LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 30: Running back Braelon Allen #0 of the Wisconsin Badgers warms up before a game against the Arizona State Sun Devils in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium on December 30, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Badgers defeated the Sun Devils 20-13. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)

Game Breakdown and Best Bets: Week 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Game Breakdown and Best Bets: Week 4 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 3 Ohio State

The Wisconsin Badgers showed up to play last week, defeating the New Mexico State Aggies 66-7.

I wish I could say the same for myself. Unfortunately, I went 0-4 last week, bringing my record to 2-6 for the season.

I have no choice but to stay positive. It’s a minor setback for a major comeback.

The Wisconsin Badgers will travel to Columbus to take on the No. 3 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday, September 24. Kickoff is at 6:30 pm (CST) on ABC.

To find all our content for this week’s game, visit badgernotes.com.


Game Breakdown

Ohio State Buckeyes

Last week I said the Aggies of New Mexico State were one of the worst teams in all of college football (And I was right. I Need to take my wins wherever I can at this point).

This week is the opposite for Badgers. They are facing off against one of the best teams in the country, Ohio State.

The Ohio State offense has been an absolute juggernaut this season, averaging 47.7 points per game.

OSU is No. 7 in the nation in passing at 358.3 yards per game, and their running game is no joke either, averaging 207 yards per game, which is good for No. 34 in the country.

That totals to a whopping 565.3 yards per game, which is tops in the country.

It all starts with the Heisman favorite and potential number one pick in the 2023 NFL draft, quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Stroud is a true pocket-passing QB, completing over 72% of his passes this season for 941 yards, 11 touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

OSU’s Dynamic WR’s

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been banged up this year, tweaking his hamstring in Ohio States’ week one matchup against Notre Dame. So, his numbers on the year don’t look the best, four receptions and only 36 yards. Still, he is an elite receiver who will have a breakout game at some point.

In Smith-Njigba’s absence, Emeka Egbuka, and Marvin Harrison Jr. have stepped up big time as 1A and 1B receiving options.

Egbuka has hauled in 20 receptions for 324 yards and three touchdowns, eclipsing his numbers from his freshman season in 2021.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has been stuntin’ like his daddy this season, collecting 18 receptions for 342 yards and five touchdowns.

This week, the Buckeyes receiving corps will easily be the biggest challenge for the Badgers’ defense.

Ohio State’s two-headed monster at running back could also cause issues for Wisconsin’s defense.

Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson have been splitting carries evenly this season. Williams with 32 attempts, and Henderson with 29.

The duo has a combined 404 yards and four touchdowns on the ground this season.

Henderson did leave last week’s game against Toledo after the first drive with an undisclosed injury (he was seen wearing a walking boot after the game).

In summary, fuck Ohio State. 


Wisconsin Badgers

Last week was exactly what the Badgers needed. A dominant performance in all three phases of the game.

The competition was awful, but it still gives the fellas a little extra confidence heading into this week’s massive matchup with the Buckeyes.

Like Wisconsin, Ohio State boasts an elite defense, allowing only 278.7 total yards per game.

The offensive line needs another strong performance if the Badgers want to keep things competitive. Starting tackle Riley Mahlman will miss his third straight game with a leg injury. Expect Logan Brown and Trey Wedig to earn snaps in his place out at right tackle.

UW will try to establish the run, as always, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them take some deep shots early, considering the Buckeyes gave up touchdowns of 50, 40, and 23 yards against the Toledo Rockets last week. I would love to see Graham Mertz try to exploit that.

As for the defense, getting pressure on C.J. Stroud is a must. Stroud is not a quarterback who likes to run much, only collecting nine yards on seven carries this year.

If the Badgers give him time in the pocket, he will carve this defense up. Ohio State has a very strong offensive line, and thankfully, players like Nick Herbig and Keeanu Benton can neutralize that.

Herbig, Wisconsin’s star outside linebacker, is currently tied for sixth in the nation with four sacks on the season. Benton has yet to record a sack this season, but his numbers are still impressive, totaling eight tackles, eight pressures, and 1.5 tackles for loss through three contests.

I don’t have much else to say about the game, considering this will be Wisconsin’s toughest task all season. 


Wisconsin Badgers Best Bets

As mentioned earlier, it hasn’t been a great start to the season for me. But that’s in the past. We’re on to this week. 

