Game Breakdown and Best Bets: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan State Spartans
The Wisconsin Badgers travel to East Lansing to play at Spartan Field on Saturday; here are the best bets for week 7.
The Wisconsin Badgers weren’t the only ones to score a big win last Saturday with their 42-7 victory over the Northwestern Wildcats. I went 4-1 on my best bets for the week and am officially declaring myself ALL THE WAY BACK.
Maybe Paul Chryst was holding me back from being the greatest gambler of all time? Is Jim Leonhard my good luck charm? Or was it the fact I made all of my picks slightly intoxicated? We may never know…
We’ll find out if the Badgers and I can keep the good luck going this Saturday, as Wisconsin (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten) will hit the road once again to take on the Michigan State Spartans (2-4, 0-3 Big Ten). Kickoff is at 3:00 pm (CST) on Fox.
To find all of our content for this week’s game, visit badgernotes.com.
Game Breakdown
The Michigan State Spartans are not good.
MSU gave Mel Tucker a 10-year, 95 million-dollar contract this offseason, and all he has to show for it is wins over Western Michigan and Akron. The Spartans have lost four in a row, and the road won’t get easier on Saturday against what seems to be a revitalized Wisconsin Badgers football team.
Offensively, the Spartans implement a fairly balanced attack, throwing 202 passes and 165 rush attempts. However, neither has yielded great results.
Quarterback Payton Thorne has not been able to duplicate his success from last season, which has undoubtedly played a massive part in the Spartans’ struggles this year.Â
Thorne has thrown for 1,234 yards, nine touchdowns, and seven interceptions through six games – while completing a mediocre 63.9% of his passes.
To be fair, lackluster wide receiver play from the Spartans has not helped Thorne one bit.
Jayden Reed, Keon Coleman, and Tre Mosley have been the top options for Thorne. With each collecting over 20 receptions and 200 yards this season.
While all three receivers have posted similar numbers, Jayden Reed is by far the best of the bunch.
Last season Reed had 59 receptions, 1,026 yards, and 10 touchdowns. This year has been tough sledding for him, though, only having 23 receptions, 256 yards, and two touchdowns in five games.
Reed, who opted to return for his Senior season, is a mid-round NFL draft prospect, and though his numbers haven’t been great this year, he could still give the Badgers’ secondary plenty of issues.
As far as the running game goes for the Spartans, it’s been just as bad, if not worse.
As a team, Michigan State has 165 rushing attempts for 644 yards, good for a piss-poor 3.9 yards per carry. To put that in perspective, Badgers’ all-world running back Braelon Allen has totaled 634 yards on the ground all by himself.
Former Badger Jalen Berger has been the lead tailback for the Spartans, rushing the ball 64 times for 308 yards and four touchdowns. Berger also has 10 receptions on the season for 77 yards.
The Spartans’ offense will be a little more challenging than Northwestern’s for the Badgers, but I still think they will shut them down for the most part.
Spartans’ Defense
To put it lightly, the Spartans’ defense is a dumpster fire.
MSU is giving up an absurd 445.5 yards per game, 292 of those coming through the air – and 153.5 on the ground.
They’ve allowed over 34 points in three of their last four games, and I expect that trend to continue against the Badgers.
Linebacker Jacoby Windmon will be the player the Badgers’ offense will need to worry about the most. Windmon has 26 tackles, 5.5 sacks (4 came against Western Michigan), and five forced fumbles this season.Â
If the Badgers can neutralize him, Sparty will be in big trouble.
Defensive back Kendell Brooks is another player to keep an eye on. Brooks has 57 tackles (18 coming against Minnesota) and three forced fumbles this year.
Wisconsin Badgers
To say Wisconsin’s first game under Jim Leonhard was a smashing success would be the understatement of the year.
Credit to offensive coordinator Bobby Engram as well. Engram seemed way more comfortable calling plays on the sideline and added some nice new wrinkles to the passing attack.
Graham Mertz played in what was arguably his best game as a Badger, Going 20 for 29 passing, 299 yards, and five touchdowns.Â
More importantly, Mertz didn’t force anything and looked calm all game. One of the most impressive stats for Mertz last week was going 7-for-8 passing with one touchdown when blitzed, according to PFF.
Chimere Dike was the biggest beneficiary of Mertz’s big day, putting up career-best numbers himself. Dike balled out, putting up 185 yards on 10 receptions, and added three touchdowns for good measure.
Braelon Allen, did Braelon Allen things – carrying the ball 23 times for 135 yards. He also threw one pass attempt for 23 yards and one touchdown on what was an insanely athletic play by Allen.
Can’t forget about the big boys up front, either. Mertz was only under pressure on 3 of his 29 dropbacks.
Can the offense stay hot?
With the Badgers seeming to have found new life on offense, I think we could see them approach the 40-point mark again. The Spartans are bad on the front and back end of their defense, but I think the Badgers could have more success this week through the air.
I would also love to see a few more deep-passing play designs from Leonhard and Engram. Mertz’s confidence has to be at an all-time high right now – let’s take advantage of it.
If all else fails, I’m confident the Badgers can fall back on their run game.Â
UW is going up against a defense that is, to put it bluntly, lacking talent.
(I know this was more of a game recap from last week than a breakdown for this week, but damn, does the Badgers’ performance last week have me jacked up.)
Wisconsin Badgers Defense
The Badgers came to fucking play on defense against Northwestern. Limiting a pass-heavy offense to 342 yards for the game, most of which came in garbage time.
The biggest question mark was the Badgers’ secondary, and they answered the call, holding quarterback Ryan Hilinski to a measly 147 yards while forcing two interceptions.
This week could be another confidence booster for the secondary, with Spartans quarterback Payton Thorne being very interception prone this season.
I think the pass rush will be a major factor for the Badgers’ defense. Michigan State has only allowed 10 sacks all season, and four of those came in their last game against Ohio State.
Nick Herbig looked back in prime form last week, collecting seven tackles and one sack. If he can repeat that performance against the Spartans, it should be another stellar day for the Badgers’ defense.
Best Bets
Last week was by far my best week of the season, but I need to string a few of those together and get my season record up toward 50%.
Best Bets Season Record: 7-15
The game total – over 49.5 points (-110) – This is a pretty big number to take on a Wisconsin Badger game, as they’ve only had two games this season hit over this total. However, I think Michigan State’s defense is bad enough, and their offense is just decent enough that it will hit this week. The Spartans have hit over this total in three of their six games this season.
Graham Mertz over 237 passing yards (+102) This is my favorite bet of the week – Mertz has only gone over 237 yards in two games this year, but with the Spartans giving up almost 300 yards per game through the air, I’m confident he hits the over.
Chimere Dike over 80 receiving yards (+108) – Dike has only hit over 80 yards in two games this season, and this might be a little recency bias on my part after he put up 185 yards last week. Like I’ve said multiple times, though, the Spartans’ main weakness of defense is their secondary. Dike has the talent to exploit that.
Braelon Allen, first touchdown scorer (+359) – While I do expect the passing attack to excel this week, I’ll bank on the Badgers being close to the goal line and handing it off to their best offensive player.
Defensive or special teams touchdown by either team (+217) – As promised, I will take this bet every week until it hits.
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