Why Wisconsin men's basketball could make a run in the NCAA Tournament

Wisconsin has the scoring ability, health, and improving defense to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. Here’s why the Badgers could be a tough out in March.

Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Wisconsin Badgers basketball team is heading into the NCAA Tournament as a No. 3 seed with all the tools to make a run.

Greg Gard’s veteran-laden team has been battle-tested in the Big Ten, finishing tied for fourth in the regular season and making a strong push to the conference tournament final against Michigan.

Now, they’ll open against 14-seed Montana in Denver, looking to build on that momentum. And as Gard put it, this isn’t the time for reinvention.

"When you're in this time of year, you have to trust who you are," Gard said. "We're not going to change a whole lot. You trust your preparation, what has got you to this point, and the success you've had."

And let’s be honest—the Badgers need this run. It’s been seven years since Wisconsin last reached the second weekend of the tournament, and for a program built on consistency, that’s a streak they’re eager to end. This team wasn’t even supposed to be in this position—picked to finish 12th in the Big Ten during the preseason, they’ve shattered expectations and made for one of the better seasons in recent memory.

In the transfer portal era, there are no guarantees Wisconsin will be able to construct another roster that’s this talented, experienced, and fully bought in. A group like this doesn’t come around often, and when you have the pieces to make a run, you have to capitalize.

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So, what makes this year’s Wisconsin men's basketball team capable of making noise in the Big Dance? It starts with an offense full of shooters that can flat-out score, a roster that’s finally healthy, and a defense that has quietly made meaningful strides in the last two months.

Wisconsin has plenty of offensive firepower

One of the biggest differences with this Wisconsin team compared to years past? It doesn’t go through the long offensive droughts that have plagued so many Badgers teams before it. When this team gets behind, there’s no panic—because it has the firepower to erase deficits quickly.

Wisconsin’s revamped offense has hovered around the top 10 nationally in efficiency for most of the season, finishing at No. 13 in KenPom—and much of that success has been fueled by the emergence of grad transfer John Tonje, who is averaging a team-high 19.2 points per game.

But his production isn’t just a result of talent—it’s also about fit.

Wisconsin's staff did its homework before adding him to the roster, and Coach Gard couldn’t have been more complimentary about all of the reasons that have led to Tonje thriving in this system.

“We dug probably deeper into the Colorado State film than we did anything else,” Gard said of Tonje’s recruitment. “We trusted how he was coached… what’s made the transition so seamless is how selfless he is. He’s come in with zero ego, and he’s really coachable."

That work ethic has paid off, and Tonje’s ability to fit into Wisconsin’s system has been a game-changer. After losing Second-Team All-Big Ten guard AJ Storr to the transfer portal, the Badgers landed Tonje—at a fraction of the cost—and he’s delivered First-Team All-Big Ten output.

On top of that, Tonje was recognized as a Second-Team All-American by the Associated Press, proving just how valuable he’s been to this team.

Gard pointed to the fact that Tonje has embraced being part of a structured team and has consistently looked for ways to improve since he stepped onto campus.

“You would think in this day and age, a guy that's coming in in his sixth year, third school, that he’d come in with a lot more answers than questions—and he’s been the exact opposite,” Gard explained.

“He knows he has more to get better at. He’s gotten better as the year’s gone on. He’s a great teammate. The biggest reason he’s been such a great fit and been so successful is his selfless mentality."

Tonje’s evolution as a player has been evident on both ends of the floor. He came to Wisconsin to provide scoring but needed to improve defensively, and Gard credited him for making big strides.

“He had work to do defensively, and he’s made great strides on the defensive end,” Gard said. “And then offensively, I think the system has helped him. It’s put him in great positions to have success.”

That ability to step into a defined role and produce is a big reason why Tonje has become Wisconsin’s go-to option in key moments. His steady demeanor, ability to take over games, knock down tough shots, get to the charity stripe, and overall willingness to do whatever the team needs make him a perfect fit for a group looking to make a deep tournament run.

“He’s steady Eddie—he doesn’t get too high, he doesn’t get too low,” Gard said. “He's a worker, he's a gym rat, and he's self-made. When you have people that put in the time and commit and come the long, hard way, it’s even more gratifying when you see them have success.

“Specifically in today’s world.”

