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BadgerNotes Staff Predictions: Wisconsin Football vs. Georgia Southern

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Wisconsin football; Badgers running back Chez Mellusi
Sep 2, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Tanner Mordecai (8) celebrates with running back Chez Mellusi (1) following a touchdown during the first quarter against the Buffalo Bulls at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Well, last week sucked, huh? Hopefully, the Wisconsin football team will come out pissed off and take out all their frustration on Georgia Southern, who is visiting Camp Randall tomorrow at 11:00 AM.

Last week, in our BadgerNotes Staff Predictions, we had six staff members predict the Badgers would go to Pullman and exact revenge on the Cougars from last season. One writer felt a little less optimistic about the Badgers’ chances. One out of the seven of us came out smelling like roses while the other six put a ‘1’ in our loss columns.

Let’s all hope for a better outcome this week, yeah?

So here we go, Week 3 BadgersNotes Staff Predictions: Wisconsin vs. Georgia Southern

BadgerNotes Staff Predictions: Wisconsin Football vs. Georgia Southern

Christian Borman (1-1): 42 – 13

You have to pick Wisconsin football here, right? A team like Wisconsin and a coach like Luke Fickell aren’t going to lose a game like this in a situation like this…right?

I think this game is going to go one of two ways:

1: The Badgers come out slow (again) and they allow Georgia Southern to stay in the game and it’s much closer than it should be. At that point, it’ll be all about who doesn’t make a mistake. The Wisconsin defense hasn’t forced a turnover yet this season, which is pretty worrisome. 

2: The Badgers are pissed about last week and assert their dominance like they should. They are all gas and no breaks and blow the Eagles out of the game, putting it away before halftime. 

I’m going to cautiously choose the latter. If this team is the team we think it is, this game should not be a problem. I don’t care that they run an air raid offense or that Clay Helton is their head coach. The Badgers have much higher-quality players than the Eagles do. If they lose this game, fans will have a good reason to be frustrated and question what is going on in the program.

I don’t think it comes to that though. I think Braelon Allen breaks back out after a dismal game on Saturday. In addition to the Badgers winning, I think Allen rushes for 150+ yards and two touchdowns. Badgers win big. 

Dillon Graff (1-1): Wisconsin 31-14

I want to preface my prediction by saying I want to look stupid when the clock hits zeros. Wisconsin football enters the game as 19-point favorites, and while they SHOULD cover — I haven’t seen anything that makes me feel comfortable that they will. 

Wisconsin’s defense hasn’t started well in either of the first two games and if they’re unable to produce a dominant outing — I’ll go on record saying that’s a significant concern for me entering Big Ten play. I need to see UW’s defense force a turnover.  

The Badgers offense hasn’t looked like they’re comfortable with their new identity yet — and to me, the offense line play is the biggest reason why. 

Give me Wisconsin football to win, but it will look harder than it should. 

Jake Maier (1-1): Wisconsin 38-10

This matchup is a perfect one for Wisconsin to get back on track after a tough loss to Washington State. Low-level competition at home is about all you could ask for. That said, there are some contributors who need to step up. On the offensive end, it would be great to see the tailbacks and o-line to get back on track (I’m looking at you specifically, Jack Nelson). I’m also interested to see how Wisconsin’s secondary fares against Georgia Southern’s passing attack. They’re deep at wide receiver, and their quarterback is nothing to scoff at.

I think this should be a comfortable win, and I’m hoping to see some points from Wisconsin. I’ll go with a 38-10 victory for UW.

Dylan Buboltz (1-1): Wisconsin 38-14

I think this is a get-right game for the Badgers. Georgia Southern is expected to throw the ball a ton- something the UW defense has been used to seeing to this point. I think Braelon Allen is due to have a monster game and I think he’s going to deliver. The passing game looks to be in sync and I think they continue with that.

The defense has yet to force a turnover this year. I think that changes this week. I think they are for multiple turnovers and get right headed into the Big Ten portion of the schedule.

