Sep 2, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell celebrates with wide wide receiver Chimere Dike (13) following a touchdown during the second quarter against the Buffalo Bulls at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
The anticipation among Badgers fans is palpable as the Wisconsin football team (1-1, 0-0 B1G) gears up to face the Georgia Southern Eagles (2-0) at Camp Randall Stadium in Week 3.
After a rollercoaster start to the season with a lackluster win over Buffalo in the opener and a disheartening loss to Washington State, the Badgers find themselves at a critical juncture.
The upcoming game against the Georgia Southern Eagles is the last chance for Wisconsin to right the ship before heading into Big Ten conference play and prove they’re a team with all the tools to push for a trip to Indy.
Here are the dream and nightmare scenarios for the Wisconsin Badgers week three matchup.
Wisconsin Football Dream Scenario
In the dream scenario, Wisconsin Football returns to the winning ways that have defined the program for years. The Badgers, having had time to adjust to the new air raid offense, finally unleash their full potential.
Quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who showed glimpses of brilliance in the previous games, becomes the maestro of the air raid, connecting with his top receivers seamlessly and even hitting on a deep ball or two.
The offensive line provides the protection needed for Mordecai to survey the field and exploit Georgia Southern’s defensive weaknesses.
Mike Tressel‘s defense, meanwhile, locks down the Georgia Southern offense, forcing multiple turnovers and three-and-outs. Additionally, the pass rush creates enough havoc to feel better about what’s to come.
In this dream scenario, Wisconsin Football achieves a convincing victory over Georgia Southern, reassuring fans that transitioning to the air raid offense was the right move. Confidence is momentarily restored, and the Badgers football program enter Big Ten play with renewed vigor and a sense of purpose.
Wisconsin Football Nightmare Scenario
Conversely, the nightmare scenario unfolds if Wisconsin football fails to overcome the issues that plagued them in the previous games.
Despite being favored by 19, the Badgers struggle to find their rhythm offensively once again. Mordecai faces relentless pressure from Georgia Southern’s defense due to mediocre offensive line play, leading to errant throws, turnovers, and missed opportunities.
The new air raid offense sputters, failing to produce points and leaving fans questioning how the Badgers will figure it out in conference play.
Defensively, Wisconsin football fails to contain Georgia Southern’s offense, allowing the Eagles to control the clock and wear down the Badgers’ defense. Missed tackles and blown assignments result in big plays for the Eagles, putting Wisconsin on its back foot. The game becomes a frustrating, low-scoring affair, and the Badgers struggle to create enough separation to experiment and put things on cruise control.
In the nightmare scenario, Wisconsin Football faces either a close win where you don’t feel good about it or a demoralizing loss to Georgia Southern, further fueling doubts about the effectiveness of the air raid offense and the team’s overall competitiveness.
Fans are left wondering if the disappointing start to the season is a harbinger of continued struggles ahead. Either way, the outcome against Georgia Southern will shape the narrative for the rest of the season, for better or worse.
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Chez Mellusi (1) is taken off the field in a cart after suffering an injury during the second half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
The injury looked bad on replay, but the cart coming out for the former Clemson transfer, along with an air cast being placed on his leg, heightened fears for the worst. Ultimately, it was confirmed that Mellusi would miss the rest of the 2023 season with a fractured fibula.
Mellusi’s fracture marked his third significant injury during his tenure with the Badgers. He was named the starter in 2021 after transferring in from Clemson but ultimately suffered a season-ending ACL tear. He would return for his 2022 campaign but miss four games in the middle of the season due to a broken arm. Now, just four games into the season, Mellusi will miss the final eight games of the regular season.
Where Does Wisconsin Football Go From Here?
Without Mellusi, UW will look to its young talent to replicate his production, which could be challenging. The fifth-year senior logged 51 carries for 307 yards and four touchdowns through four games. He also tacked on three receptions for 12 yards.
Mellusi did earn a bulk of the carries through four games, with Braleon Allen dinged up. Luckily, Allen looks to be back to his usual self, so they won’t need to rely on a younger back to take the majority of the carries. Still, the depth is a big question mark for Wisconsin’s running back room now.
Behind Allen, the Badgers have Jackson Acker, Cade Yacamelli, Grover Bortolotti, and Nate White to fill out the rotation.
Acker, a redshirt sophomore, has sparingly seen some time on the field as the RB3. The Madison native has appeared in three games thus far, logging eight carries for 31 yards as well as one reception for three yards. As the RB3, he’ll be expected to step up in the wake of Mellusi’s injury when Allen needs a breather.
Converted safety Cade Yacamelli will be the likely candidate to fill Acker’s shoes in the RB3 role. He hasn’t appeared in any offensive snaps thus far, but he has seen some time on the field with special teams. Reports out of spring and fall camp indicated that Yacamelli had something in the tank as a running back, but it remains to be seen in live game reps.