With Tonje leading the way, Wisconsin has a true go-to scorer—something every team needs in March. He's also complimented by John Blackwell—and a starting five where everyone is averaging more than nine points per game, which is complemented by solid bench depth.

And with an offense this efficient, the Badgers aren't likely to find themselves in the scoring droughts that have plagued past teams. Fingers crossed.

Health is finally on Wisconsin’s side

There’s no sugarcoating it—Wisconsin’s early exit from last year’s NCAA Tournament was at least partly due to injuries piling up at the wrong time, a theme that’s plagued the Badgers several times over the years.

That’s not the case this year. The Badgers enter March about as healthy as you could reasonably ask for this time of year.

Max Klesmit is back in the starting lineup after recovering from a lower-body injury, while Nolan Winter has been cleared and even performed well in the Big Ten Tournament after suffering a shoulder injury in the regular-season finale against Penn State. With both available, Gard has his full nine-man rotation intact—a luxury Wisconsin's staff hasn't always had.

“I think we're in a better place from a health standpoint. We were a little banged up when we came out of the Big Ten Tournament last year,” Gard admitted. “I think we’re built differently as a team now. Our depth and how we play is a little different. We’ve evolved offensively.

"We’ve come down the stretch since early February with a plan to be ready for March, scaling back and using recovery techniques to help our guys get better."

Learning from past mistakes, Wisconsin’s staff took a more measured approach to manage workloads down the stretch, scaling back where needed to keep players fresh for March—a luxury afforded by this team’s depth. That plan paid off in the Big Ten Tournament, where the Badgers regained their rhythm with a deep run while maintaining their health.

Now, with a fully intact nine-man rotation, Wisconsin enters the NCAA Tournament with the nation’s No. 13 offense in adjusted efficiency and a defense ranked 28th—a well-balanced formula for making a run.

The defense is trending up

Wisconsin’s offense hasn’t been the issue. Coach Gard and his staff understand college basketball analytics as well as ever, and they knew exactly what needed to change for this team to have a legitimate shot at making a run in the tournament.

Since 2002, 95% of national champions have entered the NCAA Tournament with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 21st or better. The Badgers? Check. That part was never in question.

But defense was another story.

That same trend shows that 95% of champions had an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 37th or better, with every single one ranking at least 44th. That’s where Wisconsin needed to improve if it wanted to go from a good Big Ten team to a serious contender.

And while it wasn’t perfect, Gard’s team responded in a big way down the stretch. Over the last two months, the Wisconsin Badgers drastically improved as a team defensively, climbing all the way to No. 28 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Check.

That improvement was on full display in the Big Ten Tournament, where Wisconsin held opponents to just 35.4% shooting from the field (85-of-240) across four games—proving they can lock in defensively when it matters most.

“I think the Big Ten Tournament was good for us—we got our defensive bite back, and our recovery plan of how we wanted to approach once we got to this month is right where we needed to be,” Gard said.

It’s been a noticeable turnaround from where this team was earlier in the season.

“Two months ago, we were in the 40s and 50s defensively, and that’s an area we needed to improve,” Gard admitted. “Now we’re top 30 or close to it. The target was to be top 25 or top 30 defensively and top 10 offensively… you need to be good on both ends to play deep into March.”

It’s not just about understanding the numbers—it’s about making the necessary adjustments. Wisconsin’s staff recognized the problem and committed to fixing it. The Badgers now enter March Madness with a far more balanced team than the one we saw earlier in the season.

This team has proven it can win in multiple ways. When shots are falling, the Badgers have the firepower to outscore opponents. But when the offense isn’t clicking, they’ve shown they can grind out wins with physical, disciplined defense—a critical trait for surviving in March.

That versatility makes them a tough out in a tournament setting.

Final thoughts

Wisconsin has all the ingredients for a deep NCAA Tournament run—an elite offense with a true go-to scorer, a roster that’s finally healthy, and a defense that’s rounding into form at the right time.

If the Badgers continue playing at this level, don’t be surprised if they’re still dancing deep into March. Greg Gard and his staff have done everything necessary to modernize this program and adapt to the ever-changing landscape of college basketball—they deserve to get the Sweet 16 drought monkey off their back.

Wisconsin’s program deserves this.

Of course, in a one-and-done, single-elimination tournament, anything can happen. But this Wisconsin men's basketball team has the pieces to break through to the second weekend, and if they get there—as we all know—anything can happen from that point forward.

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