Wisconsin men's basketball using 'simple math' to modify shot selection
The Wisconsin Badgers basketball team enters 2024-25 with a more analytic-driven approach and will feature a three-point-heavy offense under Greg Gard.
Wisconsin Badgers head coach Greg Gard knows times are changing, and if his program is going to keep pace in the ever-evolving landscape of college basketball, they’ll need to adapt—or risk getting left behind.
The Badgers restructured their coaching staff this offseason, bringing in former Wisconsin center Greg Stiemsma as the Director of Player Development and retaining Kirk Penney in a full-time role as the de facto offensive coordinator. They also hired Isaac Wodajo as the new Director of Recruiting and added Lance Randall to replace Dean Oliver.
But beyond the staffing shake-up, Wisconsin men's basketball had already begun implementing changes last season that will continue to evolve during the 2024-25 season. The most noticeable shift? A more analytical-based approach to shot selection to pair with their system.
Badgers Coaches Embracing the 3-Point Revolution
So, what does this 'three-point revolution' look like in practice? Expect the Badgers to aim for 25 to 30 three-point attempts per game.
"I look at our shot distribution, we're trying to minimize and eliminate mid-range twos," Gard explained on The Swing. "If you look at anything analytically, nationally, you study what the NBA does, and it makes sense. You want things at the rim and in the paint, where you're going to get fouled, and you want to minimize the long, contested 15-foot twos."
In the exhibition contest against UW-River Falls, Wisconsin knocked down 11-of-32 three-point attempts. Why does that number matter? For reference, the Badgers hit their season high in attempts from beyond the arc with 32 in an overtime win over Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament.
"I mean, you look at the analytics, we've studied a lot of teams, I mean simple math, the three is worth more than two," Gard told reporters. "Do we just throw it inside more at certain times? Yes. But we're going to have to shoot threes because that's where the game is."
Coach Gard has worked closely with Special Assistant Kirk Penney to modify the Badgers' offensive system. Those changes quickly led to results, with Wisconsin averaging 74.7 points per game last season—the program's highest in 30 years—and finishing 17th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.
This season, part of the Badgers' continued evolution involved adding more experience and shooting from the transfer portal. As fans saw in the game against UW-River Falls, Wisconsin opted not to start a traditional point guard, instead rolling with a lineup of Max Klesmit, John Blackwell, John Tonje, Nolan Winter, and Steven Crowl.
While having a starting five without a point guard in the lineup is a different approach than we've seen from Wisconsin during the Gard era, it's one that this staff is more than comfortable with.
"If you don't have a point guard or if you've got an injured point guard, you'll be fine," Penney shared with Badgernotes. " If you have guys that can handle the ball really well, it's great for the offense because you get into it quicker.
“I think traditional positionings, you still have to shed some thought to it, but with this offense, there are lots of ways to play it really well, and it won't necessarily be traditionally positioned."
If Coach Gard's vision for a more three-point-heavy approach comes to fruition, we're looking at a significant jump in Wisconsin's attempts from beyond the arc. For context, the Badgers averaged 20.3 three-point attempts per game last season, hitting 256 of their 734 tries. That total falls in line with Gard's career average of 716 attempts per season over his time at Wisconsin, with his all-time high of 807 happening in 2022-23.
But Gard is aiming to take that number even further. At 25 to 30 attempts per game, the Badgers would project to shoot around 850-1,020 threes this season if they played 34 games—a considerable leap from anything we’ve seen during Gard's tenure. That shift would add a new dimension to their offense and align with their new analytics-driven strategy, one that's banking on three-point efficiency as a key to offensive success.
The big question, of course, is whether the Badgers have enough shooters to make this high-volume approach worth the risk. But looking at the roster, there’s reason to believe they could. Blackwell (45.5%), Crowl (44.8%), and Klesmit (39.8%) all shot well from beyond the arc last season, giving Wisconsin a solid core of returning three-point threats.
Add in Tonje, a career 37% shooter from three, and Xavier Amos, who hit 38.5% from deep last year at Northern Illinois, and suddenly, the Badgers have a much deeper lineup of shooters than they did last season, at least on paper. What’s more, Wisconsin men's basketball can now roll out five legitimate shooting threats at once, stretching the floor and ideally setting up tougher matchups for opposing defenses.
"We just need to fine-tune a couple of things on selection, and you got to keep shooting," said Gard. "Even though we shot 32 [3's], we were over a point per possession [1.258], making 11. It looks like we didn't shoot it well, but that's still 33 points on 32 shots. What happens when we make 18 of 32?”
This team may not have a single elite scoring presence to shoulder the load, but it’s the collective depth and versatility that could make this approach effective if everything breaks right. It’s a new era for Wisconsin basketball, and if Gard and his staff can get everyone firing on all cylinders, the Badgers may just outperform their modest expectations.
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