 Best Bets Season Record: (2-6-0)

  • Wisconsin Badgers +19 (-110) – This is my favorite bet of the week. In our staff predictions article that came out yesterday, you’ll see that I have faith in the Badgers keeping this game close. I think they will pressure C.J. Stroud enough to keep it within the 19 points.
  • Graham Mertz over 216 passing yards (+129) – Mertz is playing the best football of his life right now, and the Badgers will need some big plays to hang around in this one. Mertz has also gone over 216 yards passing in every game this season. 
  • Clay Cundiff over 36 yards receiving (+106) – Cundiff has been one of Mertz’s favorite targets this year and has gone over 36 yards in his last two games. I don’t mind him +300 to score a touchdown, either. Cundiff is easily the Badgers’ biggest red zone threat. 
  • Defensive or special teams TD scored by either team (yes +190) – If you’ve read my previous articles, this needs no explanation. I’m addicted

To place your own bets with BadgerNotes partner – MyBookie.AG – Click here


You can follow me on Twitter @FrznPizzaCooperThere you’ll find jokes, plenty of music takes, offensive line talk (especially anything Larry Allen related), Larry Bird highlights (I got a thing for Larry’s what can I say), and of course my work for badgernotes.com.

Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Always bet responsibly.

Badgers Country. Let’s ride.

Sep 10, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; General view of Camp Randall Stadium during the second quarter of the game between the Washington State Cougars and Wisconsin Badgers. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Game Breakdown and Best Bets: Week 3 Wisconsin vs. New Mexico State

Well, last week against Washington State, the Wisconsin Badgers did what they do best. Play down to their competition.

Was I completely wrong in my game breakdown? Yes. Did I also hit 50% of my best bets? Yes.

It takes a real man to admit when he’s wrong, but an even bigger one to apologize. 

Unfortunately, I’m not that guy. 

The Badgers (now un-ranked) will look to right the ship against the New Mexico State Aggies (0-3), on Saturday, September 17th, at Camp Randall Stadium. Kickoff is at 2:30 pm(CST)

To find all of our content for this week’s game, visit badgernotes.com


Game Breakdown

New Mexico State Aggies

To put it bluntly, the Aggies are one of the worst teams in all of college football.

They have lost 20 straight road games to FBS competition, and you can expect that number to go up by one on Saturday.

The Aggie’s defense allows 350 yards per game, which surprisingly ranks 49th in the nation.

There is good news for the Badgers, though. The Aggies allow 194 rushing yards per game—ranking 111th out of 131 FBS teams.

Their offense, however, only averages 236 yards per game. Ranking them 121st out of a possible 131 teams in the FBS.

To top it off, the Aggies average a mere 8.3 points per game, which is good for second-worst in the country(Iowa currently ranks dead last, which is a shocker…but also a very Iowa thing to do).

New Mexico State runs a two-quarterback system. With Gavin Frakes and Diego Pavia getting reps as the starting quarterback, and it has been sub-optimal, to say the least. “If you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none,” said the late, great John Madden.

Frakes and Pavia have combined for six interceptions and only one touchdown pass in their three previous games.

Pavia does have 119 rushing yards (he’s the Aggie’s leading rusher as a part-time quarterback, which is fucking wild) on 23 carries with two touchdowns on the season. Making him a much more significant threat than the Frakes, who is just a freshman. Expect him to start and possibly play the whole game.

I said this last week, and it burned me, but the Aggies will need to play the game of their life to win this one.


Wisconsin Badgers

For the Badgers, this is undoubtedly a prove-it game. Is this year’s team for real? Is Paul Chryst the right coach for this program? Every time Wisconsin struggles, this will be a question, with Jim Leonhard waiting in the wings.

Last week the Badgers struggled mightily, committing 11 penalties and turning it over three times in plus territory.

Graham Mertz played reasonably well but didn’t get the protection he needed from the offensive line or additional help from the receiving corps.

Clay Cundiff was the most impressive receiving option against Washington State, registering four receptions for 59 yards and two touchdowns.

Not surprising to see a tight end thriving in a Bobby Engram offense. Look for the Badgers to keep utilizing this strategy.

As for the running game, the Badgers need to be more physical. It all starts with Braelon Allen, so look for him to set the tone early.

This week is going to be a huge statement for the big fellas up front. The Aggies have ZERO business competing in this contest.

New Mexico State only has three sacks and one forced turnover the entire season. There is no reason the Wisconsin Badgers shouldn’t be able to do whatever they want.


