Wisconsin Basketball vs. Penn State: Analytics Game Prediction

If you missed my Wisconsin Badgers Basketball vs. Northwestern Prediction, find it here. We were damn close on everything except for Pace. Both teams really slowed the tempo down, but I believe the constant whistles and FT shooting eliminated any up-and-down nature of the game. You can blame NW for that & their 24 Fouls to UW’s 15!

I’ve been in the Analytics Lab over the past few weeks dialing in my Prediction Model, and it’s now good enough to publish. So when you’re looking to see what the next Wisconsin Basketball matchup looks like from an “analytics” perspective, as you should certainly be checking Torvik’s T-Rank, Haslametrics & KenPom.com (if you’re subscribed), be sure you’re checking on my prediction too! It’ll be here at BadgerNotes for Every. Single. Game!

With that, let’s dive into the Prediction Model for Tuesday’s matchup vs. Penn State!!

Wisconsin Basketball Prediction Model

First, let’s start off with what comprises my Prediction Model (See Below):

Pace:

Gard Your Fickell’s Model | 68.81 Projected Possesions

KenPom Model | 68 Projected Possesions

Torvik T-Rank | ???

Haslam Metrics | 67.6 Projected Possions = (Projected Points / “Should” OEFF)

Height:

Wisconsin Basketball has the Height advantage over Penn State with an Average Height of 78.39 vs. 77.17 (inches). This greatly influences my DREB% Model along with the other Metrics listed and in that Model (3PAR, FTAR, 2P%,3P%, and OPP OREB%).

DREB%:

Wisconsin Basketball also has the DREB% advantage over Penn State, with an expectation of them grabbing 78.99% of Defensive Boards in Tuesday’s Matchup vs. an expectation that Penn State grabs only 75.28% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities.

DREB% is a huge component in Stop Factor, which is essentially my own Defensive Efficiency Metric. I’m working on adjusting my DREB% model to take into account past performance and see if a team can have outsized influence over the model metrics. Still debating over the HOW to do this:

• Do I look at overall performance vs. the Model and regress over that?
• Or regress over each factor and adjust each factor in the model?

This will probably take a few weeks to test out! But for now, we’ll stick with the current model.

Stop_Factor:

Wisconsin Basketball has a major edge in Stop Factor, coming in at a projected 1.90 Stop Factor to Penn State’s 1.67. For those unfamiliar with Stopp Factor, it’s looking at a Team’s ability to be efficient on Defense.

That can come in various ways:

• Low eFG% given up to your opponent
• Forcing a lot of turnovers
• Collecting a high % of Defensive Rebounds available.

Doing all three at a high level will usually put you >2.00 in Stop Factor; UW is really close to being projected there. And here’s how they do it.

Wisconsin is fairly mediocre in DeFG% given up, a bit above average in forcing turnovers, but ELITE in keeping opponents off the offensive glass. But given that even the best teams offensively struggle to make >50% of their FGAs (11 NCAA Teams shoot >50% from the field), it shouldn’t shock that Wisconsin is a Top-35 KenPom Defense & ranked so highly in my Defensive Metric. Nearly half the battle defensively is not allowing 2nd Chance Points, and Wisconsin does that better than 98% of the College Basketball!

Score Prediction & Model Table:

Final Thoughts on the Badgers vs Penn State

Wisconsin is projected to win quite comfortably, but when in Happy Valley (PA), Lincoln (NE), Evanston (IL), or Piscataway (NJ) I never feel good about Wisconsin Basketball’s chances. Since 2011 UW’s average Offensive Efficency in Happy Valley has underperformed by ~11 Points/100 Possessions. And not even the 2015 National Runner-Ups were impervious to this.

I didn’t have the time to run this analysis on Nebraska and Northwestern or to dig into what in particular drives this eFG% (Shooting), TOs, OREB%, or FTAR.

Ultimately, it’s probably a combination of all of them; the important thing to know is that we usually struggle offensively in Happy Valley. So hold on tight, it could get rocky Tuesday night. But this group has shown a ton of grit to pull out some huge victories, especially over the last two B1G outings.

We’ll see if Wisconsin basketball can do it again on Tuesday night. One thing for certain: the Model sure thinks so!

On Wisconsin!

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