Wisconsin Basketball DOMINATED Virginia + SMU Matchup Preview

That was a thing of beauty from Wisconsin Basketball on Monday Night. What I was most impressed with was their physicality and energy, which manifested in their OREB%, which was MASSIVE in getting out to an early lead.

However, it also came in huge on the defensive end, a place where Wisconsin has struggled so far this season.

They were locked in, and communicated well, which kept them connected throughout the shot clock. And they finished damn near every possession with a Defensive Rebound…limiting UVA to get any 2nd chance opportunities.

People can whine and complain about the lack of shooting in the 1st Half, which is somewhat valid. But when you get that many 2nd Chance looks while not turning it over, we were still at 1.19 PPP vs. a Top-20 KenPom Defense. So kindly, put some respect on Greg Gard’s name!!!

Now.

Let’s dive deeper into the results and Analytics to break things down a bit further!!

4-Factor Prediction vs. Actuals Analysis:

As you can recall I projected a 2-point LOSS vs. Virginia:

Wisconsin basketball was so much better in every factor but ONE on Monday Night.

• NoT eFG% Margin | UW Gained 9.72 Points vs. Expectation
• STOP FACTOR | UW Gained 13.68 Points vs. Expectation | WOW!!
• OPP STOP FACTOR | UW Gained 3.5 Points vs. Expectation
• FT MARGIN | UW Lost 1.61 Points vs. Expectation

Based on the results, the Model would have projected a 23.22-Point Victory. Right on the Money! So let’s take a look at the results driving the 4-Factors to get a better sense of what happened.

NoT eFG% Margin:

UW was much better than expected from beyond the arc on Monday. It was by far the most 3PM we’ve had so far this year. We did however struggle inside the arc, especially inside the paint.

eFG% Rates:

1. AT-RIM (< 4.5FT) = 52.9% (9/17)
2. IN-PAINT = 33.3% (6/18)
3. MIDRANGE = 22.2% (2/9)
4. ATB 3s = 75% (6/12 = 9/12) | 3 > 2
5. Corner 3s = 50% (2/6 = 3/6) | 3 > 2

It really was shooting that impacted Virginia on Monday Night, even with a lowly NoT eFG% predicted at 35.5%…they managed to underperform!

eFG% Rates:

• AT-RIM (< 4.5FT) = 100% (2/2)
• IN-PAINT = 35.7% (5/14)
• MIDRANGE = 25% (4/16)
• ATB 3s = 50% (4/12 = 6/12)
• Corner 3s = 0% (0/2 = 0/2)

STOP FACTOR & OPP STOP FACTOR:

Now, here is where we REALLY won the game on Monday Night!

A 2.87 STOP FACTOR, the 3rd Highest ever since I’ve been tracking UW Basketball Analytics! A truly dominant performance defensively, but a defensive possession doesn’t end until you grab the rebound. UW Did that at a 90.3% Rate on Monday, a slight underperformance to the Model but pretty damn good!

This gap right here in STOP FACTOR, where UVA was only able to pull down 47% of their DREB Opportunities won us this game. It’s what allowed us to maintain a 1.19 PPP mark on only 41% NoT eFG%. It was one of the keys to the game for me, but I’d be lying if I thought this was even remotely possible. Although Virginia has struggled to rebound the basketball all season long; we just highlighted it quite brutally.

FT Margin:

• Wisconsin: FTAR = 12.9% | FT % = 87.5% | 7/8
• Robert Morris: FTAR = 15.2% | FT % = 100% | 7/7
• FT Margin = 0

Wisconsin Basketball Player Metrics:

***

Wisconsin Basketball PPS (Points Per Shot):

Gilmore does Gilmore things, I loved Greg Gard calling out the Gilmore haters. While yes, would we love him to be more than he is offensively he doesn’t play outside of his role. And he is FANTASTIC at taking care of the ball (usually) and plays 3-5 on defense. His On-Off Split for overall Defensive Efficiency is +17!!!!!! I know we’re talking PPS but this is important.

