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Wisconsin Football vs. Ohio State FPI Predictions & Betting Odds

Here’s a look at how ESPN’s math nerds & Vegas odds makers see Wisconsin football vs. Ohio State shaking out.



Wisconsin Badgers football takes on Ohio State
Sep 24, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Wisconsin Badgers fans celebrate a touchdown by quarterback Graham Mertz (5) during the first half of the NCAA Division I football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch Ncaa Football Wisconsin Badgers At Ohio State Buckeyes

Luke Fickell and the Wisconsin football team (5-2, 2-1 B1G) made Badgers fans sweat for all four quarters but ultimately pulled out a 25-21 victory over Bret Bielema and the Illinois Fighting Illini on the road last Saturday.

An unexpected Iowa loss at the hands of Minnesota has shifted the balance of power in the Big Ten West, giving Wisconsin a chance to control its destiny, at least for the moment. Regardless, the Badgers’ optimism is tempered by the daunting prospect of facing No. 3 Ohio State at Camp Randall this coming weekend.

With that in mind, let’s examine the Las Vegas betting lines for the upcoming David vs. Goliath matchup and see how ESPN’s FPI sees the Wisconsin Badgers road game shaking out.

Wisconsin Football vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Lines

  • Moneyline (ML): Ohio State -750 OR Wisconsin +525
  • Against the spread: Ohio State -15.5 (-110) OR Wisconsin + 15.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 U: -110)

The Wisconsin football team gutted out a fourth-quarter rally against the Illini last weekend, and redshirt freshman Braedyn Locke looked like a stud in his first start at quarterback. But that was against the last-place team in the Big Ten West — Ohio State is an entirely different beast.

I’m all for blind optimism and backing the Badgers until I’m blue in the face. But I will take a much more logical approach if we’re putting money on the table. No matter how enticing it is, I’m steering clear of this money line — and if I’m being honest, I don’t like the spread either.

Call me a pessimist, but we have yet to see Wisconsin play a complete game this season under Luke Fickell — so I’m not banking on the first time they do it being against No. 3 Ohio State.

I’ll take the over, though.

How ESPNs FPI Sees the Badgers Week 9 Matchup vs. Ohio State Shaking Out

ESPN’s FPI model projects that Wisconsin football has an 11.7% chance of winning its home game against Ohio State this weekend.

The computer’s projection seems about right, which is tough to accept for any home game–but the Badgers last took down the Buckeyes in 2010.

So, it’s been a minute.

If Luke Fickell is going to orchestrate an upset over OSU this coming weekend, the sloppy panties have to come to an end. Additionally, Wisconsin football must win the turnover battle and impose its will in the running game from the jump.

I don’t think the Wisconsin Badgers will win this weekend — but crazier things have happened, right?

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Dillon Graff is a Substack newsletter best-selling author, publisher of AllBadgers, and the owner of, your go-to source for in-depth coverage of the Wisconsin Badgers. His work has been featured in top media publications like USA Today's BadgersWire, Athlon Sports, Bleacher Report, Verbal Commits, Bucky's 5th Quarter, and FanSided.