Will Wisconsin Basketball Beat Virginia? – Analytics Preview

Things are off to a rocky start for Wisconsin Basketball right now. A 2-2 start isn’t what many expected, but given Providence was a bit tougher matchup than most had expected, it shouldn’t have been out of the question.

As I’ve said for our new additions (AJ Storr/John Blackwell/Nolan Winter), it will take 5-10 games for them to settle into their roles and get a feel for High-Level basketball. With our 3rd of 6 games vs. Top-68 KenPom Teams coming vs. Virginia, we’re going to get another look at how that development is going!

Let’s get into the Analytics & Prediction Model.

Virginia Predicted 4-Factors:

1. NoT eFG%: 46.81%
2. DREB%: 75%
3. OREB%: 24%
4. FTAR: 47.6%

Wisconsin Basketball Predicted 4-Factors:

1. NoT eFG%: 43.82%
2. DREB%: 76%
3. OREB%: 25%
4. FTAR: 46.1%

Will Wisconsin Basketball beat Virginia?:

Based on my Model, no Wisconsin will not win in fact we should expect a 2-point loss. KenPom is pretty much in line, projecting an 65-68 defeat (-3 Points).

As we can see from the Model, most of the gap in the 4-Factors is NoT eFG% Margin & Stop Factor!

UW is in for a battle on Monday Night! Virginia isn’t gaudy in terms of Tempo, 2P Shooting, or 3P shooting. But much like Wisconsin, Tony Bennett’s Virginia Teams DO NOT TURN THE BALL OVER. This really enhances their NoT eFG% Margin. And so far their eFG% & TO Rate has been Higher (eFG%) & Lower (TO Rate) than UW. Giving them the edge!

Wisconsin Basketball STOP FACTOR:

Given the 54% projected eFG% for Virginia & a 76% DREB% projection for Wisconsin Basketball. Our STOP FACTOR is coming in at 1.41. Compare that to Virginia who is projected to get a 75% DREB%, and allow only 49% eFG% from Wisconsin Basketball. For a Stop Factor of 1.53!

Three Keys for Wisconsin Basketball vs. Virginia:

• Attack the Offensive Glass
  • Virginia has been stout in 3/4 games this year, the only game where they’ve given up more than .814 PPP was versus Florida (1.05 PPP). This was built upon Florida’s 50% OREB%!! Had Florida had a lower TO Rate they would have gotten even more than +7 FGAs vs. Virgina and probably pull that one out! UW needs to make the most of all the possessions they get, getting 2nd chances is going to be huge!
• Limit Reece Beekman
  • This is going to be a fantastic battle to watch in Chucky Hepburn vs. Reece Beekman. Two of the Top-50 Guards in the country. Beekman does it all for Virginia taking 29.6% of their shots, but he also manages to get everyone going as well along with not turning it over (44.1 AST Rate vs. 8.8% TO RATE | 5.75 AST/TO Ratio). These are just absurdly good numbers. If Chucky can disrupt him and Kamari McGee as well in a dual effort, we should be able to impact Virginia’s offense substantially!
• Get to the FT Line
  • When you look back at Virginia, they only get beat when you beat them! The two ways to do that are first, get extra shots (OREBs) or get the most efficient shots. Which for most teams is two FT Attempts.

You’re not going to have much luck getting efficient shots against UVA. But if you can get extra looks & a higher mix of FTAs which themselves is a much more efficient offense. You’re going to have a shot against Virginia!

Let’s see how things go Monday Night.

On Wisconsin!

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