When he is on the court over 100 Possessions we would give up 17 Fewer Points, if you can look me in the eyes and tell me that’s not important….YOU DON’T KNOW BALL.

Crowl was AWESOME, a truly dominant performance that we need on a consitent basis. It won’t be night in night out, but if we can get that every 3rd game and +1.00 PPS on others we’re going to be very good!

Max Klesmit, a lot of people want him to be more aggressive offensively. I couldn’t disagree more. What makes him a great fit into the puzzle is he’s an efficient low-usage player. He took some bad shots on Monday, now they went in, but they weren’t sustainable. He’s at his best knocking down Catch & Shoot 3s, or getting straight line drives preferably to his right. If we get anything more than that is extreme positive variance, nothing more.

Same for John Blackwell, those turnaround Mid-Range Jumpers are not good. Cut them out now, save that for your sophomore-year jump. Right now we need him to keep doing what he did vs. Arkansas State, Providence & Robert Morris. Catch & Shoot 3s, Straight-Line Drives get the most out of those opportunities. Play highly efficient basketball. Storr/Crowl/Wahl/Hepburn are all more positioned and capable of High USG% Roles right now!

Wahl High Usage…A Good Thing? Did you see that First Half? Agreed, but nobody in that 1st Half looked good outside of Crowl & Blackwell. And in the 2nd Half, he was 4/7 on 1.14 PPS! That’s damn good and they were great buckets that are much MUCH better than Mid-Range contested jumpers from Blackwell and Klesmit!

If I see Chucky throw up any more fallaway Mid-Range Jumpers, I may lose it. That Pull-Up 3 of the P&R that was a near dagger late in the 2nd Half, needs to be a mainstay in his arsenal. I’d much rather him shoot 33% (his Mid-Range 2P% now) hell even he shot those 3s at 25% what he shot Mid-Range 2s Last Year. Those would be so much better shots, again 3>2:

As you can see FG% is relatively flat once you get past 10FT – 24FT but the value of the shot. SKYROCKETS when you step behind the 3P Line. Greg Gard needs to hammer this home to Chucky, the inefficiency from his “Midrange” Game is unacceptable. He’s a really good 3P shooter which honestly makes this even worse!

Wisconsin Basketball Points-Created/USG%:

Chucky Makes up for his inefficient shooting with a fantastic 6:0 | AST:TO Ratio! A Masterclass!

Blackwell could have benefited from keeping his eyes out for more offense instead of jacking up some of those Midrange Jumpers. On 27% USG and all of that coming from FGAs, he wasn’t efficient enough. This can’t become the norm!

Wisconsin Basketball Ball Security Factor:

This is just beautiful, when Gilmore is your worst in “Ball Security” you’re going to win A LOT of ballgames. Really great stuff from EVERYONE cherishing the ball on both ends!

** BONUS CONTENT – SMU PREVIEW **

SMU Predicted 4-Factors:

1. NoT eFG%: 40.37%
2. DREB%: 73%
3. OREB%: 26%
4. FTAR: 27.5%

Wisconsin Basketball Predicted 4-Factors:

1. NoT eFG%: 41.21%
2. DREB%: 74%
3. OREB%: 27%
4. FTAR: 39.0%

Will the Badgers beat SMU?:

YES. But I think it’ll be much closer than KenPom thinks (UW: 77 – SMU:69). SMU hasn’t really played anyone, and at this point in the Season, I’m not factoring in the strength of the opponent in the NoT eFG% Margin yet. So if SMU plays like they did vs. Texas A&M then this should track closer to what KenPom has. I find it difficult to make that projection so soon in the season. But Ken has much more data to make some historic judgments.

Wisconsin Basketball is in for a great matchup on Wednesday vs. SMU. Let’s hope they can bring home another win as we roll into Marquette Week!! The biggest week of the year!!

On Wisconsin!

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