Ryan Eilers (1-1): Wisconsin 58-13

Admittedly, this game has given me some pause unlike any of the others. In all honesty, it’s another game the Badgers should win handily. I would be lying if I said it didn’t give me flashbacks to the 2017 tilt against Florida Atlantic. Thankfully Wisconsin prevailed 23-17 in a tight ballgame. If you recall, Florida Atlantic was a Group of 5 school led by former Southern Cal Head Coach Lane Kiffin. Due to the impending storm, Kiffin and the Owls had to extend their stay in Madison due to Hurricane Irma.

Fast forward to 2023 — it’s another Group of 5 team led by a former Southern Cal head coach. Georgia Southern Head Coach Clay Helton brings his team to Madison during another imminent storm. Unfortunately for Eagles and Helton, Hurricane Bucky is forecasted to make landfall on Saturday morning. I am not a meteorologist — but by the looks of the Twitter doppler this category-five storm has been brewing since the Wisconsin spring game. Batten down the hatches — the points storm is coming! Badgers win 58-13.

Kedrick Stumbris (1-0): Wisconsin 45-21

Wisconsin should bounce back against Georgia Southern. Last week, the Eagles allowed 35 points and 477 yards of offense against UAB. Against that defense, I am confident the Badgers offense will have their best performance on the season so far. Although UW has started slowly, the Dairy Raid might come out in full force.

If I have one concern in this game, it is Wisconsin’s ability to slow down Georgia Southern’s offense. Georgia Southern quarterback Davis Brin can air out the ball. He has passed for 562 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions through two weeks. That production, however impressive, did come against a lower level of competition.

I expect the final margin of victory will be closer than the game actually feels. The Eagles may get some scores in garbage time inflating the number on the total. Badgers win 45-21.


Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers basketball news, notes, opinions, and analysis. You can also follow Christian Borman on Twitter @christianborman.

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The Implications of Chez Mellusi’s Injury for Wisconsin Football

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Wisconsin football; Badgers running back Chez Mellusi suffers devastating injury
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Chez Mellusi (1) is taken off the field in a cart after suffering an injury during the second half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

The Wisconsin football program is heading into the bye week on a high note with a 38-17 win over Purdue. The Badgers showed some flashes of potential in their Big Ten opener, but the biggest storyline coming out of the game was the injury to Chez Mellusi

The injury looked bad on replay, but the cart coming out for the former Clemson transfer, along with an air cast being placed on his leg, heightened fears for the worst. Ultimately, it was confirmed that Mellusi would miss the rest of the 2023 season with a fractured fibula.

Mellusi’s fracture marked his third significant injury during his tenure with the Badgers. He was named the starter in 2021 after transferring in from Clemson but ultimately suffered a season-ending ACL tear. He would return for his 2022 campaign but miss four games in the middle of the season due to a broken arm. Now, just four games into the season, Mellusi will miss the final eight games of the regular season. 

Where Does Wisconsin Football Go From Here?

Without Mellusi, UW will look to its young talent to replicate his production, which could be challenging. The fifth-year senior logged 51 carries for 307 yards and four touchdowns through four games. He also tacked on three receptions for 12 yards. 

Mellusi did earn a bulk of the carries through four games, with Braleon Allen dinged up. Luckily, Allen looks to be back to his usual self, so they won’t need to rely on a younger back to take the majority of the carries. Still, the depth is a big question mark for Wisconsin’s running back room now. 

Behind Allen, the Badgers have Jackson Acker, Cade Yacamelli, Grover Bortolotti, and Nate White to fill out the rotation. 

Acker, a redshirt sophomore, has sparingly seen some time on the field as the RB3. The Madison native has appeared in three games thus far, logging eight carries for 31 yards as well as one reception for three yards. As the RB3, he’ll be expected to step up in the wake of Mellusi’s injury when Allen needs a breather. 