Best Bets for the Wisconsin Badgers

Last week wasn’t the best, but it could’ve gone a lot worse. I went 2-2 on the week, cashing in on two unders. Under 49.5 for the game(final total was 31) and the under for the 2nd half as well. 

  • Under 46.5(-110) – Wisconsin is historically an under team. The defense probably won’t give up many points, and I wouldn’t bank on the Badgers scoring over 40. 
  • Defensive or Special Teams touchdown(+229) – As long as these are plus odds, I will bet on the defense to score a touchdown every week. Don’t give a fuck how much money I lose.
  • New Mexico State +37.5(-110) – The Badgers “should” dominate this game, but I don’t see them winning by 38 points. Diego Pavia’s rushing ability from the quarterback position will allow the Aggies to score just enough to cover. 
  • Longest Touchdown over/under 54.5(over +108) – This is my favorite bet of the week. I could see the Badgers breaking off a big play to start the game. If the running game clicks, there’s always a chance for a big gain with Wisconsin’s talent at running back.

To place your own bets with BadgerNotes partner – MyBookie.AG – Click here


You can follow me on Twitter @FrznPizzaCooperThere you’ll find jokes, plenty of music takes, offensive line talk (especially anything Larry Allen related), Larry Bird highlights (I got a thing for Larry’s what can I say), and of course my work for badgernotes.com.

Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Always bet responsibly.

Badgers Country. Let’s ride.

Aug 31, 2013; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin Badgers helmets sit on the field during warmups prior to the game against the Massachusetts Minutemen at Camp Randall Stadium. Wisconsin won 45-0. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Game breakdown and Best bets: Week 1 No. 18 Wisconsin vs. Illinois State

With the college football season returning, we’re excited to bring you our weekly betting article at badgernotes.com. Each week I’ll be breaking down the Badger’s matchup and reviewing my favorite bets for the game.

The No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers open the season Saturday, September 3, against the Illinois State Redbirds at Camp Randall Stadium. Kickoff is at 6 pm CST(FS1). 

With Illinois State being an FCS opponent, betting lines are next to impossible to find for the contest. And if you can find any action on this game, bless your heart, but it’s probably best to stay away.


Game Breakdown

Wisconsin football is known to play down to their competition, no matter the sport. But the Redbirds, who went 4-7 in 2021, don’t stand a chance in this game.

Expect the Badgers to do what they do best, run the damn ball, and play exceptional defense. And don’t be surprised if the defense finds paydirt against the lowly Redbirds. Especially with many new faces trying to prove the Badgers are still capable of having the number one defense in the country.

As for the offense, expect Bob Bostad’s offensive line to dominate. The size and pure physicality will be too much for the Redbirds to handle. Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi should be able to run all over this defense, which gave up an average of 137.5 rushing yards per game against FCS competition last year and a total of 351.3 yards per game in 2021. Both backs could easily crack 100 yards in this game.

As for the passing game, all you can hope for is a mistake-free and consistent day for Graham Mertz. It will be interesting to see how Mertz and the practically brand-new receiving corps mesh in week 1. Chimere Dike is the only returning receiver with a significant amount of production last season, registering 19 receptions for 272 yards and one touchdown.

New offensive coordinator Bobby Engram joins the Badgers coaching staff after spending eight years with the Baltimore Ravens. One thing to monitor on the offense is the usage of tight ends in the running and passing game. The Ravens consistently used packages with 3-4 tight ends, and Mark Andrews became one of the premier receiving tight ends in the NFL under Engram.


Best Bets

With no betting lines for this week, here are a few futures to bet on if you’re feeling dangerous:

  • Wisconsin to win the Big Ten West +155
  • Wisconsin to win the Big Ten Championship +1000
  • Wisconsin to win the National Championship +8000
  • Braelon Allen to win the Heisman +6000

The only one here worth putting a sizable wager on is +155 to win the Big Ten West. Iowa(+360) and Minnesota(+425) are the only real threats to the Badgers in this division.

Check back next week for our breakdown and favorite bets as Wisconsin takes on the Washington State Cougars.


You can follow me on Twitter @FrznPizzaCooper
There you’ll find jokes, plenty of music takes, offensive line talk (especially anything Larry Allen related), Larry Bird highlights (I got a thing for Larry’s what can I say), and of course my work for badgernotes.com.

Join the Badger Notes watch party and stream Wisconsin games for FREE by clicking this link.

Badgers country, let’s ride.