It’s not the best situation for Wisconsin to be in, but UW does have plenty of contributors at tailback who could take some snaps if need be. Although this situation is a tough one all around, there could be a bright spot.
Chez Mellusi Could Return to the Wisconsin Football Program in 2024
Since Mellusi sustained his injury during the fourth game of the season, Badger fans shouldn’t rule out a sixth-year return from the standout tailback.
Although Mellusi didn’t see starter-level snaps during his time with Clemson, he never used a redshirt year. Plus, his sophomore season was impacted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, giving him another year of eligibility.
So, the choice for Mellusi comes down to focusing on his health and looking to sign with an NFL team as a UDFA or moving on to the next phase of his life outside of football. On the other hand, he could return for a sixth year to boost his draft stock. It certainly wouldn’t hurt Wisconsin, who is looking at Allen potentially heading to the NFL draft after the season and having an influx of young running backs coming into the fold, such as Darrion Dupree, Dilin Jones, and Gideon Ituka.
Although Mellusi’s injury is devastating for a number of reasons, there is a small bright spot in that we could see him don the cardinal and white one more time.
Wisconsin is now headed into the bye week starting 3-1 on the season. They’ll take on Rutgers on October 7th in Madison as both teams look to improve to 4-1.
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers defensive end James Thompson Jr. (90) celebrates after sacking Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Hudson Card (1) during the first half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
In this post-game recap, we dissect the performance of the Wisconsin Badgers by analyzing their snap counts and Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades for each position group — and include a few stats that help add context to the ole eye test.
By analyzing these metrics, we can gain a clearer insight into the individual contributions of each unit to the team’s overall performance. While you can’t take these figures as gospel, this allows us to identify strengths, key contributors, and areas where Wisconsin football excelled.
Let’s dive in.
Wisconsin Football Defensive Snap Counts & PFF Grades
Purdue Boilermakers wide receiver TJ Sheffield (8) is tackled by a group of Wisconsin Badgers players during the NCAA football game, Friday, Sept. 22, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Wisconsin Badgers won 38-17.
Defensive Line:
Rodas Johnson – Snap Count: [36] – PFF Grade: [47.4]
James Thomspon – Snap Count: [35] – PFF Grade: [64.6]
The most peculiar thing about Wisconsin football beating Purdue on Friday night was senior inside linebacker Maema Njongmeta essentially not playing at all. Full disclosure: I didn’t notice it until somebody pointed it out — but he appeared to see the field for one snap on fourth down late in the game. Luke Fickell said he was available — and I have a hard time believing something more isn’t going on here — but I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
The safety rotation was also somewhat bizarre to me for several reasons: Travian Blaylock sat in favor of a heavy dosage of Preston Zachman. I was also disappointed that Austin Brown couldn’t build off a strong performance against Georgia Southern.
I don’t need to get super in-depth on this one, but the defensive front seven was BAD. James Thompson Jr. is quickly becoming a stud on the defensive line — but other than him — there weren’t any individual performances to write home about. Nobody on the Wisconsin football defense registered more than two pressures on the night, and the Badgers finished with 16 total.
Lastly, a Wisconsin Badgers defense that’s struggled with giving up chunk plays all season (bottom third in the NCAA) also has a huge tackling issue — and was credited with 16 missed tackles as a team. This Wisconsin football defense isn’t talented enough to overcome these sloppy mistakes and is a clear point of emphasis to clean up during the bye week.
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell look on prior to the start of the game at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
On Friday night, Wisconsin Football laid down a 21-point victory in their Big Ten Conference opener against Purdue; now, the Badgers sit outside the top 25 in the AP polls with a 3-1 record (1-0 Big Ten) heading into a Week 5 bye before taking on Rutgers.
Wisconsin Football Falls Outside the Top 25 in Updated SP+ Rankings
For anyone unfamiliar with the ESPN SP+ model, it’s not your father’s associated press top 25 poll. It’s a forward-facing, Predictive model that serves as a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency.
With that out of the way, the Week 4 SP+ rankings currently have Wisconsin football as the No. 27 team in the country — down two spots from last week. According to the metric, the Badgers have an overall grade of 13.2, with the No. 39 offense, No. 18 defense, and No. 4 special teams unit.
Other notable Big Ten programs in the SP+ top 10 include Michigan (1), Ohio State (3), and Penn State (10).
When the Badgers come out of the bye week, Wisconsin football begins a tough stretch of games against Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State. Let’s hope the coaching staff can make necessary defensive adjustments, clean up the penalties on offense, and work in the younger running backs who must fill the No. 2 role after losing Chez Mellusi for the season.