Converted safety Cade Yacamelli will be the likely candidate to fill Acker’s shoes in the RB3 role. He hasn’t appeared in any offensive snaps thus far, but he has seen some time on the field with special teams. Reports out of spring and fall camp indicated that Yacamelli had something in the tank as a running back, but it remains to be seen in live game reps. 

It’s not the best situation for Wisconsin to be in, but UW does have plenty of contributors at tailback who could take some snaps if need be. Although this situation is a tough one all around, there could be a bright spot. 

Chez Mellusi Could Return to the Wisconsin Football Program in 2024

Since Mellusi sustained his injury during the fourth game of the season, Badger fans shouldn’t rule out a sixth-year return from the standout tailback.

Although Mellusi didn’t see starter-level snaps during his time with Clemson, he never used a redshirt year. Plus, his sophomore season was impacted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, giving him another year of eligibility. 

So, the choice for Mellusi comes down to focusing on his health and looking to sign with an NFL team as a UDFA or moving on to the next phase of his life outside of football. On the other hand, he could return for a sixth year to boost his draft stock. It certainly wouldn’t hurt Wisconsin, who is looking at Allen potentially heading to the NFL draft after the season and having an influx of young running backs coming into the fold, such as Darrion Dupree, Dilin Jones, and Gideon Ituka.

Although Mellusi’s injury is devastating for a number of reasons, there is a small bright spot in that we could see him don the cardinal and white one more time. 

Wisconsin is now headed into the bye week starting 3-1 on the season. They’ll take on Rutgers on October 7th in Madison as both teams look to improve to 4-1. 


Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here. Also, like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin football news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Jake Maier on Twitter @JakeJMaier.

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Wisconsin Football Defensive Snap Counts & PFF Grades vs. Purdue

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Wisconsin football; Badgers defensive end James Thompson Jr.
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers defensive end James Thompson Jr. (90) celebrates after sacking Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Hudson Card (1) during the first half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

Luke Fickell and the Wisconsin Badgers football team (3-1, 1-0 B1G) kicked off Big Ten play with a 38-17 victory over Ryan Walters and the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium on Friday night

In this post-game recap, we dissect the performance of the Wisconsin Badgers by analyzing their snap counts and Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades for each position group — and include a few stats that help add context to the ole eye test. 

By analyzing these metrics, we can gain a clearer insight into the individual contributions of each unit to the team’s overall performance. While you can’t take these figures as gospel, this allows us to identify strengths, key contributors, and areas where Wisconsin football excelled.

Let’s dive in. 

Wisconsin Football Defensive Snap Counts & PFF Grades

Wisconsin Badgers football

Purdue Boilermakers wide receiver TJ Sheffield (8) is tackled by a group of Wisconsin Badgers players during the NCAA football game, Friday, Sept. 22, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Wisconsin Badgers won 38-17.

Defensive Line:

Rodas Johnson – Snap Count: [36] – PFF Grade: [47.4]

James Thomspon – Snap Count: [35] – PFF Grade: [64.6]

Darian Varner – Snap Count: [15] – PFF Grade: [62.1]

***

Gio Paez – Snap Count: [23] – PFF Grade: [44.1]

Curt Neal – Snap Count: [19] – PFF Grade: [49.0]

Ben Barten – Snap Count: [16] – PFF Grade: [59.4]

Inside Linebackers:

Jake Chaney – Snap Count: [71] – PFF Grade: [61.2]

Jordan Turner – Snap Count: [70] – PFF Grade: [48.8]

*Maema Njongmeta – Snap Count: [1?] – PFF Grade: [N/A]

Outside Linebackers:

C.J. Goetz – Snap Count: [53] – PFF Grade: [55.0]

Darryl Peterson – Snap Count: [45] – PFF Grade: [56.6]

Jeff Pietrowski – Snap Count: [14] – PFF Grade: [55.6]

Kaden Johnson – Snap Count: [5] – PFF Grade: [79.1]

Cornerbacks:

Ricardo Hallman – Snap Count: [71] – PFF Grade: [69.2]

Jason Maitre – Snap Count: [69] – PFF Grade: [58.2]

