Sep 10, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; General view of Camp Randall Stadium during the second quarter of the game between the Washington State Cougars and Wisconsin Badgers. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Game Breakdown and Best Bets: Week 3 Wisconsin vs. New Mexico State

Well, last week against Washington State, the Wisconsin Badgers did what they do best. Play down to their competition.

Was I completely wrong in my game breakdown? Yes. Did I also hit 50% of my best bets? Yes.

It takes a real man to admit when he’s wrong, but an even bigger one to apologize. 

Unfortunately, I’m not that guy. 

The Badgers (now un-ranked) will look to right the ship against the New Mexico State Aggies (0-3), on Saturday, September 17th, at Camp Randall Stadium. Kickoff is at 2:30 pm(CST)

To find all of our content for this week’s game, visit badgernotes.com


Game Breakdown

New Mexico State Aggies

To put it bluntly, the Aggies are one of the worst teams in all of college football.

They have lost 20 straight road games to FBS competition, and you can expect that number to go up by one on Saturday.

The Aggie’s defense allows 350 yards per game, which surprisingly ranks 49th in the nation.

There is good news for the Badgers, though. The Aggies allow 194 rushing yards per game—ranking 111th out of 131 FBS teams.

Their offense, however, only averages 236 yards per game. Ranking them 121st out of a possible 131 teams in the FBS.

To top it off, the Aggies average a mere 8.3 points per game, which is good for second-worst in the country(Iowa currently ranks dead last, which is a shocker…but also a very Iowa thing to do).

New Mexico State runs a two-quarterback system. With Gavin Frakes and Diego Pavia getting reps as the starting quarterback, and it has been sub-optimal, to say the least. “If you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none,” said the late, great John Madden.

Frakes and Pavia have combined for six interceptions and only one touchdown pass in their three previous games.

Pavia does have 119 rushing yards (he’s the Aggie’s leading rusher as a part-time quarterback, which is fucking wild) on 23 carries with two touchdowns on the season. Making him a much more significant threat than the Frakes, who is just a freshman. Expect him to start and possibly play the whole game.

I said this last week, and it burned me, but the Aggies will need to play the game of their life to win this one.


Wisconsin Badgers

For the Badgers, this is undoubtedly a prove-it game. Is this year’s team for real? Is Paul Chryst the right coach for this program? Every time Wisconsin struggles, this will be a question, with Jim Leonhard waiting in the wings.

Last week the Badgers struggled mightily, committing 11 penalties and turning it over three times in plus territory.

Graham Mertz played reasonably well but didn’t get the protection he needed from the offensive line or additional help from the receiving corps.

Clay Cundiff was the most impressive receiving option against Washington State, registering four receptions for 59 yards and two touchdowns.

Not surprising to see a tight end thriving in a Bobby Engram offense. Look for the Badgers to keep utilizing this strategy.

As for the running game, the Badgers need to be more physical. It all starts with Braelon Allen, so look for him to set the tone early.

This week is going to be a huge statement for the big fellas up front. The Aggies have ZERO business competing in this contest.

New Mexico State only has three sacks and one forced turnover the entire season. There is no reason the Wisconsin Badgers shouldn’t be able to do whatever they want.


Best Bets for the Wisconsin Badgers

Last week wasn’t the best, but it could’ve gone a lot worse. I went 2-2 on the week, cashing in on two unders. Under 49.5 for the game(final total was 31) and the under for the 2nd half as well. 

  • Under 46.5(-110) – Wisconsin is historically an under team. The defense probably won’t give up many points, and I wouldn’t bank on the Badgers scoring over 40. 
  • Defensive or Special Teams touchdown(+229) – As long as these are plus odds, I will bet on the defense to score a touchdown every week. Don’t give a fuck how much money I lose.
  • New Mexico State +37.5(-110) – The Badgers “should” dominate this game, but I don’t see them winning by 38 points. Diego Pavia’s rushing ability from the quarterback position will allow the Aggies to score just enough to cover. 
  • Longest Touchdown over/under 54.5(over +108) – This is my favorite bet of the week. I could see the Badgers breaking off a big play to start the game. If the running game clicks, there’s always a chance for a big gain with Wisconsin’s talent at running back.

To place your own bets with BadgerNotes partner – MyBookie.AG – Click here


You can follow me on Twitter @FrznPizzaCooperThere you’ll find jokes, plenty of music takes, offensive line talk (especially anything Larry Allen related), Larry Bird highlights (I got a thing for Larry’s what can I say), and of course my work for badgernotes.com.

Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Always bet responsibly.

Badgers Country. Let’s ride.

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