need to see it before I believe in it.

So I’m hoping Wisconsin football gets Finn, and no late suitors are trying to get the 2nd Best Dual-Threat QB in the Portal onto their Roster come Winter Workouts.

On Wisconsin!

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