Alexander Smith – Snap Count: [50] – PFF Grade: [74.9]

Nyzier Fourqurean – Snap Count: [21] – PFF Grade: [56.0]

Safeties:

Hunter Wohler – Snap Count: [71] – PFF Grade: [71.6]

Kamo’i Latu – Snap Count: [36] – PFF Grade: [59.7]

Preston Zachman – Snap Count: [61] – PFF Grade: [53.6]

Defensive Analysis:

The most peculiar thing about Wisconsin football beating Purdue on Friday night was senior inside linebacker Maema Njongmeta essentially not playing at all. Full disclosure: I didn’t notice it until somebody pointed it out — but he appeared to see the field for one snap on fourth down late in the game. Luke Fickell said he was available — and I have a hard time believing something more isn’t going on here — but I guess we’ll have to wait and see. 

The safety rotation was also somewhat bizarre to me for several reasons: Travian Blaylock sat in favor of a heavy dosage of Preston Zachman. I was also disappointed that Austin Brown couldn’t build off a strong performance against Georgia Southern. 

I don’t need to get super in-depth on this one, but the defensive front seven was BAD. James Thompson Jr. is quickly becoming a stud on the defensive line — but other than him — there weren’t any individual performances to write home about. Nobody on the Wisconsin football defense registered more than two pressures on the night, and the Badgers finished with 16 total. 

Lastly, a Wisconsin Badgers defense that’s struggled with giving up chunk plays all season (bottom third in the NCAA) also has a huge tackling issue — and was credited with 16 missed tackles as a team. This Wisconsin football defense isn’t talented enough to overcome these sloppy mistakes and is a clear point of emphasis to clean up during the bye week.

Wisconsin Football Offensive Snap Counts & PFF Grades vs. Purdue



Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers football news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Dillon Graff on Twitter @DillonGraff.

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Wisconsin Football Falls Outside the Top 25 in Week 4 SP+ Rankings

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Wisconsin football; Badgers head coach Luke Fickell
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell look on prior to the start of the game at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

On Friday night, Wisconsin Football laid down a 21-point victory in their Big Ten Conference opener against Purdue; now, the Badgers sit outside the top 25 in the AP polls with a 3-1 record (1-0 Big Ten) heading into a Week 5 bye before taking on Rutgers. 

The ESPN SP+ rankings were updated following the Week 4 slate, and the Cardinal and White slipped in the latest polls despite their 38-17 triumph over the Boilermakers.  

Wisconsin Football Falls Outside the Top 25 in Updated SP+ Rankings

For anyone unfamiliar with the ESPN SP+ model, it’s not your father’s associated press top 25 poll. It’s a forward-facing, Predictive model that serves as a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency.

With that out of the way, the Week 4 SP+ rankings currently have Wisconsin football as the No. 27 team in the country — down two spots from last week. According to the metric, the Badgers have an overall grade of 13.2, with the No. 39 offense, No. 18 defense, and No. 4 special teams unit.

Other notable Big Ten programs in the SP+ top 10 include Michigan (1), Ohio State (3), and Penn State (10).

When the Badgers come out of the bye week, Wisconsin football begins a tough stretch of games against Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State. Let’s hope the coaching staff can make necessary defensive adjustments, clean up the penalties on offense, and work in the younger running backs who must fill the No. 2 role after losing Chez Mellusi for the season.

Good, Bad and Ugly From Wisconsin Football 38-17 Win Over Purdue



Contact/Follow us @Badger_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to the BadgerNotes Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers football news, notes, opinion, and analysis. You can also follow Dillon Graff on Twitter @DillonGraff.

Follow this link and use promo code: BADGERNOTES for 25% off your next True Classic order.

Join the Badger Notes watch party and stream Wisconsin Badgers games by following this link.

*Subscribe to BadgerNotes After Dark on Youtube and wherever you find podcasts, the official Wisconsin Badgers podcast of the Big Banter Sports Network.

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